Calvin Ridley's breakout game came in Week
3 against his opponent in Week 12... the Saints..
Grab a Helmet
Tre’Quan
Smith v. ATL (Thu): It almost seems, in retrospect, the
Saints used their pursuit of free agents Dez Bryant and then Brandon
Marshall as a smokescreen while they secretly groomed Smith to be
a permanent WR2 option in advance of the Week 11 showdown with the
Eagles. Seems like a pretty elaborate ruse, agreed, but I wouldn’t
necessarily put it past Sean Payton, who also rubbed it in Philly’s
faces with a late 4th & 7 TD strike to Alvin Kamara. Can’t
wait for the rematch in Philly someday! (Coaches have L-O-N-G memories.)
Smith is definitely worth a play after his explosive Week 11 performance
(10 receptions, 157 yards, and a score) and especially against a
Falcons defense yielding 27 points/game to the WR position, fifth
most overall. Don’t forget the last nine games in this NFC
South rivalry have featured an average of 56 points per. Start Tre’Quan.
Calvin
Ridley @ NO (Thu): Ridley’s rookie season has been a
decidedly up-and-down affair with some really high highs (33.5 points
in his third professional game) and some pretty depressing lows
(4.1 FPts/ in five of his last six contests). The good news if you’re
a glass-half-full type of GM? That 33.5 came at the expense of the
rookie’s Thanksgiving opponent, the Saints. New Orleans has clearly
made pass defense strides since, as evidence by that aforementioned
beatdown of the defending champs last Sunday in the Big Easy, but
are still giving up 31.8 FPts/G to opposing pass catchers. That’s
the very MOST in the league and a glaring Achilles’ heel for what
looks like a team very much in the Super Bowl contender conversation.
Ridley’s definitely risky but one with some serious upside this
week. Oh, and I’d still take that New Orleans team vs. all comers
next February.
Josh
Gordon @ NYJ: That includes the Patriots who, for the
first time in a while, don’t seem as indomitable as they once did.
Part of that is recency bias, for sure, since the last time we saw
them, they were getting bombed in Nashville. There’s also the fact
they’re scoring “only” 28 PPG, however, a slight dip from 2017’s
output (28.6). This is significant since scoring is way up (see
last Monday night) and we’re used to New England being an NFL pacesetter.
I wouldn’t bet against Coach Belichick and, if I had to guess, he
and Josh McDaniels spent a couple weeks figuring out how to get
Other Josh more run. Gordon has tallied 22 targets his last two
outings but has only turned them into 9 receptions. Expect an uptick
in efficiency against a lousy Jets D victimized by Matt Barkley
and the Bills in Week 12.
Grab Some Wood
John
Brown v. OAK: Joe Flacco’s hip injury gave Baltimore’s
shot callers pretty good cover if they were hoping to roll Lamar
Jackson out for his first extended action at some point in the
season’s second half. Jackson was compelling in his first NFL
start, if highly unorthodox, and could conceivably save John Harbaugh’s
job. It’s that “highly unorthodox” part that worries me if you
own John Brown or any of the other Ravens receivers. Jackson threw
just 19 passes in his quarterbacking debut and precisely ONE of
them to his most dangerous receiver. Of Week 11 starters who played
an entire game, only Blake Bortles and Eli Manning threw fewer.
Harbaugh et al could certainly have something different up their
sleeves on Sunday, but don’t bet on it. Jackson, Gus Edwards,
and Alex Collins will likely overwhelm an undermanned Raiders
defense, meaning another quiet day is in Brown’s future.
Mike
Williams v. ARI: I’ve got a soft spot for uber-talented
sleepers, especially when they play wide receiver (it’s a passing
league!). My league mates consider this stubborn, borderline dogmatic,
behavior and I can’t disagree, especially since Williams, like
others I pinned high hopes on in 2018, haven’t really panned out
this season. The former Clemson star has made some tantalizing
plays so far, but his relatively pedestrian bottom line—he’s the
WR35 in standard leagues—is almost completely TD-dependent. You
know how I know this? He’s only been targeted 35 times, tied for
77th overall. That’s math we can’t ignore and explains why he’s
only WR55 in PPR leagues. I sat him down when he scored 20+ back
in Week 3 and didn’t beat myself up too much over it. Even with
more at stake this coming Sunday, I won’t hesitate at all to bench
the rarely involved Williams.
Demaryius
Thomas v. TEN (Mon): Remember how excited folks were
after the flurry of trade deadline deals that put some old faces
in new places (Thomas, Golden Tate, and Carlos Hyde)? Several
weeks later, it appears those deals have worked out way better
for the faces left behind in old places (Courtland Sutton, Kenny
Golladay, and Nick Chubb). Thomas never seemed like a plug-and-play
replacement for the speed merchant Will Fuller, but it’s
easy to see why a marriage with Deshaun Watson and playing opposite
DeAndre Hopkins promised more than what’s been delivered
thus far (four targets in two games and zero points in Week 11).
Moreover, the outlook could certainly improve as Thomas and his
new battery mate gain confidence in one another. For now, though,
it’s too dangerous to trust this budding relationship with
playoff slots at stake. Stick with Hopkins and rook Keke Coutee
on Monday night.
