Quarterbacks Most Likely to Rise in 2026:

Patrick Mahomes, KC: Before you start throwing tomatoes or burnt ends or something at me, consider this: Mahomes is sporting an ADP outside the Top 10 as we head into the heart of draft season (QB12 in standard leagues), a precipitous decline from his earlier, headier days of fantasy superstardom. So if you're inclined to criticize me for passing up the three for a layup here... maybe consider why the collective fantasy community now considers him a borderline QB1/high-end QB2. Need I remind everyone the man is only 30 years old?

OK, so it's likely most fantasy GMs are worried KC's meal ticket will miss some early-season games while he continues to recuperate from last year's ACL injury. I'm not most fantasy GMs and would be happy to grab the game's best signal caller at a discounted rate for 2026. Despite missing three games last year, his most as a full-time NFL starter, Mahomes still managed to average 24.3 FPts/G. That was the exact same per-game average as wunderkind Drake Maye up in New England and just a whisker behind the league's two most productive wingers, Josh Allen (25.0) and Matthew Stafford (24.7). Mahomes did that, by the way, throwing to one of the league's least inspiring WR corps, especially when Rashee Rice wasn't suiting up (he missed the first six games of 2025 due to suspension).

Rice appears to be ready to rock this year so long as he stays out of trouble (not guaranteed). And obviously, this prediction hinges almost entirely on the Chiefs' franchise QB playing in every game (or at least the ones that matter to us, through Week 16). Even with those headwinds to factor in, I think Mahomes starts Week 1 and proves once again why he's the best in the business.

Lamar Jackson, BAL: With apologies to Lamar Jackson, of course, who could legitimately stake a claim to being the best fantasy man in the business when healthy. He wasn't and... wasn't last year, which mostly explains why we're talking about him in this column, though not totally. In the 13 games he did play, Baltimore's offensive dynamo averaged only 19.9 FPts/G, which wouldn't have been enough to earn a Top 10 finish even had he played a full slate. It was also three FPts/G lower than he'd EVER tallied as the Ravens' starter. Should we be more worried about him?

You may be, but my answer is decisively no. Jackson's 2025 decline seems more like an exception to his rule of sustained greatness over the past eight years. He was never really healthy last season, which showed up very obviously in his rushing stats (a career-worst 349 yards and only two TDs). He also received the worst pass protection he ever has (37.1% pressure rate, second-worst in the league). It all added up to a whole lotta meh for Jackson and his Ravens. Enter new head man Jesse Minter and three new OL starters to shore things up.

Minter also brings Declan Doyle with him, an offensive coordinator mentored by Sean Payton and Ben Johnson. Those aren't bad influences to have and I, for one, am fascinated to see what the first-time playcaller can do with the game's most unicorn-like field general. Here's my hunch: It'll be enough to get Jackson back into the quarterbacking penthouse this coming year, especially if either (or both) rookie WRs, Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt, elevate an otherwise bland wide receiver room. Lane is reportedly already doing that, and Sarratt's been doubted before. Ask me how I know this (woe, Ducks!).

Kyler Murray, MIN: Forecasting Mahomes and Jackson, two of the game's quarterbacking luminaries, to reclaim Top 10 status in 2026 isn't exactly provocative. So let's get a bit nuts with our third Top 10 Riser, shall we?

After spending seven mostly fruitless years out in the desert, Kyler Murray has moved on to Minneapolis, where he's already won the starting job over J.J. McCarthy. Reportedly, it wasn't a very close competition, as Murray's processing speed and precision—not to mention 77 more career starts—gained him clear separation from the disappointing and slow-developing third-year man out of Michigan. Now comes the hard part: proving he's still got some juice despite a 38-48-1 career record.

One thing we're going to find out real quick is whether the Cardinals were holding back Murray or Murray was holding back the Cardinals. My guess is it was a little bit of both, though it should be pointed out that the former Heisman winner authored two of Arizona's three victories despite playing in only five games. In fact, the Cards were +7 in those five Murray starts, narrowly losing to San Francisco and Seattle by a combined four points and... well, a brutal Tennessee team in the most brutal way possible.

All of that Cardinals ick is behind him now, and so are the excuses. If he can't succeed under Kevin O'Connell, one of the league's preeminent quarterback whisperers (see Darnold, Sam), this is probably the last time we'll be talking about him as a prospective Top 10 option.

Don't forget, though, that Murray's already achieved the feat thrice in seven years and only missed it by a nose a fourth time (2021, when he averaged 25.5 FPts/G but missed three games). He's got better support now than he ever did, so don't sleep on him.

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