When in doubt, attack the Tampa Bay secondary. The Bucs have been
incredibly stout against opposing RBs this year (11.8 FPts/G, #1
overall) but the exact opposite against opposing WRs (30.9, #32
overall). I don’t know how rare it is to have the league’s #2 run
defense (76.3 YPG) and its second worst pass defense (281.8), but
this asymmetry makes it pretty easy for opposing coaches, even the
denser ones, to draft up a game plan. Frank Reich is no dummy and
will look to attack this obvious weakness at Lucas Oil Stadium Sunday,
though he may not have his entire arsenal of weapons available.
T.Y. Hilton is officially questionable and that could open the door
for Pascal to lead the Colts’ WR corps again. If he does, last week’s
10-target, 109-yard performance has to be encouraging. Start him
Sunday.
Don’t look now but Parker, ever so quietly, has snuck into
the Top 15 at the WR spot. It was fair to ask after four lackluster
seasons whether the Louisville product would ever realize his
full potential, but he’s doing so right before our eyes
now and in this, Miami’s worst season in a decade. In the
surprise Week 13 win over Philly, Parker turned 10 targets into
seven receptions, 159 yards, two scores, and 27.9 fantasy points.
It seems he’s developed some chemistry with Fitzmagic and
now the two square off against one of Fitzy’s former teams.
The Jets, like Tampa, are struggling to contain opposing wideouts
(24.8 FPts/G) and are coming off a deflating loss to the formerly
winless Bengals. I like the fight Brian Flores’ charges
show and I like Miami’s chances of stealing a win at the
Meadowlands. Start Parker.
I panned Jeffery two weeks ago in this space, only to have him
sit the game out entirely and make the whole conversation about
how bad the Philly wideouts have been this year moot. It’s
still a fact (they’re the third least productive WR unit),
but things are looking up after Week 13. Jeffery returned to the
lineup last Sunday and garnered a staggering 16 targets in the loss
to Miami, his most ever as an Eagle. He converted those into nine
receptions, 137 yards, and a score, almost keeping pace with the
aforementioned Parker. Miami’s a plus matchup for any receiver,
of course, but there are a couple better ones: Tampa and the other
New York team Jeffery squares off against next Monday night. WR1s
have really hurt the Giants this season and I don’t think
Philly’s version will be any different. Start him.
Time for a little reverse psychology, I think. Williams has been
in and out of my lineups all year, but as we kick off Week 14,
he’s still waiting to catch his very first touchdown pass
of the 2019 season. It seems almost impossible that a guy who
scored 10 times in 2018 hasn’t managed to score even once
this season, despite a healthy 11 red zone targets (two receptions),
but he’s got just four weeks left to get off the schneid
and it would be foolhardy to expect that when championship trophies
are at stake. I won’t be giving Williams any run this week
or next because he’s DEFINITELY NOT GOING TO SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
THIS SEASON. (There, that should do it.) All joking aside, Williams’
struggles are emblematic of a tough year for the Bolts. He’ll
probably score eventually, but counting on it is foolhardy.
The targets keep coming, but McLaurin’s production keeps
plummeting. Washington’s rookie sensation has been much
less sensational in the season’s second half and is now
averaging a shade under four FPts/G in his last six. This after
starting the year averaging 14.1 in his first five. Dwayne Haskins’
promotion to QB1 hasn’t helped (still not ready despite
successive wins) but neither has the return of Derrius Guice,
how has energized a Washington rushing attack and given interim
coach Bill Callahan, who always wanted to lean on a power running
game, an excuse to do precisely that. A trip to Lambeau probably
isn’t the cure for what ails McLaurin right now and neither
is an expected matchup with Jaire Alexander, Green Bay’s
best corner. You’re probably already doing this, but just
in case, sit McLaurin down. Though brighter days are ahead, Sunday
isn’t one of them.
The Bears hadn’t allowed a single WR to score 20 points
on them this season until Kenny Golladay inexplicably did it on
Thanksgiving Day, despite playing with a brand new quarterback.
Most of Golladay’s production came on a single play, David
Blough’s 75-yard TD strike, and though Gallup’s very
capable of explosive plays too, I don’t think he’s
likely to duplicate that feat Thursday night. The Bears don’t
typically give up big passing plays, for one thing—they
allow just 6.6 yards/pass attempt, fourth best overall—and
Thursday’s aren’t necessarily known for explosive
offense, for another. I’ll be counting on Dak Prescott to
win me a fantasy chip, but I’m not crazy about his Week
14 matchup and definitely not crazy about his WR2 in that matchup.
Stick with Amari Cooper and avoid the mercurial Gallup. It’s
too risky in a game you simply must have.
Good luck, folks!
