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Jason Katz | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Overvalued and Undervalued Running Backs
8/23/16


Every year, rest assured someone at some point during each of your drafts will utter some variation of the words “value pick.” But what exactly is a value pick? What is value? Value is a relative term that changes based on public perception. When I consider value, I’m looking for a positive return on my investment. Just because a player has an a 4th round ADP and is still available in the 6th round does not make him good value. At the same time, taking a player a round or two above his ADP is not necessarily bad value.

My goal in every pick I make is to take a player I believe will have a higher ADP the following season. Last season, Devonta Freeman had an 8th round ADP. This year, he has a 2nd round ADP. Freeman gave owners one hell of a positive return on investment. On the flip side, Jeremy Hill had a 2nd round ADP. This year, he has a 6th round ADP. That’s the type of pick we all hope to avoid.

Let’s take a look at which running backs I expect to outperform and underperform their ADPs.

Thomas Rawls

Thomas Rawls (ankle) is back at practice and has a golden opportunity to return RB1 value.

Undervalued

Thomas Rawls, Seahawks
ADP: 3.11

The case for Rawls being undervalued: Rawls led the NFL in yards per carry amongst qualified running backs in 2015 and Beast Mode has retired.

The case against Rawls being undervalued: Seattle is likely going to pass more this year and the Seahawks drafted three running backs that could eat into Rawls’ workload.

Verdict: Rawls does not catch passes. But when you average 5.6 yards per carry, I don’t care if you catch a bunch of passes. Rawls was unstoppable after he took over for Marshawn Lynch midway through 2015. He was on pace for a monster second half until his season was derailed by a gruesome ankle injury. I firmly believe Rawls would be a mid-second round pick had he not gotten hurt. In fact, if the Seahawks weren’t so mum on his status up until August 15 when Rawls finally returned to practice, his ADP would be higher. If Rawls receives 250 carries this season, he is capable of amassing 1300-1400 yards. Since he happens to play on a fantastic offense, he’s a good bet to cross the goal line double digit times as well. Those are high-end RB1 numbers. For a player currently going just outside the top 12 at his position, he has a great chance for a top 20 overall finish. The recent reports regarding Christine Michael’s potentially increased role should only further depreciate Rawls’ value. Now is your opportunity to strike.

Latavius Murray, Raiders
ADP: 4.04

The case for Murray being undervalued: He’s the unquestioned lead back slated for significant volume in a rising offense.

The case against Murray being undervalued: He plays in a tough division and could cede passing down work to rookie DeAndre Washington.

Verdict: I am quite high on Murray; higher than most. He is a rare case of high-floor and high-ceiling. We’ll start with the floor. Murray has little threat to his workload. I don’t want to hear how DeAndre Washington is going to steal his carries. He’s not. If the Raiders thought that running back was an area of need, they would have done more for their backfield than release Roy Helu and spend a fifth round pick on a running back. That’s a vote of confidence in Murray. He touched the ball over 300 times last season and I see no reason he can’t get close to that number again. Jack Del Rio recently went on record to say he wants to give Murray even more carries this year. He totaled just over 1300 rushing and receiving yards last season and now is running behind an improved offensive line (currently ranked in the top five). On we go to his ceiling. In an improving offense, Murray could easily see his yards per carry jump from the 4.0 he averaged in 2015 closer to the 5.2 he averaged in limited action as a rookie. The ypc jump along with a small spike in touchdowns due to the better offense could jump Murray to a 1500-yard, 10-touchdown season. The Raiders also have a very friendly out of division schedule (@ NO, ATL, @TEN, @BAL, @ JAC. @TB, BUF). Murray is currently the 15th RB off the board. I have him ranked 7th at the position. Draft and enjoy.

Carlos Hyde, 49ers
ADP: 4.08

The case for Hyde being undervalued: He performed better than expected in 2015 despite being injured and running behind the worst run blocking offensive line in football.

The case against Hyde being undervalued: The 49ers offense more closely resembles a practice squad than a professional football team.

Verdict: Almost all of the hate towards Hyde stems from the 49ers deplorable offense. While that isn’t entirely unjustified, Hyde has the talent and will see the volume to overcome his team. Hyde was incredibly efficient last year, even with a broken foot (stress fracture), and similarly poor talent around him. He does very well before contact and is even more impressive after he’s hit with almost 70 percent of his yardage in his first two seasons coming after contact. And for all of the heat Chip Kelly takes (as a personnel manager – it’s justified), his offensive system produces rushing totals. Hyde is going to be a three-down back in Chip Kelly’s supersonic offense and what he may lose in touchdowns and his presumed lack of pass catching he will make up for in volume. Hyde has proven to be highly effective running out the shotgun, which Chip Kelly uses almost exclusively, as Hyde spent his entire career running in a similar scheme at Ohio State. He is currently the 17th RB off the board. I expect him to return top 10 value and have him ranked 8th at the position. For those of you that start out WR-WR in your draft, if you grab Hyde and Murray rounds 3-4, you could find yourself in a position of power by midseason.

Overvalued

Lamar Miller, Texans
ADP: 1.11

The case for Miller being overvalued: Miller has never been trusted as a workhorse running back.

The case against Miller being overvalued: Historically, Miller has been very efficient and should see a workload increase in Houston.

Verdict: Miller is a good, not great player in what appears to be a fantastic situation. The biggest criticism against Miller during his time in Miami was their apparent failure to use him like a feature back. There were many games where Miller would dominate early and then be inexplicably taken off the off the field. Why would the Miami coaching staff not give a guy with a career 4.6 ypc more carries? Now he’s in Houston where Arian Foster (who ironically has replaced Miller in Miami) was fed incredible volume for years and the expectation is Miller will see similar volume and thrive. My response to that is…maybe?

Here is what we know: Lamar Miller has been very efficient with the touches he has been given. We also know that two Dolphins’ coaching staffs, separately and individually, decided to not give Miller a true feature back workload. We do not know if Miller can maintain his past level of productivity with more volume and the Texans are working a new quarterback into the system. I think a lot of assumptions are being made about Miller’s new circumstance and that’s a lot of uncertainty to be investing a first round pick on. Miller’s ADP has spiked to the 4th RB selected. In similar draft spots, I’d prefer RB Ezekiel Elliott; or Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall at the wide receiver position. Miller will not have a bad year but his expectations have gotten too high.

Jeremy Langford, Bears
ADP: 5.10

The case for Langford being overvalued: Langford displayed mediocre ability his rookie season and must fight for opportunities in a crowded backfield.

The case against Langford being overvalued: Langford takes hold of the starting job and forces John Fox to abandon his RBBC approach.

Verdict: I don’t know how I can possibly say this nicely – Jeremy Langford stinks. I know. That’s not exactly insightful analysis. Harsh? Yes. True? Let’s find out. Langford averaged 3.6 ypc as a rookie. That’s not very good. Amongst qualified backs, he ranked bottom five. How did he do making guys miss? He forced seven missed tackles last year… on 148 carries, worst in the league. Did he run through defenders? Nope. He was worst in the league in yards after contact. Can he catch passes? He led all running backs in drop rate. Finally, the Bears drafted Jordan Howard, still have Jacquizz Rodgers and Ka’Deem Carey, all of whom will see snaps. Perhaps Langford makes sudden improvements on all of his deficiencies and makes me look like an idiot. All I can do is report what I see and what the numbers say. He’s the 24th RB taken on average but I’d pass on Langford for the majority of running backs in the top 50.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions
ADP: 7.11

The case for Abdullah being overvalued: He was mediocre as a rookie and could fumble his way to the bench on any given Sunday.

The case against Abdullah being overvalued: He’s still penciled in atop the depth chart and the Lions figure to run more with an improved offensive line and no Calvin Johnson.

Verdict: He got me with that preseason run against the Jets last season. I was in. All aboard the Ameer Abdullah hype train. Week 1 rolled around and he put that shifty move on the Chargers on his way to the end zone. Look how smart I am! Oops. Abdullah wouldn’t rush for another score until Week 15 against the Saints. He struggled with fumbles and inefficiency and found himself on the bench more often than not. Abdullah only had six games where he saw double-digit carries with a season-high of just 16. He started to perform better down the stretch last season, but those performances came against poor run defenses and he still wasn’t seeing the workload necessary to produce relevant fantasy numbers. His ADP is currently late 7th round so the cost isn’t prohibitive, but what exactly are you hoping for?

The Lions signed Stevan Ridley to further muddy the waters in the backfield. While I don’t expect him to carve out any significant role, he could see 2-4 carries a week. Zach Zenner is still in the mix, and looks far and away like the best running back on the team. He has better hands than Abdullah and is a much stronger runner. He should be the feature back with Theo Riddick mixing in on passing downs, but the Lions will likely try and force Abdullah into the offense. Speaking of Riddick, he is a good bet for 60-plus catches, severely limiting any upside Abdullah may have had in the passing game. So what we have is a two-down back that isn’t built to handle a full workload with a more capable player behind him. There are way too moving parts for Abdullah to overcome in 2016. Even as the 33rd RB off the board, I’ll pass.

 




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