Notes:
- Green highllight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
Eagles at Giants
- (Katz) Line: PHI -3.0 Total: 44.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Caron Wentz is back. He is showing no
restrictions from his surgically reconstructed knee throwing for
311 yards and two touchdowns last week. Alshon Jeffery was predictably
erased by Xavier Rhodes so Wentz leaned on Zach Ertz (10-110-1).
Ertz now has double digit targets in every game this season and
double digit receptions in three games. The Giants are only allowing
229 passing yards per game, but they actually have one of the
weaker schedule adjusted pass defenses. Outside of the Saints,
the Giants haven’t faced a single top half of the league
passing offense. This is a great spot for Jeffery to bounce back,
but Nelson Agholor could run into trouble as he’s been relegated
to the third option in this passing game. Perhaps it is Wentz
related, but since Wentz took over, Agholor, who caught 16 balls
over his first two games with Nick Foles, has caught a total of
13 passes over the last three games.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: The Eagles only ran the ball 12 times
last week as they were in comeback mode, but, once again, no Eagles
RB reached the 50% snap threshold. Both Jay Ajayi and Wendell
Smallwood played 49% of the snaps with Smallwood more involved
in the passing game with a 3-44-1 line. Smallwood is a better
player and now no longer has to worry about Ajayi stealing snaps
after he tore his ACL against the Vikings. The Eagles offense
revolves around Wentz, which means Smallwood is a solid play.
He will split the work with Corey Clement, who has missed the
last two games with a quad issue. Josh Adams will enter the rotation
as well, but look for this to be more of a 45-45-10 split. The
Giants are coming off a game where they mostly contained Christian
McCaffrey on the ground (17-58), but did allow him to catch five
passes. The Giants are allowing 4.6 yards per carry against and
the Eagles have a strong run blocking offensive line.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Eli Manning threw for 326 yards and two
touchdowns against the Panthers, but also had two very bad interceptions.
Odell Beckham Jr. finally caught a touchdown, but not before he
threw one to Saquon Barkley. Beckham has nothing to fear from
an Eagles secondary that was just thrashed by Adam Thielen and
Stefon Diggs for a combined 17-207-1. Beckham should show well
on Thursday along with Sterling Shepard, who has excelled in Evan
Engram’s absence. I fully expect Engram to return Week 7
so Shepard owners should enjoy one last hurrah as the clear second
option in the passing game. The Eagles are currently ranked bottom
10 in pass defense and they allow 277 passing yards per game.
On a short week, you never know how players will perform, but
this is a game where the Giants should lean more on the pass to
score points.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Saquon Barkley has nowhere to run, but
is such a talented player that he still posts elite fantasy numbers
through his receiving ability. Barkley managed just 48 yards on
15 carries last week, but added a season high 81 receiving yards
on four receptions, including two that went for scores. Barkley
is one of the select few reliable RB1s. The Eagles only allow
3.4 yards per carry to opposing rushers and are a top half team
at defending running back receptions, but Barkley is such a heavy
piece of the Giants’ offense that it doesn’t matter.
He will volume his way to RB1 numbers and if he’s efficient,
or if he can score, he will post elite numbers.
Bucs at Falcons
- (Bales) Line: ATL -3.0 Total: 57.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Atlanta Falcons have struggled against
the pass, allowing 277 passing yards per game this season. They
have also allowed 12 passing touchdowns with only four interceptions
through five games. Jameis Winston will draw the start coming
off of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bye week. He attempted 20 passes
in his only half on the field this season, and he could see 35+
attempts this week if his workload mirrors Ryan Fitzpatrick, who
started during Winston’s suspension. Given the high projected
total, this a great spot for everyone involved in the Bucs passing
game.
Mike Evans has been enjoying an elite season, averaging a 7.3
/ 106.5 / 0.8 line on 9.8 targets per game. He also leads the
Bucs with a 26.2% target share. DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin
have both looked outstanding, somewhat splitting snaps. Jackson
has needed only 22 targets to record 17 receptions for 424 yards
and three touchdowns. He has scored 15+ fantasy points in three
of his four games this season. Godwin hasn’t been quite
as successful, posting a 15/193/3 line on 22 targets, but has
also scored double-digit fantasy points in three of his four games.
It’s worth mentioning that Adam Humphries has been a long-time
favorite of Jameis Winston, and he saw a season-high seven targets
last week. Cameron Brate’s status is dependent on O.J. Howard’s
status. If Howard (knee) is healthy, they will split snaps and
neither make great options. If Howard is out, Brate will make
a great option in this game.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running Game Thoughts: The Falcons have struggled against the
run this season, allowing their opponents to average 121.4 rush
yards per game. That may not matter, though, as the Bucs are utilizing
a running back by committee approach. Ronald Jones saw his first
action of the season against the Chicago Bears during the fourth
week. He will likely lead the Bucs in touches over Peyton Barber
this week, but neither has performed well enough to be used this
week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have featured
the worst pass defense in the NFL this season, allowing a league-high
358 passing yards per game. They have also allowed 13 passing
touchdowns with only one interception through four games. Matt
Ryan has looked elite at home, where he’s averaging 355
passing yards and 3.3 passing touchdowns per game this season.
Ryan has also scored 29+ fantasy points in each of his three home
games.
Julio Jones has been an elite option, totaling 34 receptions
for 564 yards, although he has yet to find the end zone. It’s
only a matter of time before he sees positive touchdown regression,
right? Mohamed Sanu ranks second on the Falcons in targets (31),
and he has been heating up recently. After recording a 6/35/0
line in his first two games, he has posted a 14/220/2 line over
his last three games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in each
of those games. Calvin Ridley is the other receiver that can be
considered, as he has flashed elite upside. He struggled a bit
in his last game, but posted 16.7, 40.5, and 21.5 fantasy points
in his three games prior. Austin Hooper is coming off of his best
game of the season, catching nine passes for 77 yards on 12 targets.
He gets an elite matchup, as the Bucs rank near the bottom of
the NFL against tight ends. The entire passing attack can be considered
in this matchup.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Devonta Freeman returned from injury last
week, splitting snaps with Tevin Coleman. Neither player looked
great in that game and Tampa Bay is allowing only 87.8 rushing
yards per game this season. Freeman and Coleman both come with
some upside, but this is a situation that is better to avoid,
especially in this matchup. If you’re in a tight spot and
Freeman (toe) is ruled out, then Coleman becomes a viable option
as he’s likely to 18 to 21 touches. Ito Smith would also
see carries in a backup role if Freeman is ruled out.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ben Roethlisberger has been a fantasy
stud through the first five games of the season, with four games
of at least 22 fantasy points, including a 41.5 behemoth at home
against the Chiefs Week 2. Although he enters Week 6 as the No.8
ranked fantasy quarterback in points per game, Big Ben is on pace
to set a career-best of 27.4 FPts/G, nearly five points per game
higher than his 2009 season when he threw for 4,328 yards and
26 touchdowns.
As is often the case with squeaky wheel superstars who complain
about not getting production, Antonio Brown came through with
six catches for 101 yards and two scores last week. It was the
first 20-plus point game for Brown and the first time he reached
the century mark in yardage this season.
Brown’s elevated usage and strong play by the Steelers
defense relegated JuJu Smith-Schuster to just four catches for
34 yards on four targets. Although the second-year budding star
salvaged his low volume day with a touchdown, he now has failed
to reach double figures in both of his previous two games after
starting off hot.
Both players are excellent starts and must-plays this week against
the Bengals secondary that allows the 18-most fantasy points to
wide receivers. Five wide receivers, including all three Atlanta
wide receivers, reached double-digit fantasy points against Cincinnati
this season. The Bengals have done a decent job in limiting opposing
wide receivers to just five total touchdowns in five games, but
they have allowed 73 catches so far in 2018, which is tied with
New England for the seventh-most.
Tight ends have also found success against the Bengals (ninth-most
points to opposing TE), making Vance McDonald an interesting high-risk/high/reward
play. But starting McDonald could backfire, like the one catch,
six-yard turd he gave to his fantasy owners in Week 5.
One factor that could make the tight end matchup more favorable
for Big Ben is the likely absence of starting linebacker Preston
Brown who left last week’s game against the Dolphins with
an ankle injury.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: James Conner came through with a big day
against the Falcons last week, with 185 total yards and two touchdowns.
It was the second 30-plus point game for the second-year back
from the University of Pittsburgh and the second time in which
Connor reached the century mark in rushing yards. With the likely
return of Le’Veon Bell just two weeks away, Conner is making
a case to still be involved in the offense even with Bell back,
and he is also making the thought of trading Bell more palatal
for Steeler fans.
It will be interesting to see if Conner will be able to parlay
his Week 5 performance into another strong showing against the
Bengals. Although Cincy ranks 12th in fantasy points allowed to
RBs, they have allowed only two rushing touchdowns on the year.
Aside from Christian McCaffrey’s 184-yard game Week 3, no
other back has managed to run for more than 63 yards.
On the positive note for Conner owners, he should be able to
make up for any shortcomings on the ground with a strong showing
in the air. The Bengals can be beaten in the air, as evident by
the seven-catch performance last week by Kenyon Drake and the
fact that the Bengals are tied with the Jets for seventh in catches
allowed out of the backfield.
Passing
Game Thoughts: You may not know it based on the fact
that he currently ranks 15th overall among fantasy quarterbacks,
but Andy Dalton is on pace to set career highs in passing touchdowns,
passing yards, completion percentage, and fantasy points. The
Red Rifle reached the 20-point plateau in four of his five games,
highlighted by a 30.2-point barrage in Week 4 against the Falcons.
As one would expect of a quarterback having a solid start to
the season, star wide receiver A.J. Green is also off to a great
start, with 409 yards and five receiving touchdowns. Like Dalton,
Green is well on his way to posting career numbers accros the
board, and his 14.2 fantasy points per game ranks just behind
Adam Thielen and Cooper Kupp.
Two other significant factors that have propelled the Bengals
to 4-1 atop the AFC North are the improved play of the offensive
line and the emergence of Joe Mixon as one of the most talented
and multi-dimensional tailbacks in the NFL. With an offensive
line giving Dalton more time to pass, the Bengals rank 16th in
total offense this season after finishing dead last in 2017.
The good times should continue to roll for Dalton and the skill
portion players for the Bengals this week with Pittsburgh coming
to town. Only the lowly Bucs have allowed more points to opposing
quarterbacks than the Steelers, and only the Bucs and Saints have
allowed more points to wide receivers. Everyone should fire up
all of their shares of Green, Tyler Boyd, and Mixon, and Dalton
is an attractive play in both cash and tournament DFS. The odds-makers
in Vegas believe this game will be the second-highest scoring
contest this week after the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game, and fantasy
owners should try to get a piece wherever possible.
The Steelers enter the game relatively healthy on the defensive
side of the ball. Defensive back Morgan Burnett is dealing with
a groin injury that forced him to miss Sunday’s game against
the Falcons. Also, starting linebacker Vince Williams was unable
to play Week 5 due to a hamstring injury. Both players will likely
be questionable for the game on Sunday against the Bengals.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Running Game Thoughts: Joe Mixon showed no signs of lingering
issues from a knee procedure that cost the former Oklahoma Sooner
two weeks of action. Mixon showed a quick burst and power out
of his cuts last week against the Dolphins, with 115 total yards
and one receiving touchdown for 17.5 fantasy points. Although
the sample size is limited, Mixon ranks eighth among running backs
this season in average points per game, ahead of first-round picks
Zeke Elliott and Kareem Hunt.
Mixon’s value may be found more in the receiving game this
week as opposed to on the ground against a Steelers team that
allows the fifth-fewest points to running backs. Running up the
middle against Cam Heyward, Javon Hargrave, and Stephon Tuitt
has proven to be a difficult task, and something teams have tried
to avoid, especially when the Steeler pass defense is so poor.
But that doesn’t mean that offensive coordinator Bill Lazor
will not try to establish the run with the hope of slowing down
the pace of the game and establishing play action passing for
Dalton. Although the Bengals offense is much improved, they do
not want to get into a shootout against the Steelers.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers has been what we’ve
expected, throwing at least 2 TDs in every game and giving you
roughly low-end QB1 production. Through five weeks he ranks as
the QB12 for quarterbacks that have played more than two games,
despite being a zero in the running game. The passing attack spreads
the ball around to three different receivers and two different
running backs making it difficult to get ceiling games from Keenan
Allen who’s primarily used on short, low aDOT throws. With
Travis Benjamin (foot) a candidate for the inactive list, the
target distribution should be condensed to Allen, Mike Williams
and Tyrell Williams. Tight ends Antonio Gates and Virgil Green
simply do not receive enough opportunities to be considered as
anything more than a dart throw.
The Browns have done a respectable job on defense this season
ranking in the middle of the pack in FPts allowed to quarterbacks
and receivers with only 7 passing TDs allowed and two receivers
(JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper) to gain over 100 yards. With
an over/under in the mid-40s it’s unlikely this game shoots
out which is likely to keep Rivers in the low-end QB1 or high-end
QB2 area. Vertical receivers haven’t found the endzone against
this Browns secondary with Ted Ginn Jr. (4-55-0), Robby Anderson
(2-22-0) and John Brown (4-58-0) turning in mediocre performances
meaning Allen is most likely to have a big game over one the Williams
brothers (yes, I know they’re not brothers) who are seeing
roughly 4 targets per game.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: Through five games Melvin Gordon has been
performing like a first round draft pick totaling 6 touchdowns
and ranking as the RB3 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Gordon
is also bucking his inefficient label, currently sporting a healthy
4.6 yards per carry. He’s sharing a 75-25 split with Austin
Ekeler who’s carved out a meaningful role in this offense
especially as a receiver where’s he’s already notched
three touchdowns from Philip Rivers. You may consider the Chargers
to be a pass-first team, but they rank 16th in rushing attempts
per game, squarely in the middle of the pack and 21st in pass
attempts per game.
Cleveland has given up the 11th most fantasy points to running
backs this season, getting blasted by James Conner in Week 1 (31-135-2;
5-57-0) and Marshawn Lynch (20-130-0, 3-27) in Week 4. They righted
the ship against the Jets running back duo in Week 3 and limited
the Ravens’ runners to modest totals in Week 5. The Chargers
use of their running backs gives Gordon a safe floor against the
Browns who have yet give up a receiving touchdown to a running
back.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Since taking over the starting job in
Week 4, Baker Mayfield has turned a QB18 and a QB13 performance
while scoring roughly 23 fantasy points in each contest. In a
season where quarterback scoring is through the roof, 3 passing
TDs in two games isn’t enough to crack QB1 status. Mayfield’s
passing options took a hit last week with Rashard Higgins leaving
early with a sprained MCL. In his place, Derrick Willies (?) saw
5 targets, catching 3 for 61 yards. We could assume with a week
to gameplan that Higgins’ normal target share will be spread
across to Jarvis Landry, Antonio Calloway and tight end David
Njoku with Willies seeing more like three targets in a typical
game flow. Speaking of Njoku, he’s racked up 18 targets
since Mayfield took over and makes for fine TE1 option, yes even
against safety Derwin James who’s had a fine start to his
rookie season.
The Chargers have struggled getting sacks this year and have
given up the 9th most fantasy points to quarterbacks but those
stats are skewed a bit by the four-touchdown game allowed to Patrick
Mahomes in Week 1. Still, this is a decent spot for Mayfied who’s
is in line to produce his typical solid QB2 performance that should
feature a lot of medium depth looks for Jarvis Landry and Njoku.
Callaway has struggled with efficiency this year catching 13 of
29 targets and will likely need to find the endzone to hit value.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: Carlos Hyde continues to lead the Browns
backfield in touches each week but lacks efficiency and lacks
targets in the passing game. Duke Johnson continues to be underutilized
seeing about 5 touches per game. Johnson has yet to find the endzone
had has been a bust for fantasy owners hoping a change in offensive
coordinator would breathe new life into the pass-catching back.
A week after rushing 3 times for 105 yards and 2 TDs, you might
think Nick Chubb would be primed for an increase in opportunities.
Nope. He got his 3 carries which turned into 2 yards.
The Chargers have faced the second-fewest rushing attempts (87)
for any team that’s played five games so it’s not
surprising they’ve given up only two rushing TDs on the
season. Todd Gurley is the only RB to crack the 100-yard mark
against them while Kareem Hunt (49), LeSean McCoy (39), and Marshawn
Lynch (31) have all been held to under 50 yards rushing.. There’s
nothing in this matchup that suggests Hyde, Duke and Nick Chubb
will depart from their normal roles, meaning Hyde is an uninspiring
TD-dependent RB2 while Johnson and the rookie can be left on your
bench.
Bills at Texans
- (Bales) Line: HOU -10.0 Total: 41.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Simply put, there is very little to like
about the Buffalo Bills passing game. Josh Allen has flashed upside
because of his rushing potential, but he has thrown for fewer
than 200 yards in each of his last three starts. Houston has been
an average team against the pass this season, but there’s
very little reason to believe Allen will have much success this
week. Zay Jones has been the best receiver for the Bills, and
he has totaled 13 receptions for 164 yards through five games.
It is one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL, and there isn’t
a single receiver or tight end that should be considered in this
matchup.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy hasn’t been given a
large workload for the most part this season, but that wasn’t
the case last week. In his last game, McCoy totaled 108 yards
on 26 touches, although he didn’t find the end zone. Houston
has looked outstanding against the run this season as they are
allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. Buffalo could be down early
in this game, making a McCoy a player to avoid in negative game
script.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Deshaun Watson has been playing at a high
level for the most part this season, averaging 324.2 passing yards
and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. He has also added 201 yards
and one touchdown on the ground through five games. He gets a
matchup against the Buffalo Bills, who are allowing only 235 passing
yards per game, but teams simply haven’t needed to throw
against the Bills. If Houston gets out to a big lead early, which
is likely, they may not throw 40+ times in this game.
DeAndre Hopkins has seen double digit targets in each of his
five games this season, recording a 30.5% target share. He’s
a safe option in a crowded receiver group. Will Fuller is coming
off of a bad game, but scored a touchdown in each of his first
three games this season. He should see a larger role in the offense
as he works back from injury, as well. Keke Coutee is the new
receiver in the offense, totaling 17 receptions for 160 yards
and one touchdown on 22 targets in two games. He has been seeing
short targets that are high percentage throws out of the slot.
Keep in mind, this game could be a blowout early on, which could
limit each players targets. Hopkins is the only safe receiver,
but Fuller and Coutee also come with tremendous upside.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Running Game Thoughts: Lamar Miller was in somewhat of a workhorse
role before his injury, as he saw the majority of the touches
in Houston’s backfield. He’s expected to return to
that role in a game that Houston should be looking to run out
the clock. Buffalo is allowing only 96.2 rushing yards per game
this season, but they have also allowed five rushing touchdowns.
Miller could also see a role in the passing game, making him a
solid option on this slate.
Bears at Dolphins
- (Katz) Line: CHI -3.5 Total: 41.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: The last time we saw Mitchell Trubisky,
he was tossing six touchdowns against the Bucs. The biggest conundrum
entering this week is whether the Bears’ Week 4 game plan
was specific to that particular opponent or a genuine change in
offensive philosophy. We won’t know until we see it, which
places question marks around all of the Bears’ skill position
players. The Dolphins are allowing 65 yards per game to opposing
WR1s and 64 yards per game to opposing WR2s. Allen Robinson is
still the Bears’ leader in targets, but only saw four in
a game where Trubisky threw for 354 yards. I’m much more
intrigued by Taylor Gabriel. He caught all seven of his targets
for 104 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago and will likely
avoid Xavien Howard this week. Gabriel appears to have a better
rapport with Trubisky.
The Dolphins are middle of the pack against the TE, but that
really doesn’t matter since you cannot sit Trey Burton because
he is a walking, breathing TE, which is good enough in 2018. Burton
has yet to see more than six targets in a game so there is some
volume concerns. He is a touchdown dependent option, like most
TEs.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Running Game Thoughts: The same Bears’ conundrum applies
here. If the Bears are going to air it out more, then we will
be seeing a lot of Tarik Cohen. If the Bears intend to do more
of what we saw Weeks 1-3, then it should be back to Jordan Howard.
Cohen had the best game of his young career two weeks ago, touching
the ball 20 times for a total of 174 yards and a touchdown. It
is certainly concerning that in a game featuring positive game
script, Howard had just 11 carries to go along with no targets.
Howard remains somewhat touchdown dependent, but he’s also
seen just two goal line carries this year.
The Dolphins are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, but allow
61.3 yards per game to opposing RBs through the air. For Howard
owners, I fear this may be another Cohen heavy game. Both need
to be in lineups even though one may disappoint.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Ryan Tannehill proved last week why you
can never trust him. He followed up his pathetic 100-yard performance
against the Patriots with a 185 turnover fest against the Bengals.
Tannehill went full DeShone Kizer last week with a pick-six and
a fumble fix in the second half, costing his team the game. Albert
Wilson, Danny Amendola, and Kenny Stills continue to see similar
targets but lack any fantasy relevance. The Bears are second in
the league in sacks despite having only played four games and
allow just 231 yards passing per game. They have also recorded
eight interceptions. This is a bad matchup for the Dolphins and
they simply don’t possess any playmakers in the passing
game, outside of Jakeem Grant who is seldom used, and not of any
use to fantasy owners.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Kenyan Drake rebounded from two dismal
performances to lead the Dolphins in receiving with 69 yards and
a touchdown on seven receptions last week. Drake also rushed six
times for 46 yards. He played 64% of the snaps so there does not
seem to be any move towards Frank Gore. The problem for Drake
is his offense just isn’t good enough to make him useful
regardless of matchup. The Bears allow 3.4 yards per carry and
are the only team in the league yet to allow a rushing touchdown.
They are also best in the league in defending pass catching RBs.
Drake and Gore are avoids this week.
Cardinals @ Vikings
- (Swanson) Line: MIN -10.0 Total: 43.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: Josh Rosen and the Arizona Cardinals won
their first game of the season last week with a 28-18 victory
over the host San Francisco 49ers. Although the game was primarily
decided by a strong defensive performance by the Cardinals, including
a late defensive score off of a C.J. Beathard fumble, Rosen played
well for a rookie and clearly looks to be the better option at
quarterback for the Cardinals.
But from a fantasy perspective, Rosen has little value if he
continues to throw for less than 200 yards and a touchdown per
game. He will also need to improve on his 49% competition rate,
and the Cardinal receiving corps is not doing him any favors with
seven drops on the year.
Expecting a strong performance by Rosen or any of the Cardinals
skill position players in the passing game is a lofty goal as
the team heads north to take on a Vikings defense that appears
to have its groove back. After limiting Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron
Rodgers to just one touchdown apiece, the vaunted Vikings defense
allowed three and five touchdowns respectively to Josh Allen and
Jared Goff. Mike Zimmer’s team appeared to be back on track
last week with a 23-21 road win over the Eagles, limiting Carson
Went to just two passing touchdowns.
Rosen will be tested early with complex blitz packages and disguised
coverages designed to force the rookie to make bad decisions with
the ball. Allen used his legs to beat the Vikings and Goff used
a plethora of weapons, a strong offensive line, and elite play
calling to beat Minnesota Week 4. Rosen does not possess the athleticism
of Allen and he does not have the weapons, offensive line, or
the play calling that Goff enjoyed in his game vs. Minnesota,
leading me to assume that it will be a rough day for the rookie
on Sunday.
The only skill portion player on the Cardinals worthy of a start
is David Johnson, and even then his value really only resides
in his work as a receiving back and a possible goal line carry.
Larry Fitzgerald has been limited with back and hamstring injuries,
making him a risky play at best, while Christian Kirk has flashed
at times but is going to be tested by the Vikings secondary.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Running Game Thoughts: David Johnson enters Week 6 as the No.16
running back in fantasy points per game. Although Johnson is fourth
in the league in touchdown runs, his 13.2 points per game are
well below his breakout 2016 season in which he averaged nearly
21 points per contest. He has yet to post a 100-yard rushing game
and his 3.3 yard per carry average ranks 40th among qualified
running backs.
On a positive note, Johnson has only one game without a touchdown
this season and continues to bail out fantasy owners with a touchdown
in nearly every game. That stat will be tested this week against
the Vikings, a team that has yet to surrender a rushing touchdown
in five games and allows the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing
running backs.
Johnson may find some value this week as receiver out of the
backfield. The Vikings are tied for second in the league with
two receiving touchdowns allowed to RBs, with Kyle Juszczk, Chris
Ivory, Todd Gurley, and Wendell Smallwood all posting games of
at least 44 receiving yards.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Kirk Cousins has done more than enough
so far to live up to his monster free agent contract, with 1688
passing yards and 11 touchdowns in his first five games with the
Vikings. Cousins is on pace to set career marks in passing yards,
passing touchdowns, completion percentage, and most importantly
for fantasy owners, fantasy points per game.
The former Redskin has flourished with the receiving duo of Stefon
Diggs and Adam Thielen, with the latter currently ranked as the
No.1 wide receiver in fantasy with 47 catches for 589 yards and
three touchdowns. Cousins has also incorporated tight end Kyle
Rudolph to the tune of 23 catches for 229 yards and two touchdowns,
with the former Norte Dame currently ranked as the No.10 fantasy
tight end.
The one disappointing aspect of the Viking offense has been the
rushing attack. Injuries to Dalvin Cook and subpar play by the
offensive line and Latavius Murray have the Vikings sitting just
above the Bucs as the worst rushing team in the league. That may
change this week with the possible return of Cook to the starting
lineup from a few games off due to an injured hamstring. Cook
is the most skilled pass-catching running back on the team, and
his absence has been felt in the passing game.
When you consider the fact that the Cardinals rank sixth against
the pass and dead last against the run, it will make sense for
offensive coordinator John DeFilippo to focus on the ground game
this week with Cook and Murray. That’s not to say that Cousins,
Thielen, and Diggs are not must-starts, but it would not surprise
me to see the Vikings defense take over this game and Cousins
not throw the ball as much as in weeks past.
A matchup to watch will be Patrick Peterson against one of the
two top receivers for the Vikings. Statistically speaking Peterson
should shadow Thielen, the leading receiver on the team and Cousins’
favorite target. But he could also line up against Diggs on the
outside and leave Thielen matched up against Jamar Taylor in the
slot, which would be excellent news for Thielen owners.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Running Game Thoughts: With Dalvin Cook out nursing a strained
hamstring, veteran running back Latavius Murray proved to be ineffective
running the ball behind a subpar Viking run-blocking offensive
line. Negative game scripts against Buffalo and the Rams relegated
Murray to just four carries combined in Weeks 3 and 4, and Murray
failed to do much against the Eagles last week with 42 yards on
11 carries.
Assuming that Josh Rosen does not do his best Josh Allen impersonation
and the Vikings do not trail the Cardinals by two touchdowns in
the first quarter on Sunday, the Viking run game should have its
best collective performance of the season against an Arizona defense
that allows the most points to opposing running backs.
The question is will Cook be active, and if he is active, how
much of the workload will he get? It would seem prudent to limit
his touches if the Vikings are well ahead in the game, but it
would also make sense for Mike Zimmer and the coaching staff to
look to get Cook and the running game going after such a disappointing
start to the season.
Fantasy owners need to monitor Cook’s status up to game
time. If he is a go, and assuming he gets at least 15 carries,
Cook should be considered a viable RB2 on Sunday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Is Andrew Luck back? He looks fine, but
his fantasy production is being driven by high attempt numbers
(53-31-40-62-59). T.Y. Hilton is going to miss another game with
his hamstring injury. With Hilton out, Chester Rogers caught eight
passes for 65 yards last week and was Luck’s clear top target
at receiver. He is a PPR option for as long as Hilton is out.
The biggest beneficiary of all the injuries to the Colts has been
Eric Ebron. Without Jack Doyle and Hilton, Ebron has commanded
double digit targets each of the last three games. He saw a whopping
15 targets last week and scored his second and third touchdowns
in the last two games. Given the state of the TE position, Ebron
is a locked in TE1 as long as he is healthy. He’s missed
two practices this week so check his status on Sunday.
The Jets are tied for the fifth most interceptions with seven
and allow 267 passing yards against per game. They allowed Case
Keenum to throw for 377 yards last week, but a lot of that was
in garbage time as the Jets dominated. The Jets are not going
to dominate the Colts as easily, but this is still an offense
that runs through its quarterback. The pieces in the Colts passing
attack are not flashy options, but they produce making them fantasy
considerations in Week 6.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Running Game Thoughts: Nyheim Hines is the clear lead back for
the Colts. He played 67% of the snaps last week against Jordan
Wilkins’ 22% making Hines the guy you want…for now.
Marlon Mack is better than both of them and he keeps practicing,
but not playing. If he can get back on the field and stay healthy,
he still has a good shot to take control of this backfield. Hines
has 20 targets over his past two games and the Jets allowed Broncos
backs to catch 11 passes for a total of 94 yards last week, but,
again, much of that was in garbage time. Either way, Hines is
a solid PPR asset. Just be sure to monitor Mack’s status
as his activation would really throw a wrench into things.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Don’t be fooled by Sam Darnold’s
three touchdown effort last week. He still only threw for 198
yards and completed just 10 passes on 22 attempts. I imagine Robby
Anderson was a hot waiver pickup but he’s likely fool’s
gold. Two touchdowns on three receptions on five targets is not
something to chase. Quincy Enunwa’s goose egg is a reminder
of the floor players possess on the Jets, but I still like Enunwa
long term this season.
The Colts have actually been surprisingly good defensively this
year. If you discount what happened when they faced Tom Brady,
they’re allowing 268 passing yards per game. The Colts are
also tied for third in the league with 17 sacks. Darnold has taken
11 sacks on the year and has thrown in an interception in every
game except, surprisingly, Jacksonville. Darnold has thrown for
under 200 yards in four out of five games. This is a low volume
passing attack and team that would prefer to run the ball making
Enunwa the only receiver I’d trust, and it’s tenuous
at best.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Running Game Thoughts: Isaiah Crowell rushed four times for zero
yards against Jacksonville. So, naturally, he followed that up
by rushing 15 times for 219 yards against Denver. Crowell is still
a touchdown dependent RB2 and while he exploded last week, that
will not be the norm. Bilal Powell actually had more carries (20),
but only had a pedestrian 99 yards. It was an anomalous game for
the Jets. The Colts are allowing 4.0 yards per carry and have
allowed five rushing touchdowns on the season so if the Jets get
close, they will try and punch it in on the ground. I don’t
expect significant negative game script here, which is bad news
for Powell. I implore fantasy owners to not overreact to last
week.
Seahawks at Raiders
- (Caron) Line: SEA -2.5 Total: 48.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Russell Wilson’s Week 5 performance
ended up being fine from a fantasy standpoint, but the way he
got there has to be concerning. Wilson threw three touchdown passes
against the Rams, but became the first player in 2018 to do so
while throwing for fewer than 200 yards. With Doug Baldwin still
not at full capacity, the Seahawks passing game just does not
have any trustworthy weapons. Tyler Lockett is probably the safest
option, but even he has only seen 11 targets come his way over
the past two weeks and he hasn’t been over seven targets
in any one game so far this season. Baldwin saw just one target
in Week 5 and simply can’t be in fantasy lineups until we
see more. Receiver David Moore did score a pair of touchdowns
in last week’s game but he saw just four total targets on
the day and it’s likely that his performance was just an
outlier in an otherwise fantasy-irrelevant season.
Even against an Oakland secondary that has given up multiple touchdowns
to opposing quarterbacks in four of their five contests so far
this season, Wilson and the Seahawks passing game is just not
one to be excited about. Wilson is usually able to add some value
with his legs, but that hasn’t been there either this season.
The honest truth is that Wilson just isn’t the player we’ve
seen in years past and there are a good number of streaming options
who are probably a better play than he is this week.
OAK FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
OAK FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
OAK FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Running Game Thoughts: If you’re looking for some hope in
this Seattle offense, it might come in the form of running back
Chris Carson who, albeit not spectacular in results, has seen
the ball quite a bit when he’s been healthy. Carson has
now seen 51 total carries in the past two games he played in and
is clearly established as the team’s primary ball carrier.
There is still room for backup Mike Davis to see some touches,
as he did a week ago when he got 12 carries, but that was also
in a game where Carson was coming back from an injury. Look for
Carson to again shoulder the bulk of the carries this week against
an Oakland defense that has been weak up the middle at defending
against the run. Carson isn’t a great outside runner, but
he has been effective when asked to grind out the tough yards
up the middle, so this might actually be a good matchup for him.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The ugly 2018 season continued for the
Raiders this past week as they were held to just 10 points on
the road against the Chargers. Quarterback Derek Carr has now
thrown just seven touchdown passes in five games - four of which
came in one contest in Week 4 - and he’s managed to throw
eight interceptions already. Meanwhile, his receiving options
have been wildly inconsistent. We know that Amari Cooper is an
extremely volatile player, but it’s never been this unpredictable.
Cooper already has two games this season where he’s gone
over 115 receiving yards, but he’s failed to reach even
20 receiving yards in any of the other three games. Not only that,
the target numbers have varied wildly as well. He saw 10 and 12
targets respectively in his two big games, but a total of nine
targets in the other three games combined. That type of unpredictability
can net you big wins in daily fantasy tournaments when he hits,
but he’s become almost completely unusable for seasonal
leagues.
Facing a Seattle secondary that has held opposing passing games
to 200 or fewer yards three times already this season, this just
does not look like one of those “boom” games for Cooper.
The only player in this passing game who fantasy owners should
be excited about this week is tight end Jared Cook. Seattle has
been good against opposing tight ends so far this season, but
they haven’t exactly played against many top talents thus
far. Cook himself is an inconsistent player, but he’s at
least seeing relatively consistently high target share numbers
in the Oakland passing game and he plays a position that is completely
depleted, so he’s a TE1 until we see him falter for multiple
weeks in a row.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: Week 5 was the type of game we have to
be worried about for a player like Marshawn Lynch. The Raiders
fell behind early against the Chargers and it led to a very low
usage game for Lynch, who saw just nine carries and two targets
on the day. Meanwhile backup Jalen Richard, known as the team’s
top pass catching back, played 51-percent of the Raiders’
offensive snaps. The Raiders are less likely to be blown out in
this game against a weaker Seattle offense, but there’s
still a realistic possibility that Lynch ends up riding the pine
late in just about any game. That should be a concern, but it’s
probably not enough to bench Lynch in most formats as he’s
been quite good this season aside from that one week slip-up.
Lynch had double-digit standard fantasy point totals in each of
his first four games this season, anchored by touchdowns in three
of those four contests. He’s the unquestioned goal line
back in Oakland and should see plenty of work if and when the
Raiders get back into that area of the field.
Panthers at Redskins
- (Katz) Line: WAS -1.0 Total: 44.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Cam Newton returned from a bye week to
record his third consecutive multi-touchdown game. He tossed scores
to a returning from injury Curtis Samuel and to Christian McCaffrey.
The only fantasy relevant receiver, at least for now, is Devin
Funchess, but he hasn’t been particularly useful. Funchess
has one touchdown on the season has caught four balls or fewer
in three out of four games. More concerning for Funchess is the
potential return of Greg Olsen this week. Funchess averages about
five fewer PPR FPts/G with Olsen in the lineup than without him.
The Redskins had the league’s third best pass defense before
being eviscerated by Drew Brees last week. They managed to force
Brees to throw a pass that hit the ground exactly three times.
With this game being at home, I expect a better effort from the
Redskins defense, but that won’t stop Newton from remaining
a QB1.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Running Game Thoughts: Christian McCaffrey is
one of the select few reliable weekly RB1s. McCaffrey’s
touch counts through four games are: 16, 22, 30, 22. Last week,
he posted his lowest combined yardage total on the season with
93. He also scored his first touchdown. He has an incredibly high
floor and gets a Redskins defense that has allowed five rushing
touchdowns on the season. The Redskins only allow around 40 yards
per game through the air to opposing running backs. They limited
Alvin Kamara to 15 yards on three receptions last week, but it’s
fair to attribute most of that to game script. C-Mac is going
to catch passes and this matchup should not scare fantasy owners
one bit.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Alex Smith was simply dreadful last week.
Against a pathetic Saints defense, he couldn’t manage a
single touchdown pass (although he did rush for a score) and threw
for 275 yards despite negative game script. Smith is just 18th
in air yards per attempt and 28th in true completion percentage.
None of the Redskins receivers have any fantasy value. Jordan
Reed only saw two targets last week, which is baffling considering
Smith attempted 39 passes. Reed remains a TE1 given the state
of the position, but he certainly cannot be considered reliable
in this offense. Fortunately, the Panthers have been one of the
worst teams in the league against the TE, allowing 65 yards per
game to the position. The Panthers are also allowing 281 passing
yards per game, but it’s difficult to trust Smith given
his play this season.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Running Game Thoughts: The Redskins are running out of running
backs. Adrian Peterson took a huge shot to his knee early in last
week’s contest. He played through it, but then dislocated
his shoulder later in the game. He intends to play through that
as well. It remains to be seen whether that is something he is
actually permitted to do and how effective he can be. Last week,
he managed six yards on four carries and 36 yards on two receptions.
If Peterson can’t go, we could see more of Kapri Bibbs because
Chris Thompson won’t be an every down back. Thompson led
the team in catches last week with six and carries with eight
and is still the back you want in this offense. Thompson is also
dealing with an injury himself as his quarterback hung him out
to dry on a two-point conversion attempt in the fourth quarter.
He told reporters after the game that his ribs were “fine,”
but that is famously what his teammate, Derrius Guice, said about
his knee after his tore his ACL. Players cannot be trusted on
their own injuries.
The Panthers have been excellent against pass catching RBs, but
did give up 81 yards through the air to Saquon Barkey last week.
Although, to be fair, 57 of those came on a gadget play. Play
Thompson if he’s healthy and avoid everyone else.
Rams at Broncos
- (Caron) Line: LAR -7.0 Total: 51.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff played his worst game of the
2018 season this past week, throwing just one touchdown while
throwing two interceptions for the first time since Week 5 of
the 2017 season, but it still wasn’t all that bad from a
fantasy standpoint. It’s also worth considering that Goff
lost two of his top three receivers - Brandin Cooks and Cooper
Kupp - to concussions during the contest. With Cooks taking a
horrifying hit to the helmet that knocked him out, many believe
that he’ll be out of the Rams’ Week 6 contest against
the Broncos and while there does seem to be more optimism regarding
Kupp’s availability, fantasy owners need to keep their eyes
open on game day for any news regarding these receivers. Obviously,
any missed time by either or both Kupp and Cooks would seemingly
lead to a bigger target share for Robert Woods who has already
been great this season and consistently plays almost all of the
Rams’ offensive snaps.
In addition to Woods, another player to keep an eye on if either
Kupp or Cooks is out would be wide receiver Josh Reynolds. Reynolds
ended up playing 55 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps
in Week 5 and catching two passes despite not being a part of
the gameplan coming into the game. If given an opportunity, the
6’3” Reynolds presents an interesting cheap option
out wide who should see significant playing time in one of the
league’s best offenses. That alone would make him an interesting
Flex option for those in need against a Denver secondary that
just got done giving up a three touchdown day Jets rookie QB Sam
Darnold in in Week 5. The Rams have consistently built their offense
around utilizing three receivers on just about every play, so
whoever is on the field should have some fantasy relevance.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Running Game Thoughts: With the Broncos coming off of giving
up over 300 rushing yards to the combination of Isaiah Crowell
and Bilal Powell in Week 5, it makes all the sense in the world
that Todd Gurley would again be the top-ranked fantasy running
back for Week 6. Even a simply above-average running back would
be an easy fantasy RB1 against this defense, but when you consider
that it’s Gurley - the 2017 fantasy MVP who’s already
well on his way to doing it again in 2018 - it’s just a
no-brainer. It doesn’t get much easier than this. Play Gurley
with all the confidence in the world. This might be one of the
juiciest matchups that any running back has all season.
Passing
Game Thoughts: It happened in a blowout loss on the road,
but Case Keenum did finally throw another touchdown pass this
past weekend after failing to do so in three straight previous
contests. In fact, Keenum tossed two passing touchdowns - one
to Demaryius Thomas and one to rookie Courtland Sutton - in the
loss. What’s interesting, though, is that Emmanuel Sanders
was by far the most-targeted player in this offense, seeing 14
targets to Thomas and Sutton both seeing six. Where those targets
took place, though, was also something to pay attention to as
Sutton somehow managed to see a whopping five targets in the end
zone. To put that into context, Thomas and Sanders have combined
for just two end targets between the two of them on the entire
season. While that could have just been an attempt to exploit
a matchup that the Denver coaching staff saw, it’s also
something that we need to keep an eye on over these next couple
of weeks. Sutton isn’t a player who we want to be starting
in standard fantasy leagues, but he does have some serious upside
if the Broncos end up using his big frame and ball tracking skills
as a red zone weapon. Thomas and Sanders are both usable fantasy
options, which Sanders being the more trustworthy option given
his target share, but neither is a particularly great play against
a solid Rams secondary.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: A double-digit halftime deficit in Week
5 led to the Broncos utilizing Phillip Lindsay more than they
likely would have otherwise, but a 16-to-9 share differential
in Lindsay’s favor over fellow rookie Royce Freeman is certainly
something we need to pay attention to. If there’s any team
that can put up huge point totals, it’s the Rams offense
and there’s a very real chance that the Broncos fall behind
relatively quickly in this game and end up essentially abandoning
their traditional between-the-tackles running game. On paper,
this looks like another Lindsay game with Freeman more likely
to be a touchdown-or-bust type of fantasy option.
The Rams have only given up two total touchdowns to opposing
running backs so far this season, however, and those came to Marshawn
Lynch and Melvin Gordon. Freeman hasn’t exactly shown that
type of talent and he’s certainly not getting the type of
workload that those players are, so he’s a player who shouldn’t
be in lineups as anything other than a low-end flex play. Lindsay
does have a bit more upside due to the way that the Broncos utilize
him in their offense, but even he is more of a low-end RB2 in
this game that could quickly see the Broncos falling behind.
Jaguars at Cowboys
- (Katz) Line: JAX -3.0 Total: 40.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Keelan Cole, the best wide receiver on
the team, cannot get consistent targeting. He had 10 last week,
but that was after weeks of 3, 9, 8 and 4. Donte Moncrief had
15 targets last week after previous totals of 5, 3, 9, and 5.
Dede Westborok only saw five targets last week after previous
totals of 13, 4, 5, and 6. The problem has been Blake Bortles
uneven play. He completely imploded last week and even though
he threw for 430 yards, he turned the ball over five times. Now
Bortles and company get a Cowboys defense with a shutdown corner
in Byron Jones and projected neutral-positive game script where
the pace of play will be extremely slow. Bortles won’t have
the volume this week and while it is likely that one of his receivers
is valuable, we have no way of knowing which one. The only pass
catcher you should consider is Niles Paul, who is now the presumptive
starting TE with Austin Seferian-Jenkins out with that lingering
core issue. Paul saw nine targets last week, but it is important
to realize that was in a game where Bortles attempted 61 passes.
Regardless, with the way the TE position has been this season,
Paul is on the streaming radar.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Leonard Fournette (hamstring)
is not returning until Week 10, Corey Grant is on IR and Brandon
Wilds has been released. Who would’ve thought that entering
Week 6, T.J. Yeldon would be locked into one of the biggest snap
shares at the position? Yeldon’s direct backup and the guy
that will be seeing snaps when Yeldon needs a break is Jamaal
Charles. Yes, that Jamaal Charles, whom the Jaguars signed a couple
days ago. Yeldon is, at minimum, a volume based RB2. He should
touch the ball 20+ times and could push 30 touches given the lack
of depth behind him and the fact that the Jaguars should never
be in a situation where they have to play catch up.
Dallas is allowing 52.5 receiving yards per game to opposing
running backs and Yeldon has been heavily involved in the passing
game, catching a touchdown last week and seeing 10 targets. You
want Yeldon in your lineups this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: I really just want to say “avoid
all things Cowboys” and walk away. This coaching staff is
such an embarrassment. Everyone is clueless as to how to run an
offense and Jason Garret, as he has for years, actively tries
to lose football games. He succeeded last week when he inexplicably
gave the ball to the other team instead of attempting a 4th and
1 run with one of the best RBs in the NFL – something the
Cowboys convert at a 95% rate. I digress.
Dak Prescott has regressed in his mechanics and has been relegated
to pure checkdown artist. Prescott has attempted just 11.81% of
his throws 15+ yards downfield. Excluding C.J. Beathard, who is
not a real starting QB, that number is worst in the league. It
is impossible for Prescott and the passing attack to do anything
useful when every pass is underneath. Michael Gallup is clearly
the best WR on the team, but he barely plays. Neither Allen Hurns
nor Deonte Thompson are particularly useful. The only player you
might consider is Geoff Swaim and only because TE is a dumpster
fire. Swaim has 16 targets over his last three games. The Jaguars
have a top five passing defense and lead the league in passing
yards allowed at just 191 per game. They have also allowed a league
low three passing touchdowns. Avoid everyone on Dallas.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Ezekiel Elliott is beginning to feel the
effects of the Cowboys team wide incompetence. Elliott had averaged
at least 4.6 yards per carry in every game this season until he
was limited to 2.6 ypc against the Texans last week. Zeke caught
a season high seven passes to salvage his fantasy day as he had
his first game that was both under 100 yards and without a touchdown.
The Jaguars allow 4.0 ypc to opposing rushers and have only allowed
three rushing touchdowns this season, one of which was to a quarterback.
Zeke is going to touch the ball a lot and you are never benching
him, but his ceiling is certainly capped by his anemic offense.
Ravens at Titans
- (Bales) Line: BAL -2.5 Total: 41.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has found more success this
season, but this is going to be a defensive struggle. It’s
a tough matchup, as the Titans are allowing only 210 passing yards
per game. They have also allowed only six passing touchdowns,
while recording four interceptions this season. While Flacco has
flashed upside, this is not a matchup to use him in, as it will
likely be slow paced and low scoring.
The Ravens receivers make interesting options. Michael Crabtree
has been extremely disappointing, but he is averaging 9.2 targets
per game. Willie Snead has also found some success, as he’s
averaging a 4.6 / 50.6 / 0.2 line on 6.6 targets per game. John
Brown has been the best option, though. He’s only averaging
3.8 receptions per game, but he’s also averaging 79.2 yards
and 0.6 touchdowns per game. He leads the team in air yards, and
he’s the only receiver that should truly be considered in
this matchup.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Running Game Thoughts: Tennessee has struggled at times against
the run this, allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game. With that
being said, they have only allowed one rushing touchdown this
season. Alex Collins and Javorius Allen have been splitting carries,
and that will likely continue this week, limiting their overall
upside. Allen has been the better option of the duo, and he has
more ways to score fantasy points on a weekly basis but it’s
never comfortable playing either of these running backs given
their split usage.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Tennessee passing attack has been
virtually non-existent this season. Marcus Mariota dominated the
Eagles two weeks ago, but he has failed to throw for more than
130 yards in any of his other three games. He has also failed
to throw for a touchdown in any of those games. Baltimore has
allowed only 1,077 passing yards and six passing touchdowns through
five games, making Mariota an easy avoid in this matchup.
Corey Davis leads the Titans with a 30.6% target share, but he
has also struggled to produce outside of the game against the
Eagles. Still, Davis is getting targets, and he comes with upside.
Taywan Taylor has recorded five or more targets in each of his
last two games, as well, although he will likely struggle in this
matchup. Outside of Davis for upside, this is a passing attack
to avoid this week.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: To nobody’s surprise, the Titans
running backs have been splitting carries, which has hurt both
of their values. Derrick Henry offers very little in the passing
game, limiting his value, especially in this matchup. He’s
yet to find the endzone and hasn’t scored more than 6 fantasy
points in non-PPR leagues. He’s been a huge bust to this
point in the season. Dion Lewis is the better fantasy option of
these two backs, as he comes with PPR upside. It’s a tough
matchup for him, as Baltimore is allowing only 88.4 rushing yards
per game and has given up the 3rd fewest fantasy points to running
backs. Royce Freeman is the only running back to score a touchdown
against this defense.
Chiefs at Patriots
- (Katz) Line: NE -3.5 Total: 59.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: This is easily the most exciting game
of the season thus far with so much fantasy goodness. Patrick
Mahomes threw 13 touchdowns over his first three games, but has
cooled off a bit with just one in his last two at Denver, which
is not easy, and against Jacksonville, the league’s top
defense. Now, he gets the Patriots in what should be a festival
of points. We all remember Tyreek Hill throwing up the deuces
to open the season in 2017 against the Patriots. Hill hasn’t
scored since Week 2, but he’s averaging a healthy 7.8 targets
per game. This is a nice get right spot against a Patriots defense
that is 29th against opposing teams’ WR1 per footballoutsiders.com.
Given the amount of points that should be scored, the matchup
is also ripe for Sammy Watkins to perform above expectation. The
Patriots are much better covering the WR2, but Mahomes is a magician
and can’t throw every pass to Hill and Travis Kelce. Speaking
of Kelce, he’s the best TE in fantasy. He has surpassed
the guy on the other side of the field. Since his Week 1 debacle,
Kelce has 100 yards or a touchdown in every game. Get all of your
Chiefs in fantasy lineups.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Running Game Thoughts: Kareem Hunt has been an RB1 this season,
but not necessarily in the way we’d expect. Hunt is barely
a factor in the passing game as he hasn’t really been needed
in that area. Mahomes’ eyes are always downfield and he
rarely has to check it down which has resulted in just nine targets
for Hunt through five games. Hunt has scored in each of his last
four games and given that I expect at minimum four touchdowns
from the Chiefs this week, Hunt is a decent bet to extend that
streak to five. The Patriots are allowing 4.4 yards per carry,
but have only allowed one rushing touchdown this season. Hunt
is locked into lineups, but he’s going to need that touchdown
to reach RB1 status again.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Never count out Tom Brady. Even after
the back-to-back losses at Jacksonville and Detroit, I refused
to say Brady is done. I learned my lesson after the infamous Chiefs
game in 2014. But, Brady is definitely not the same Brady we’ve
come to expect. He’s already thrown six interceptions on
the season with a pick in all but one game this year. The good
news is Julian Edelman looked fine last week and played 70% of
the snaps. That should increase this week and I expect double
digit targets for Brady’s favorite weapon.
Rob Gronkowski has been lackluster as of late. He’s gone
four straight games without a touchdown. This is a great blow
up spot against a Chiefs team that still allows a league worst
343 yards passing per game. Given the explosiveness of the Chiefs
offense, Brady may attempt 50+ passes. The Chiefs are allowing
86.3 receiving yards per game to opposing TEs. It’s going
to be the Gronk and Edelman show through the air. Josh Gordon
is an every week WR3 because of his touchdown upside, but he’s
still not being used enough to trust. Chris Hogan belongs on the
waiver wire.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: Sony Michel has officially taken over as
the primary rusher for the Patriots. Michel has a rushing score
in each of his last two games and has toted the rock 43 times
for 210 yards in that span. Despite his pass catching ability,
he contributes nothing in that department. That is reserved for
James White, who is a legitimate RB1 in PPR leagues. Last week,
White didn’t record a single rushing yard on his two carries,
but still managed RB1 numbers by catching 10 balls for 77 yards
and a score. White has a touchdown in four out of five games this
season. The Chiefs are bottom of the league in defending opposing
RBs through the air, allowing 90.1 yards per game making White
a very strong play this week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The 49ers have been decimated by injuries
including at the quarterback position with Jimmy Garappolo out
for the year with a torn ACL. In steps C.J. Beathard who’s
been more than respectable in the stat sheet (289-2-2 & 349-2-2)
in his two starts but looks to be out of sync with his receivers
and takes too many sacks. It doesn’t help that the 49ers
receiving corps is beat up with Marquise Goodwin (hamstring/quad),
Pierre Garcon (shoulder) and Trent Taylor (back) all nursing injuries.
It appears Goodwin will be back for this game but it would be
ideal to let him make it through a game unscathed before putting
him in your lineup. The man who should be in your lineup is tight
end George Kittle who’s posted at least 70 receiving yards
in each of his last three games with target totals of 7-8-7.
The Packers rank 5th in sacks (16) and should be a fine D/ST
option this week against Beathard. If the game goes to form, San
Francisco will be playing catchup most of the game leading to
good game script for the Packers-D and potentially for Beathard
in garbage time, but I’d take my QB chances elsewhere. Green
Bay got roasted by Kirk Cousins in Week 5 (425-4-1) but held Mitchell
Trubisky, Alex Smith, Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford in check.
Granted, not exactly a murderer’s row of quarterbacks but
it’s difficult to imagine Beathard posting a Cousins-like
performance at Lambeau.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: After spraining his ankle last week, it
appears Matt Breida will sit in Week 6. He missed practice Thursday
but since the 469ers don’t play until Monday night, he might
not be ruled out until after the Sunday games. Fantasy owners
should assume Breida will miss have plan B in place. If he does
miss, Alfred Morris will get the start and would be a TD-dependent
flex option with Raheem Mostert filling a change of pace role
but not fantasy worthy. Fullback/H-Back Kyle Juszczyk would be
an interesting play in PPR leagues if you’re desperate as
Beatherd loves to check down to running backs. The Packers have
allowed one 100-yard rusher (Adrian Peterson) but otherwise represent
a neutral matchup against the run.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with a
gimpy knee since Week 1 but is still hovering around low-end QB1
territory. Another couple games like last week (442-3-0) and he’ll
find himself near the top of the QB rankings. The biggest issue
for this passing attack is the banged up receiver corps. Randall
Cobb (hamstring) got in a limited practice Thursday as did Geronimo
Allison (concussion). The Packers routinely practice on Saturday’s
even on normal week’s so we’ll have to wait until
then before we know who will be active out of this group. Marquez
Valdes-Scantling who filled in nicely last week (7-68-1) would
become a non-fantasy factor if Cobb and Allison return.
The 49ers are beatable through the air but in their defense they
have faced four decent passing attacks to start the season (MIN,
DET, KC, LAC). Davante Adams remains a solid WR1 play and has
recorded double digit targets in three out of five games this
season. He won’t face Richard Sherman the majority of this
game and even if he did, Rodgers has proven he will target his
top receiver regardless of matchup. Jimmy Graham has 1 touchdown
catch but is currently the fantasy TE8 which shows you just how
bad the position is this season. The 49ers have given up the 8th
most fantasy points to the tight end position.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Running Game Thoughts: Much to the dismay of fantasy owners,
the Packers are using a three-headed RBBC with Aaron Jones, Jamaal
Williams and Ty Montgomery each receiving roughly 7-12 touches
per game. This is exactly what Mike McCarthy hinted at during
the pre-season so at least he’s sticking to his word. It’s
plain to see the Jones has more spark in his step than the other
two, but until the coaches decided to starting increasing his
workload, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect anything more
than Flex value from this position, regardless of the name on
the back of the jersey. In favor of the Packers’ RBs this
week is Green Bay being a 9.5 point favorite which could lead
to a run to win the game scenario in the fourth quarter. The 49ers
have given up the 10th most fantasy points to running backs including
above average receiving days to Dalvin Cook (6-55), Theo Riddick
(9-47), Melvin Gordon (7-55-1).