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Kirk Hollis | Archive | Email  
Staff Writer


Make or Break RBs
7/22/16

Each year there are a handful of running backs you can pencil in for a certain amount of yardage and a decent number of trips into the end zone. Adrian Peterson comes to mind as a “you know what you're getting” kind of player. But, in the world of fantasy football, reliable running backs are becoming scarce as wide receivers and quarterbacks have emerged as safer options - at least that was the case last season.

However, several running backs this season have tremendous upside, but also carry plenty of risk for various reasons. Navigating this group of runners and targeting the right ones could lead to a heap of fantasy success by season’s end. Let's examine five RBs who can make or break your draft.

Devonta Freeman

Devonta Freeman did the majoriy of his damage during a four-week span early in the season.

Devonta Freeman - Atlanta Falcons

The numbers from last year suggest that Devonta Freeman is an elite fantasy running back. After all, he gained over 1,600 yards from scrimmage and scored 14 TDs. In the modern world of aerial assault, those are impressive figures. But they should be examined carefully. Freeman scored 10 of his 14 touchdowns in a torrid stretch of games from Week 2 through Week 6. He also produced nearly 50 percent of his yardage totals during that same stretch. And the defenses he faced in those five games? How about Dallas, Washington, New Orleans, and Tennessee to name four of the five. From Week 8 on, Freeman was a prototypical RB2.

2016 Outlook: BREAKER. Freeman is talented and it's doubtful he will bust, but he could render your team weak at the lead running back spot if you spend a late first round pick on him in a redraft league. The Falcons would like to see Freeman assume a Giovani Bernard type role this season, albeit with a few more touches than Bernard typically sees. Tevin Coleman is thus the Jeremy Hill that equation and could steal some of Freeman's touches near the goal line. The advice here is to let someone else roll the dice on Freeman as a top-20 overall pick. If he's available beyond that, he would be worth consideration, but he will break your team if chosen based on last year's misleading stat line.

Eddie Lacy - Green Bay Packers

Nothing in 2015 was more frustrating than waiting on Eddie Lacy to assume some sort of meaningful role within the structure of the Packers offense. He was overweight and lacked both the power and the burst that made him a top tier runner in both 2013 and 2014. His coach called him out immediately after the season and put him on notice that another off-season like 2015 would end his time with the Packers. In reality, Lacy's 4.1 ypc wasn't much different than prior years but his longest gain from scrimmage was less than 30 yards and he only scored a paltry three rushing touchdowns. Does last season suggest that Lacy's heavy college workload has begun to eat (no pun intended) into his ability to be the running back he appeared to be prior to last year? It's a question serious owners will be going back and forth on all summer prior to having to make a Lacy decision on draft day.

2016 Outlook: MAKER. If you were a 2015 Lacy owner, the pain of that debacle may be too much to overcome. But, if you're willing to roll the dice, I think Lacy could end up being an undervalued steal on draft day assuming Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy can trust Lacy from inside the 5-yard line again like they did during 2013 and 2014. When the Packers review what is needed in 2016, a more balanced attack ala 2014 will no doubt top the list. Obviously, Lacy doesn't deserve to be anyone's first round pick this season, but as a second rounder, he'll be hard to beat. Watch during camp to see if the conditioning has improved and if so, make him a top 20 pick.

Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs

This year definitely marks a crossroads for the talented, but somewhat risky Mr. Charles. The last time Charles missed more than one game in a season (2011), he bounced back with his only 1,500-plus yard rushing season in 2012. Charles was 26 years old back then, though, and this time around, he'll hit 30 towards the end of the year. So, is Charles' best years behind him or is a Curtis Martin-like late career resurgence a likelihood? That's difficult to know given the uncertainty surrounding his physical recovery and the emergence of two semi-capable backfield mates in the form of Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware. Anyone who has enjoyed the fruits of Charles' most productive seasons will be tempted to select him late in the first round or early in the second of redrafts next month. But, should you?

2016 Outlook: BREAKER. We threw out several names above, but failed to mention the most significant name in the equation: Andy Reid. Reid oversaw the rise and fall of the very talented Brian Westbrook during his tenure in Philadelphia. Reid limited Westbrook's carries to less than 250 in all but one season and preferred to pass in the red zone rather than run the ball. Not much has changed in terms of handling his current top weapon. In 2014 (Reid's first year with the Chiefs), Charles had 53 less carries in the same number of games played. He also had five fewer touchdowns. And now two years later and coming off a knee injury, does increasing Charles's touches make sense? No. Let me put it plainly. Running backs that carry the ball 200 times in a season and score fewer than double digit touchdowns aren't first round picks. They probably shouldn't even be picked in the second round. Sure, Reid could break tradition, but I’m not betting on it. Buyer beware.

Carlos Hyde - San Francisco 49ers

Have you seen the 49ers depth chart at running back? Shaun Draughn, Mike Davis, and sixth-round draft pick Kelvin Taylor don't pose much of a threat to Hyde, leaving a healthy Carlos to be the beneficiary of Chip Kelly's run-heavy offense. Hyde may be a better fit in Kelly's system than LeSean McCoy ever was and the Kelly-McCoy marriage wasn't too bad from a fantasy football standpoint. Hyde has certainly showed flashes in his career to date with 182 yards and 2 TDs during Week 1 against Minnesota last season. But, the 49ers imploded as a team in the weeks to follow and Hyde kind of went down with the ship until an injury mercifully ended his season. So, how do we value Hyde? If you read between the lines of my opening statement, you know where we're headed here…

2016 Outlook: MAKER. Hyde belongs on any list of high-risk draft day selections because 1) he hasn't demonstrated to be a true/consistent fantasy force, and 2) he plays on a really bad team. Do not let that deter you from recognizing his role this season. He will be the centerpiece of Chip Kelly's efforts to redeem himself after his best laid plans fell flat in Philadelphia. No one can predict injuries and certainly Hyde comes with some risk in that department. But, I'll stake everything I've got on Hyde being a top ten back this year assuming minimal interruptions in production due to health. I like him to take advantage of Kelly’s system that ranked 11th and 7th in rushing attempts the last two seasons. Make him a late-second, early-third round pick at RB and he'll make you happy.

Matt Jones - Washington Redskins

The final rusher that we'll focus on is in a situation very similar to Hyde. Matt Jones showed flashes of being an elite level back last season, but nagging injuries and the presence of veteran Alfred Morris kept Jones from truly breaking out along with his tendency to put the ball on the ground (5 fumbles lost). Now, he'll get a chance to be the lead back from day one with very little competition and in an offense that learned how to spread the field as the 2015 season progressed. He's totally unproven in a way that goes beyond Hyde, but there simply isn't the talent at the position to keep him from garnering 15-20 touches a game minimum.

2016 Outlook: MAKER. Of the five running backs noted in this article, Jones can be had at the cheapest price. His current ADP stands at RB21 behind Hyde at RB17. Of the five, though, he may end up being the best of the bunch in terms of value as defined by production relative to draft position. Chris Thompson will get some work on third down, but Jones' five games over 20 receiving yards including a 131-yard outburst vs. New Orleans last season proves that he can be a threat through the air. MAKE no mistake; no running back is in a better position to take a giant leap forward than Jones.





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