Spoiler alert: They mostly don't.

2025 was no different, and 2026 won't be either. The only interesting -- and somewhat challenging -- part each summer is trying to pinpoint which of the 30 Top 10 performers (QBs, RBs, and WRs), specifically, won't still be in the discussion a year from now.

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday's Non-PPR league scoring.

Who Missed the Cut in 2025 (3/10): S. Barkley, J. Jacobs, & J. Conner

To say 2025 was an outlier for RB dropouts would be an extreme understatement. Three is the fewest number we've seen in the 15 years I've been authoring this series, and only three other times -- in fact, 2014, 2017, and 2018 -- have at least half of the Top 10 reclaimed their status year over year.

Even more notable is that two of the three who did fall out just barely missed the cut. Josh Jacobs, coming off a stellar 2024 in which he scored 16 total touchdowns, played in two fewer games due to nagging leg injuries but still only slipped (if you can call it that) to RB12 overall, remaining a clear RB1 option in most leagues. Whether he is in 2026 could have a lot to do with looming domestic violence allegations and/or how concerned Coach LaFleur and his staff are about his relatively high usage rate as a pro (seven straight seasons of 250-plus touches).

Saquon Barkley was arguably the most disappointing of the 2024 A-listers who regressed in 2025, but that had more to do with sky-high expectations and the impossibly high bar set by his Offensive Player of the Year campaign. Philly's meal ticket dropped from RB2 overall to RB14 despite playing the same number of games, mostly due to depressed year-over-year efficiency (4.1 YPC vs. 5.8 in 2024). Even more alarming was the lack of explosive performances. After seven 20-plus-point outings in 2024 (and two more during the Eagles' Super Bowl run), Barkley managed only one last year (Week 8 vs. the lowly Giants).

Arizona's James Conner was the lone free-faller of the 2024 Top 10 crop, dropping from RB10 all the way to RB76 owing to a season-ending foot injury. It was effectively career-ending from a fantasy perspective, as the Cards drafted his heir apparent, Jeremiyah Love, third overall in April's draft and also added bruiser Tyler Allgeier via free agency. Conner remained relevant much longer than I thought he would, but he no longer is and can be safely ignored in drafts.

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year

De'Von Achane, MIA: The overwhelming historical evidence, last year notwithstanding, says at least one -- and probably more -- of the Top 5 backs will struggle to stay in the top tier this coming season. I know this, trust the data after 15 years, and yet still can't identify an obvious slide candidate among that group. Injuries will be the great equalizer/wild card, as they usually are, but I'm not interested in predicting who will get hurt or how long they'll be sidelined.

That brings us to...

Miami's Mr. Everything. He was RB7 in 2025 and has managed to stay remarkably healthy despite a small frame for a bell-cow back. He's missed only one game since his rookie season in 2023 and has accordingly notched consecutive Top 10 campaigns (RB9 in 2024).

Even if he stays upright in 2026, though, there are concerns about the motley crew being built around Achane. The Fish are resetting after the occasionally electric but usually disappointing Mike McDaniel era, which includes taking on a record-setting dead-cap hit of $179 million. This year is about getting right financially, creating roster flexibility, and seeing what they have in Malik Willis after some tantalizing 2025 performances with the Pack. In other words, it's not about success now but rather about building a foundation for something down the road.

That isn't to say Miami's meal ticket can't put up his usual stellar numbers. He figures to see heavy usage once again and could set a personal best for touches or, at the very least, receptions (go look at that WR room if you're skeptical). I'm concerned that being the weekly focus of opposing defensive coordinators will take its toll, though, and there's a good chance Willis will steal a fair number of rushing TDs from his new backfield mate. Achane is super risky in 2026.

Kyren Williams, LAR: If Miami is playing for the future, the Rams are living fully in the now. After consummating two of the splashiest offseason trades (Trent McDuffie from KC and then Myles Garrett from Cleveland) and sending away a boatload of future draft picks, it's 2026 or bust in Hollywood Park.

I've gotta say I love it. While NBA GMs seemingly compete to see how noncompetitive they can be and how far down the road they can kick their championship windows (while expecting us fans to pay exorbitant ticket prices in the meantime), the LA brass is doing what every franchise, in every sport, should be incentivized to do: win at all costs and pay the fiddler later.

OK, I'm off my soapbox (and not at all bitter about the Trail Blazers' new clown-car ownership group).

If the Rams are as successful as we expect them to be this year, Williams will be a huge part of it. He's the backbone of a balanced attack, having notched more than 3,000 yards from scrimmage and 29 touchdowns over the past two seasons. This despite the fact that his touches dipped last year, from 350 to 295.

That drop-off is actually what concerns me, however, and it has less to do with Williams than the guy eating into his workload, Blake Corum. The latter's usage jumped from 65 touches as a rookie in 2024 to 181 last year, nearly a threefold increase. Somehow, Corum became even more efficient with the additional work (and more efficient than Williams on the ground: 5.1 YPC vs. 4.8, along with a better TD rate). It's hard to envision a world in which the Williams-Corum split doesn't become more even in 2026. I'd rather spend less on Corum late than more on Williams early.

Travis Etienne, NO: Etienne is the only Top 10 back to switch teams this offseason and one of only two in the Top 20 to do so (Rico Dowdle). That's not necessarily enough on its own to forecast regression in 2026, but it's a big part of the story. It might not have been had the Saints, as many predicted, moved on from longtime star Alvin Kamara (or vice versa). Instead, Kamara elected to restructure his contract a couple of weeks back and will return to the Crescent City for a 10th season.

(Side note: How is this Alvin Kamara's TENTH season???)

"Restructured" is contract-speak for "took a pay cut," and that's exactly what Kamara did (to the tune of $5.5 million). If you think that means he'll have a reduced role in the offense, you're probably right. How reduced is the real question, though, and unless you're Kellen Moore, you probably don't have the answer.

It's also fair to wonder how the contract situation will impact Kamara's psyche moving forward. Until last year, he was still an elite option at the position, having averaged 14.4 FPts/G for his career (and 14.1 as recently as two years ago). Does the disappointing season, the pay cut, and then a seeming demotion to second string motivate him to reclaim alpha status in the New Orleans backfield? He was allegedly "pissed" by the whole affair, so... negative psychological impact motivating positive on-field performance?

I don't have the answers, but I do know that Kamara in his prime was a LOT better than Travis Etienne (10.7 FPts/G over a four-year career). That's a scientific fact, and one that would scare me if I were expecting Etienne to be the clear RB1 in New Orleans and a repeat Top 10 performer.

Next: Wide Receivers