Nobody needs to be told
starting Aaron Rodgers, Arian Foster, or Calvin Johnson is a good
idea. Duh, right? You can’t have studs at every position,
though, unless you’re in the shallowest of leagues. This
is where the Shot Caller comes in. Need help deciding which bargain
basement QB to use and which to ignore on Rodgers’ bye week?
Let’s talk. Looking for solutions at running back because
Foster is a game-time decision? Look no further. Need to know
which of your unproven targets to start and which to sit since
you ignored Megatron and went RB-QB-Gronkowski in your first three
rounds? I’m your huckleberry. Past results may not guarantee
future success, but I believe ignoring them entirely can ruin
your Sundays in a hurry. Read on for a little history and, hopefully,
a little sage advice.
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s default scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
Grab a Helmet
Dalton's diggin' the Eagles and their slumping
pass defense.
Andy
Dalton @ PHI: I’m guessing the Red Rifle has been a very pleasant
surprise for fantasy GMs this season. Despite being selected behind
18 other quarterbacks, on average, in this year’s drafts (10 and
12-team standard scoring leagues), he’s currently ranked 12th in
points per game at the position, a solid improvement over last year’s
final ranking of 16th. Clearly, most expected him to suffer the
dreaded sophomore slump. Because he hasn’t, the Bengals are primed
to make a second consecutive appearance in the playoffs. His fantasy
owners, meanwhile, can dream bigger since he faces Philly on Thursday
night, possessors of the league’s worst pass defense over the last
five weeks (28.1 points yielded per game). A.J. Green v. Nnamdi
Asomugha would normally be must-see TV, but the latter has struggled
mightily and made probably his most memorable play of the season
just last week: a groin-straining, celebratory piggy-back ride of
teammate Jeremy Maclin.
Josh
Freeman @ NO: Asomugha was understandably elated by Maclin’s
last-second game-winner against Freeman’s Buccaneers, a score that
virtually eliminated Tampa from the NFC playoff picture and earned
the Eagles their first win in over two months. Though Freeman’s
offense has certainly played well enough to reach the second season
this year, it has been consistently betrayed by a leaky secondary,
as it was again last Sunday. In fact, only one team has given up
more fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than the Bucs have
in 2012: New Orleans. To put it another way, there’s only one team
you’d like to see Freeman face more than the team he just faced
or the one he faces every day in practice…and he draws them this
Sunday. Only Matt Cassel in Week 3 and Matt Ryan two weeks ago have
been held to fewer than 22 points in a game by the Saints’ lenient
back four, and Freeman’s last effort against them also happened
to be his very best of the year, a 33+-point outing in Week 7.
Brandon
Weeden v. WAS: You’re probably sitting pretty if you own one
of the aforementioned fellows, but unless you’re stacked at running
back and wide receiver, you didn’t make it this far by riding Brandon
Weeden every week. He’s been good in spots, yes, and isn’t necessarily
destined to end up the forgotten QB in the historically good draft
class of 2012. He’s still in the discussion, however, and can’t
be trusted against opponents who bring a reasonably decent pass
defense to the matchup. Luckily, Washington doesn’t. At all. The
Redskins are surrendering a laughable 289 yards/game through 14
weeks and have been especially helpless against some of the league’s
lesser weights (e.g., Sam Bradford, Christian Ponder, etc.). If
Weeden happens to be floating around on your league’s waiver wire
or, better yet, collecting splinters on your bench, you might want
to consider using him in Week 15.
Grab a Clipboard
Jay
Cutler v. GB: Cutler amassed nine three-TD games back in 2009
and 2010, his first two years in the Windy City. Care to guess
how many times he’s accomplished that feat in the almost two full
years since? If you guessed once, you’re right, and probably already
aware Cutler’s march toward fantasy irrelevance is nearing its
final destination. The Bears are marching as well these days…in
precisely the wrong direction. They’ve lost four of five and are
in serious danger of missing the playoffs despite climbing as
high as #3 in ESPN’s power rankings about a month ago. The last
team they probably want to face right now is Green Bay, a team
they routinely struggle to beat and one that happens to be surging
and getting healthy just as Chicago is doing the opposite. By
the way, nobody likes facing the Pack less than Cutler. Mr. Personality’s
thrown 10 picks and just four TDs in his last five games against
them, four of them losses. By the way, Part II: This is the iffiest
I’ve felt about Aaron Rodgers as a fantasy QB in several years.
Tony
Romo v. PIT: Like Kansas City did the week prior, Dallas overcame
a devastating Saturday tragedy involving one of its linebackers,
Jerry Brown, to shine on Sunday afternoon in a game they desperately
needed to win. It can’t be easy to learn of a teammate’s demise
just one day prior to a critical game, but the Cowboys persevered.
Now comes the hard part: following it up with an inspired effort
and another W against Pittsburgh this Sunday. It’s that “inspired
effort” part that is often difficult for teams to reproduce in
the wake of adversity. Even if Romo et al. bring their “A” game,
they’ll be lining up against a Steelers group that is seething,
and probably unsympathetic, after a less-than-inspired effort
of their own last weekend against San Diego. The Curtain has been
especially rough on opposing QBs this season, yielding just 14.5
points/game on the year, tops in the league. Romo’s a tough one
to sit down in the playoffs, but it’s at least worth considering
if you have other viable options. Don’t forget “et al.” may not
include Dez Bryant.
Nick
Foles v. CIN: The Pittsburgh D has been even more suffocating
than usual over its last five games, yielding a mere 13.1 points/game
to opposing field generals. Amazingly, that’s only tied
for the best mark over that stretch as the suddenly resurgent
Bengals, once losers of four straight, have matched it. And save
for a layup against Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel in Week 11, they’ve
done it against the likes of Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Philip
Rivers, and Tony Romo, a quartet capable of posting really big
numbers. It seems the Bengal defenders have gotten downright salty
since we last paid them any mind. Foles is coming off a sterling
performance against Tampa (381 yards and two scores, including
the game-winner), which I might add was correctly predicted by
yours truly in last week’s column (pat, pat). This week,
though, the kid looks like a strong play against candidate. Sit
Foles down on Thursday night.
Running Backs 
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