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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Tuesday Morning Buzz
Fantasy Headlines from Week 4
10/04/16

Tevin Coleman

Julio Jones averaged 25 yards per catch as he and Matt Ryan (503-4 TDs) dismantled the Panthers.


Matt and Julio Down by the Schoolyard


If you’re a fan of Paul Simon (yes, I’m old) you’ll get the reference here, but beyond that, it was a day in which the duo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones did take the Carolina defense to school…and then some. Depending on how your league views yardage bonuses, 500-plus yards passing and 300 yards receiving makes for “monster” games. We throw that term around a lot in fantasy football, but this was the textbook definition. Lessons learned: Beware the stud WR who had a quiet game the week before. That would mean that DeAndre Hopkins and/or Odell Beckham Jr. might be due for “monster” games in Week 5. Also, Matt Ryan is here to stay as a starting fantasy QB. I would probably sit him at Denver, but afterwards, proceed with him as your starter unless Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger is on your roster. We probably won’t see another 500-plus yard passing performance or a 300-yard receiving performance so hopefully you reaped the benefits of one or both as opposed to being on the other side of the avalanche.

Beware the Angry Juggernaut

In the same way Julio Jones proved that his Week 3 stat line was a fluke, the Pittsburgh Steelers prove their three bad hours in Philadelphia was an anomaly. On Sunday night, it was five hours of brilliance that resulted in five touchdown passes from Ben Roethlisberger, multiple touchdowns from Antonio Brown, and nearly 180 yards from scrimmage from Le’Veon Bell. We may never fully know or understand what happened in Philly, but the first Sunday of October restored order to the world of fantasy football. Roethlisberger may be the No.1 QB moving forward. I know Brown and Bell are No.1 at their respective positions. Hope you took advantage of some frustrated owner last week and found a way to get one of the big three Steelers on your roster.

The Gronk Dilemma, Part Two…With a Side of Jamaal Charles

For your sake, I hope your selection of Rob Gronkowski and/or Jamaal Charles hasn’t put your season on the brink. Both were seen as fairly safe picks when the majority of fantasy drafts were conducted. Perhaps if you did a Labor Day Weekend draft, you avoided them. Their stat lines in Week 4 weren’t pretty: 1 catch for 11 yards for Gronk; 2 carries for 7 yards for Charles. From this point forward, starting Gronk should be a safer proposition, but Charles’ future is wholly uncertain. To say that the first four weeks of the 2016 season brought about major frustration for their owners is probably saying it too kindly… especially with Martellus Bennett racking up 100 receiving yards for the second time this season. Ouch.

It’s Getting Harder to Dismiss DeMarco


It was said that by October Derrick Henry would be getting the majority of carries in Tennessee. It was said that DeMarco Murray was past his prime and a poor fit in the Titans offense (is there such thing as a good fit in that offense?). After 419 yards rushing in the past three weeks, combined with 5 overall TDs, it seems that fantasy pundits had it wrong. The Titans offense is indeed a mess, but it’s not hindering Murray who received 25 carries on Sunday, by far his most of this season. Most still see Murray as more of a No.2 fantasy RB than a No.1, but who can you honestly put above him at this point? Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson? - Sure. Ezekiel Elliott? - Probably. Melvin Gordon? - Maybe. That would make Murray a top-five RB moving forward assuming Tennessee doesn’t wear him out.

Nightmare Sunday in New England

Rob Gronkowski wasn’t the only belly-flopper in New England over the weekend. The entire WR corps (Edelman, Amendola, Hogan) combined for 1 catch for 16 yards. LeGarrette Blount (13-54) can only do so much when there’s no fear of getting a wide receiver the football. Certainly, having Tom Brady back next week will make a world of difference, but it also may take a couple of weeks for things to begin operating smoothly given how out of synch this offense was on Sunday. One guy to go get this week if he’s available - James White. White caught five passes yesterday and that total could double next week with Brady under center.

Shattering Another Myth: You Shouldn’t Own RBs on Bad NFL Teams

Below the surface, there continues to be a radical shift in fantasy football. It is perhaps the biggest shift in strategy in the 30 years that I have been involved in the hobby. Formerly, it was a rule that you didn’t want RBs on your roster from bad NFL teams. After all, those teams often played from behind and didn’t get into the red zone as often. This year, the flip side has emerged: That is, most bad NFL teams don’t have good quarterbacks and thus MUST rely on their running game to stay competitive. Consider this: five of the top ten fantasy running backs through four weeks come from Tennessee, San Francisco, Cleveland, San Diego, and Buffalo. Those aren’t good NFL teams (although Buffalo is getting better). Isaiah Crowell is averaging 110 yards and nearly a TD every week. Carlos Hyde is averaging 82 yards and over a TD per week. DeMarco Murray and Melvin Gordon have already been mentioned. And, in Week 4, Jordan Howard and Matt Jones both notched well over 100 yards from scrimmage for their mediocre squads. Again, the paradigm has shifted. Bad passing teams become good running teams by necessity. It’s the latest thing.

Finally, Some Clarity in Baltimore

If you happened to read any of my preseason articles, it was noted several times that the Baltimore backfield was perhaps the most difficult situation in the NFL to decipher. That remained the case through three weeks, but in Week 4, Terrance West staked his claim to being “the man” by gaining 113 yards on 21 carries with Justin Forsett a healthy scratch from the game-day roster. So, West is the man going forward, right? You would think so, but remember that Kenneth Dixon is set to return to the field this week and could shake things up yet again. At least for this one moment in time, we can say the Ravens RB situation looks like something other than a badly muddied pond water.

Russell’s Return

Lost in all the Week 4 craziness was a return to normalcy for Russell Wilson. Wilson’s 300-plus yard passing day included three touchdown passes to three different receivers and a bunch of pitch and catch sessions with the re-emerging Jimmy Graham ( 6-113; two additional targets). Wilson didn’t run the ball much (-5 yards rushing), but the high-volume passing attack resembled what we saw from him in November and December of last year. Wilson tends to get bogged down in NFC West divisional tilts for some reason, but remains an elite option when playing outside of the division. His stat line from Sunday was certainly encouraging to say the least.

Will the No.1 Wide Receiver in Oakland Please Stand Up?

Perhaps he already has. For the third consecutive week, Michael Crabtree overshadowed Amari Cooper and now leads Cooper for the season in terms of touchdowns, 4-to-0. Crabtree was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts compared to the trendy Cooper, but thus far this season, Crabtree is scoring more like a fantasy WR1 while Cooper's numbers have been anything but top-notch. So, who is the Oakland WR to own going forward? Derek Carr has been very efficient in the red zone this season and that's where Crabtree excels. I do think Cooper's talent will propel him to top-15 numbers by the middle of the season, but at this point, he's merely 1A/1B with Crabtree, who is no longer the forgotten man in Oak-town.

Monday Night Musings

As you tune in this Tuesday morning, the freshest thing on your mind is what you watched Monday night. As such, here some random thoughts to conclude the Buzz for this week. First, if you own Jerick McKinnon, Monday night was encouraging. Matt Asiata, in the past, has been a TD vulture in recent memory. The fact that McKinnon converted a run inside the five yard-line could give him more red zone opportunities moving forward. He's clearly the best runner in that backfield. On the other side of the ball, Odell Beckham Jr. continues to be shut out of the end zone, a la Cooper. Don't panic. Beckham scored 25 times in his first two years in the league. He's drawn some difficult assignments thus far this season, but better matchups await including the hapless Packers secondary in Week 5.

That's all for the Buzz on this first week of October. What a ride this season has been so far...