The purpose of this series is to identify players with similar 2026 fantasy value and examine the process of choosing between them.

Our first installment features two quarterbacks who entered the league one year apart (2020 and 2021). Neither is considered an elite fantasy QB1, but both are widely projected as top-10 options.

Trevor Lawrence arrived in Jacksonville amid enormous expectations but was widely viewed as both a fantasy and real-life disappointment until last season, when his partnership with head coach Liam Coen transformed the Jaguars' offense. Lawrence set career highs in touchdown passes (29), rushing attempts (82) and rushing yards (359) in 2025. While he threw for more passing yards in both 2022 and 2023, his touchdown rate jumped to 5.2% last season -- a significant improvement over his previous career best of 4.3%. Many believe the second year of the Lawrence-Coen partnership could produce an even bigger leap while Lawrence remains firmly in his prime.

Justin Herbert is also entering the prime of his career. Like Lawrence, his fantasy production received a boost in 2025 thanks to career highs in rushing attempts (83) and rushing yards (498). While Jim Harbaugh is known for preferring a physical, run-first offense, the arrival of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator could finally unlock Herbert's full fantasy ceiling.

Both quarterbacks offer intriguing upside. So, which one should be your middle-round starter in 2026? That's where the Tale of the Tape begins.

The Strengths

The most intriguing aspect of Trevor Lawrence's 2025 season was how he finished.

Over his final seven regular-season games, Lawrence threw for 1,856 yards and 18 touchdowns. Growing more comfortable in Coen's offense certainly played a role, but the additions of Jakobi Meyers and the emergence of Parker Washington were also major factors.

This season, Meyers and Washington will be part of the offense from Week 1, while Brian Thomas Jr. remains capable of bouncing back and Brenton Strange continues to develop at tight end. Jacksonville appears to have one of the league's better receiving corps, giving Lawrence plenty of weapons.

While repeating nine rushing touchdowns is unlikely, coaches continue to recognize that designed quarterback runs are among the NFL's most effective goal-line plays when the quarterback is athletic and physical enough to finish them. Lawrence fits that description well, and six rushing touchdowns this season feels like a very attainable number.

Justin Herbert burst onto the NFL and fantasy scene in 2020, throwing for 4,336 yards and 31 touchdowns as a rookie. He followed that with the statistical high point of his career in 2021, eclipsing 5,000 passing yards while throwing 38 touchdown passes.

Since then, Herbert hasn't matched those numbers, but his early success is a reminder of the ceiling he still possesses with the right coaching. Mike McDaniel's creative offense helped Tua Tagovailoa throw for more than 4,600 yards and nearly 30 touchdowns during his only fully healthy season in Miami. With all due respect to Tagovailoa, Herbert is the superior quarterback in nearly every measurable way.

The Chargers also return continuity in the receiving corps, with Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris all capable of taking another step forward under McDaniel. Add veteran David Njoku and promising rookie Oronde Gadsden at tight end, and Herbert has a strong supporting cast entering 2026.

The Weaknesses

Not everything improved during Lawrence's first season with Liam Coen.

The biggest concern remains his completion percentage. Lawrence completed just 60% of his passes for the second consecutive season after completing 66% in his second NFL campaign. With Lawrence averaging 11.8 yards per completion, returning to that 66% mark would have translated to roughly 400 additional passing yards.

Among quarterbacks with at least 1,000 passing yards, only seven posted a lower completion percentage. It's not exactly an encouraging list, featuring names such as J.J. McCarthy, Cam Ward, Michael Penix Jr., Shedeur Sanders, Joe Flacco and others.

With Jacksonville's improved defense creating more turnovers and giving the offense favorable field position, Lawrence may not receive enough passing volume to completely overcome his accuracy issues.

The other concern is interceptions. Lawrence's total climbed from seven in 2024 to 12 last season. That's hardly a fatal flaw, but it serves as a reminder that Coen didn't completely solve every issue in Year 1.

As mentioned earlier, Jim Harbaugh's offensive philosophy simply isn't built to maximize quarterback fantasy production.

Mike McDaniel should certainly introduce more creativity into the passing game, but Herbert's usage over the final six weeks of 2025 is difficult to ignore. During that stretch, he averaged just 25 pass attempts per game and reached 20 completions only twice.

A healthy Omarion Hampton should make the Chargers offense more efficient, but it could also mean Herbert is asked to throw less often. After being sacked a career-high 54 times last season, Harbaugh is almost certainly looking to reduce Herbert's exposure.

All of that points toward solid QB1 production -- but likely toward the lower end of that tier.

The Verdict

Josh Allen is the only quarterback consistently being drafted within the first three rounds of fantasy drafts this summer. After him, the remaining upper-tier quarterbacks all carry similar upside along with similar question marks.

In the case of Trevor Lawrence versus Justin Herbert, I believe both are capable of finishing among the top five fantasy quarterbacks. With uncertainty surrounding players like Jalen Hurts and Jayden Daniels, that ceiling isn't unrealistic.

Ultimately, however, I keep coming back to how each quarterback finished last season.

Herbert's declining passing volume concerns me, even with Mike McDaniel now coordinating the offense. Lawrence, meanwhile, appeared to find another gear over the second half of the season as both his passing and rushing production increased.

There's no question Lawrence's inconsistent accuracy limits his ceiling, making him more of a solid QB1 than an elite fantasy option. But if Jacksonville can improve his completion percentage even modestly, a true career season could be on the horizon.

The biggest wildcard is McDaniel. What he accomplished with Tagovailoa in Miami suggests Herbert could outperform expectations if the Chargers fully embrace a more aggressive passing attack.

For now, though, Lawrence gets the nod. If you can wait until at least the seventh round of a 12-team draft to select either quarterback, you'll likely be happy with the result. I simply believe Lawrence offers the slightly higher ceiling.

Projected 2026 Statistics

Trevor Lawrence: 4,100 passing yards, 27 TDs; 325 rushing yards, 6 TDs

Justin Herbert: 3,650 passing yards, 28 TDs; 370 rushing yards, 3 TDs