Last week, I examined
the Top 10 quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers from
2011 in hopes of identifying who among them might be primed to disappoint
and fall from the ranks this upcoming season. This week, I’ll
take an educated wag at who, conversely, might be ready to emerge
(or perhaps reemerge) in 2012 to snag the vacated spots. Some of
the names won’t surprise you, I’m sure, but some certainly
might. After all, did anyone peg Victor Cruz for a Top 10 run before
the start of last season? Here goes nothing…..
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy QBs from last season...
Peyton
Manning, DEN: Too obvious, right? Let’s play devil’s advocate
first. He’s 36, past the age most quarterbacks not named Favre or
Elway start to decline. He’s coming off a serious neck injury—and
three surgeries—that scuttled his entire 2011 season. He’s traded
the climate-controlled fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium for some
bona fide grass and the great (if unpredictable) outdoors of Mile
High. He’ll be taking over the reins of an offense that led the
league in rushing attempts last year. Yes, Manning faces some stiff
headwinds as he recommences his Hall of Fame career.
And, no, it won’t matter. We’re talking about Peyton
freakin’ Manning here! You know, the guy who practically invented
the Top 10 list. Since the turn of the century, he’s only
failed to achieve that status once (last year) and has averaged
a #3 overall ranking at the position during that span. He’s
thrown for over 50,000 yards and nearly 400 touchdowns, good for
third on the all-time list in both categories. He’s been the
picture of consistent production under center for nearly 15 years.
Will a change of scenery and a year off really change all that?
The “scenery,” by the way, isn’t as bad as it
might appear. John Fox is still an NFL throwback (think ground and
pound), but he’s also desperate. Manning is his best chance
to keep the job. Additionally, the Broncos aren’t entirely
bereft of passing-game talent. Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas,
two third-year targets, are capable and may, as others have before
them (e.g., Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, etc.), rise from relative
anonymity to fantasy glory with Peyton at the helm. Should they
falter, he can still rely on a couple of buddies from Indy: Jacob
Tamme and Brandon Stokley. Finally, Manning is arguably the least
mobile alpha quarterback since Dan Marino ruled the roost in the
eighties. Thus, the neck injury, it would seem, should only continue
to affect him if it robs him of arm strength or range of motion.
Early indications from Denver are that it hasn’t.
RGIII: Another rookie ready to crack the
top ten?
Robert
Griffin III, WAS: I actually got to see RGIII in person last
September as he kicked off his Heisman campaign against TCU in Waco.
Here’s what I saw: a supremely gifted athlete with a cannon for
an arm, laser-like precision (especially on deep balls), and Michael
Vick-esque speed and slipperiness when plays broke down. Well,
for three quarters, at least. Little Bro, who gets bored when games
get out of hand (it was 47-23 at that point) or don’t feature beer
concessions (Baylor is a Baptist institution), convinced the rest
of us to leave. Whoops. We only missed a furious (though unsuccessful)
TCU rally, 28 more points, and a last-second field goal in ESPN’s
first “Instant Classic” of 2011. On the bright side, Little Bro
earned a hilarious new nickname.
Griffin now takes his game to the NFL, where his tantalizing skill
set already has fantasy owners salivating. It’s probably asking
too much of him to reproduce Cam Newton’s record-setting rookie
numbers of 2011, but he’s already a better passer than Newton
will likely ever be and he’s even more explosive when running
with the ball, if not as devastatingly powerful. Indeed, the only
real knock on RGIII, his somewhat narrow frame, is something he
has basically no control over.
Of course, he also has no control over the situation he’s
landed in. The Redskins upgraded the wide receiver position in the
offseason but still lack depth and quality along the offensive line.
They also can’t seem to figure out who will be shouldering
the load at running back. Worse, they don’t really seem to
care. Who’s coaching this team, anyway, Mike Shanahan? RGIII
faces some challenges, but I believe his overwhelming physical gifts
will be a sight for sore eyes in our nation’s capital and
the reason he threatens to crack the Top 10 in this, his inaugural
professional season.
Carson
Palmer, OAK: Not who you were expecting, right? I could probably
write an entire article about Mr. Vick’s prospects for 2012 (don’t
tempt me) but, suffice it to say, I’m just not convinced he’ll be
the dual-threat he once was. And let’s face it: Take away Mike Vick’s
legs and he starts to resemble, statistically speaking, guys that
aren’t even close to as good as guys like Carson Palmer. The latter
sports a career 86.3 passer rating. Vick’s hovers right around 80.
Palmer has topped the 3500-yard mark four times in his career. Vick?
He hasn’t done it. Palmer’s thrown for more than 20 touchdowns five
times. Vick’s managed the feat only twice. Oh, and the clincher?
Michael Vick, despite missing two complete seasons, has actually
appeared in more career games than the former Heisman winner.
Even setting aside the comparisons with Philly’s triggerman,
Palmer is significantly underrated coming in to 2012. The reasons
for that are varied and probably somewhat justified. He was inconsistent
his last couple of years in Cincy. He hasn’t always been healthy.
He still throws too many picks. He provides nothing in the ground
game. So, he’s not perfect. Got it. He did, however, manage
to tally oodles of yardage in his abbreviated 2011 stint. The 275.3
yards-per-game figure he posted was, believe it or not, the highest
of his career. Not hurting matters is the fact that Oakland possesses
easily the speediest receiving corps in the league. Palmer has always
thrown a nice howitzer, and with guys like Denarius Moore, Darrius
Heyward-Bey, and Jacoby Ford running under his bombs, it wouldn’t
shock me to see the Raiders lead the league in home runs this season.
Somewhere up there, Al Davis is smiling.
Next: Running Backs
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