Old age is partially to blame, sure, but the real reason I have to check is because I've been writing essentially the same article this whole danged time. Think of it as one big longitudinal study on how the NFL's best and brightest persist from year to year.

Spoiler alert: They mostly don't.

2025 was no different, and 2026 won't be either. The only interesting -- and somewhat challenging -- part each summer is trying to pinpoint which of the 30 Top 10 performers (QBs, RBs, and WRs), specifically, won't still be in the discussion a year from now.

Let's get after it.

Who Missed the Cut in 2025 (8/10): J. Jefferson, B. Thomas Jr., T. McLaurin, D. London, M. Evans, M. Nabers, C. Lamb, & L. McConkey

Justin Jefferson's freefall from WR2 to WR29 last year was the most surprising of all, especially as he was considered no worse than a Top 2 option going into the season and didn't miss a game. Alas, he did miss his QB, Sam Darnold, who moved on to bigger and better things in Seattle, leaving the Vikes with an absolute mess at the position. No such problem in Jacksonville, where Trevor Lawrence put up career-high numbers. That didn't translate into great digits for Brian Thomas Jr., however (6.5 FPts/G vs. 11.4 the year prior), which I DID warn you was possible in last summer's Dropouts series. It's fair to wonder if the former LSU star will ever fulfill his massive athletic potential in the bigs.

Terry McLaurin was another 2024 star I cautioned could disappoint in 2025, and that's exactly what he did, though in his defense, he did miss seven games after four straight years of injury-free play. Even extrapolating his abbreviated totals out to a 17-game campaign, though, it's unlikely Scary Terry would have been much better than a back-end WR2. More like Slightly Unnerving Terry, I guess?

Drake London, on the other hand, was tracking toward his best year as a pro (11.2 FPts/G) down in Hotlanta, but was ultimately done in by a left knee sprain. If the Falcons can solve the QB position this season (gigantic "if"), the sky's the limit for this former Man of Troy.

For the first time since he debuted in 2014, Mike Evans will wear a different uniform this season. Here's hoping for him, the Niners, and anyone who drafts him that he's better than he was in 2025, when he posted career lows across the board (games played, targets, receptions, fantasy points, you name it).

The Giants, meanwhile, can only hope Malik Nabers achieves the same level of sustained success Evans has enjoyed in his now 12-year career. To do so, he'll probably need to stay on the field (19 games played out of a possible 34 so far). He's already questionable for Week 1 as he recovers from last year's brutal knee injury.

CeeDee Lamb missed four games in 2025, which was enough to seal his Top 10 dropout fate. What happened while he was out, though, may have been more damaging to his longer-term fantasy value. From Week 3 to Week 6, Lamb's new Dallas running mate, George Pickens, averaged 18.2 FPts/G, almost three more per game than Puka Nacua, last year's WR1 overall, averaged all season. That Cowboys passing attack could be lit in 2026.

The Chargers' passing attack? We'll see. Justin Herbert spent most of 2025 running for his life, which is the primary reason Ladd McConkey was the final Top 10 dropout of the season. McConkey was targeted only six fewer times in his sophomore season, but tallied nearly 350 fewer yards than he did a year prior. It was enough to drop him from WR10 to WR31.

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

Puka Nacua, LAR: This has nothing to do with Puka's production, his overall skill set, or his fit in a dynamite offense. Dude is a straight-up baller playing for the league's best team, and it still blows my mind, many years later, that he started his college career up in Seattle. Had he stuck around, Nacua would have played with FOUR other pass-grabbing Huskies destined for the NFL (Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Cade Otton). As a former Duck, I'll just say... I'm glad that alternate reality never materialized.

Six years later, Nacua is at the top of the wide receiver heap and could add Super Bowl champion to his list of accomplishments before long. That is to say, he could if he doesn't implode somewhere along the way. The last nine-ish months of his life have been incredibly tumultuous, after all, and it's fair to wonder whether someone who demonstrates such immaturity so routinely can really grow up fast enough to fulfill his immense promise.

It's also fair to wonder whether the Rams are willing to invest in many more years of the Puka experience if it... includes all the things that have so far defined the Puka experience (antisemitic gestures, abuse allegations, formal rehabilitation). So far, the answer has been no.

The other thing that makes me nervous about Puka in 2026 is the thing that, frankly, makes him exceptional: his maniacal, heat-seeking-missile playing style. He's an elite run-blocker, a top-notch ball hawk, and a really tough tackle in space. He's also a shoulder separation or concussion away from disappearing from the Top 10. I'll probably eat these words, but the NFL's best wideout carries more red flags than most positional alpha dogs do. Unless you're getting him cheaper than you should, be very leery come draft day.

Chris Olave, NO: Anyone out there have Olave as a Top 10 WR on their 2025 bingo card? Yeah, me neither. The former Buckeye seriously considered retirement after suffering a season-ending concussion in 2024, his fourth in just three pro seasons. Nobody could have blamed him, moreover, especially considering he'd be putting it all on the line -- his career, his health -- for a rebuilding Saints offense sporting possibly the league's worst QB room. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to what looked like a disastrous 2025 campaign.

Fast-forward a year, and Olave is fresh off a stellar WR6 performance and even fresher off inking a four-year, $132M extension ($90M guaranteed) to his rookie contract. Additionally, New Orleans is way ahead of its rebuilding curve, and Vegas even has their season win total set at 7.5 wins.

OK, so maybe they aren't serious playoff contenders this year; however, the excitement is palpable in the Big Easy, and most of that has to do with the team's surprisingly productive battery of Tyler Shough and Olave. The duo ranked as QB5 and WR7, respectively, over the last five weeks of the season, pretty heady stuff for a team that started the year with a different signal caller under center and a star wideout wondering if 2025 might be his last.

2026 likely won't be either, but I DO worry about how even one more headshot could change the calculus for the Saints' best pass shagger. A multi-week absence would probably be the best-case scenario and would almost certainly doom his hopes of repeating as a Top 10 performer. There's also the possibility Shough's new target, eighth overall pick Jordyn Tyson, brings much-needed balance / diversification to the team's WR corps. There's a lot of risk here, so be careful.

Jameson Williams, DET: There wasn't a more feast-or-famine option at the position than Detroit's Williams last year. Despite playing a full 17-game slate for the first time in his career, the Bama product needed only half that many games to score most of his 2025 points, averaging 15.7 FPts/G when he exceeded double figures and a paltry 3.3 when he didn't (including two goose eggs in Weeks 7 and 12 and a near miss in Week 5).

So, yes, he was a Top 10 performer. He was also one of the more frustrating pass catchers to own on a week-in/week-out basis (ask me how I know this).

I'd love to think Coach Campbell et al. intend to smooth those peaks and valleys for their talented fifth-year man in 2026, but... well, I guess it's just as easy to imagine a scenario where they don't. Williams isn't the reliable chain-mover his more celebrated (and much steadier) teammate, Amon-Ra St. Brown, is. He's not going to suddenly become the focal point of the Lions' passing offense.

He's also not a primary red-zone target for the squad, garnering only eight total targets on the year. That put him behind St. Brown (34), Jahmyr Gibbs (12), and Isaac TeSlaa (10). TeSlaa converted six of those 10 RZ targets into six-pointers, making it seem unlikely Williams will be any more popular near the goal line this coming year.

I love players who can win you a week with one or two big plays, and Williams is certainly that—a big play waiting to happen. He's not the kind of guy I want in my lineup when I only need 8-10 points to lock down a win on a Monday night, though. He's a 50/50 shot there.

Next: Quarterbacks