Old age is partially to blame, sure, but the real reason I have to check is because I've been writing essentially the same article this whole danged time. Think of it as one big longitudinal study on how the NFL's best and brightest persist from year to year.

Spoiler alert: They mostly don't.

2025 was no different, and 2026 won't be either. The only interesting -- and somewhat challenging -- part each summer is trying to pinpoint which of the 30 Top 10 performers (QBs, RBs, and WRs), specifically, won't still be in the discussion a year from now.

Let's get after it.

Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s Non-PPR league scoring.

Who Missed the Cut in 2025 (6/10): L. Jackson, J. Burrow, B. Mayfield, J. Daniels, S. Darnold, & K. Murray

The quarterback position was relatively stable during the first five years I wrote this column (2011 through 2015), averaging four dropouts per season. I say "relatively" because a 40% turnover rate is still alarming for the steadiest of fantasy positions and because... it's gotten quite a lot worse since. Over the past 10 years, roughly 5.4 Top 10 QBs have failed to retain that status year over year, a 35% spike. Last year's carnage of six, which matched 2024's total, certainly didn't reverse that longer-term trend.

Lamar Jackson toppled all the way from QB1 to QB20 last year, breaking a string of three straight Top 10 finishes. Missing four games didn't help, but the Ravens' franchise quarterback also suffered a scary drop in his per-game production, dipping from 26.3 FPts/G in 2024 to 17.9 last year. Even if he'd stayed healthy all season, he still would've failed to crack the Top 10 at that rate.

Joe Burrow wasn't much better on a per-game basis, averaging only 18.1 FPts/G. Even if we exclude his abbreviated Week 2 appearance, when he appeared to succumb to a season-ending toe injury, Joe Sheisty was barely good enough on a per-game basis to merit Top 10 status.

At least Jackson and Burrow had the excuse of missing multiple games. No such luck for Baker Mayfield, who played in all 17 Tampa Bay contests and still managed only 17.4 FPts/G. He missed Mike Evans, for sure, and his second-most productive target was Tez Johnson, a seventh-round flyer from Oregon (GO DUCKS!). Still, 2025 was a dud encore by any measure for the well-traveled Mayfield after his career campaign in 2024.

Speaking of dud campaigns, the Washington faithful had to be discouraged by Jayden Daniels' sophomore slump. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year played in only seven games, averaged four fewer fantasy points when he did play, and somehow completed nearly 9% fewer of his passes -- a concerning regression for a seasoned second-year player (Daniels played five full NCAA seasons).

Sometimes, though, a step back can actually be a massive step forward. Such was the case for Sam Darnold, who parlayed his first Top 10 finish (2024 with Minnesota) into a starting role for the eventual Super Bowl champs. Darnold wasn't great in 2025 (just 16.0 FPts/G, about his career average as a starter), but he didn't need to be.

Maybe Kyler Murray can follow a similar rags-to-riches trajectory in Darnold's old stomping grounds? After an injury-riddled stinker of a 2025 season, the Cardinals finally jettisoned Murray to the Gopher State, where he'll attempt to stay healthy, hold off J.J. McCarthy (shouldn't be too hard), and potentially thrive in Kevin O'Connell's quarterback-friendly offense this season.

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

Trevor Lawrence, JAX: It took five seasons, but the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft finally paid dividends, notching career highs in wins (13), passing TDs (29), rushing yards (359), and rushing TDs (9). Though it didn't lead to the kind of postseason success Jacksonville fans are starving for, 2025 did seem like a step in the right direction, especially considering Lawrence and company hung right with Josh Allen and the Bills in a Wild Card loss. Can they take another step toward their first Super Bowl appearance in 2026?

That's a "no" for me, dog, and Vegas oddsmakers agree, setting Jacksonville's season win total at 8.5 (Draftkings). Turnover regression is real -- the Jags were +13 last year despite Lawrence's 12 interceptions, good for third overall -- and the team made no splashy additions in free agency. On top of that, their 2026 draft was universally panned as one of the league's worst, featuring multiple reaches in the early rounds, including a tight end I'd never heard of, Nate Boerkircher (and I watch an ungodly amount of CFB). The 2025 draft class wasn't much better, frankly, when the Jags' brass traded up to select an overrated "unicorn" (Travis Hunter) who will probably never contribute much as an NFL pass catcher.

That's probably OK in the near term for Lawrence, since this write-up is about him. He's got Brian Thomas Jr. (up and down but talented), Jakobi Meyers (steadier, if less talented), and Parker Washington (the ideal modern-day slot receiver with a RB frame) to throw to. Slinging it isn't what worries me about Lawrence this season, however. Though an above-average threat with his legs, I can't envision a scenario in which he matches last year's nine rushing TDs, an extreme statistical outlier for him. He's the most obvious dropout candidate among last year's Top 5.

Caleb Williams, CHI: The top pick in the 2024 draft was nothing short of spectacular as a sophomore, engineering six fourth-quarter comebacks in the regular season and a seventh that snatched the souls -- and playoff lives -- of his hated rivals to the north (I'm not bitter). Along the way, he also authored several of the most jaw-dropping plays NFL fans have seen this millennium, including a miraculous fourth-down equalizer against the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round a week later. Though it wasn't enough to secure an eighth comeback, Williams proved he can make the routine look sensational and vice versa... routinely.

I guess that's what has me feeling a little skeptical heading into 2026, however. Williams rarely makes the routine look routine, which is probably why his team lived on the edge so often in the first place. His 27-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio was stellar, but try these other rankings on for size: 1) QB17 in QBR; 2) QB22 in passer rating; 3) QB26 in passing success rate; and 4) QB32 in completion percentage. That last one -- completion percentage -- underpins the others and is something the former Trojan must fix to reach the quarterbacking pantheon most have already projected for him. Will he?

His college splits suggest he's capable of being more precise, but NFL history is littered with accurate college QBs who became far less accurate -- and more error-prone -- in the bigs, done in by more sophisticated defensive schemes, nastier pass rushes, and tighter throwing lanes. A fellow Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, comes to mind. Williams has already been better than his fellow Pac-12 (RIP) alum, but the fundamentals are worrisome, as is the massive jump in strength of schedule this coming year (No. 1 overall). And yes, I'm probably still a little bitter.

Justin Herbert, LAC: I may be a homer, but I'm still capable of detached objectivity when it's warranted. It probably is in Herbert's case, sad as that is for this fellow Duck to admit. I still think he could suddenly win a Super Bowl or an MVP (or both) before his career wraps up. He's that talented, and QB specimens like him don't come around often.

Nevertheless, he's never won a playoff game, has finished better than QB9 only once in six seasons (QB3 in 2021), and is still playing catch with one of the league's weakest WR rooms (ranked 27th by Pro Football Focus heading into 2026). Did I mention he's coached by a possible lunatic?

OK, that's just one man's observation, and there's no question Jim Harbaugh wins football games. His career winning percentage is .679, good for 10th overall, and he's never suffered a losing season in six years with San Francisco and then the Bolts (after a highly successful, if controversial, stint at his alma mater). What's less certain is whether he's the right guy to get the most out of Herbie. He sure talks like he is, famously calling him a "superhero" and bizarrely stating, "There's not a gene in his body I wouldn't immediately trade for." Say what now?

Adulation notwithstanding, the Chargers' uber-talented gunslinger has thrown for approximately 500 fewer yards and four fewer touchdowns per season under Harbaugh. That stands to reason when you consider he's also thrown about 100 fewer passes per year while playing for the guy who can't stop talking about how amazing he is. Funny way to utilize a quarterback you think so highly of, no? I want this one to come back and bite me, but for now, I need the younger Harbaugh's actions to match his words.

Next: Running Backs