The focus of this column will be to either post value plays for
the week on FanDuel or players I will be fading in my cash lineups.
This week we are going to go back to the fade as it was highly
popular last week.
Before we dive in, I want to recap what happened in Week 4 with
my primary cash game lineup.
It was almost the polar opposite of Week 3 where scores were ridiculously
high. In Week 4 you were able to cash with a below average score
and even with a couple stud receivers posting duds, I was able
to cash in the majority of my head-to-heads and 50/50’s.
The value play of the week, RB Karlos Williams came through in
the end and TE Martellus Bennett against the Raiders was a slam-dunk
as expected. A 21-point performance from the Falcons-D helped
me weather the storm that was Julio Jones and Randall Cobb. Winning
is nice, but let’s hope for a better score this week.
As we move forward to Week 5, it is important to realize that
choosing players to fade in cash games can be every bit as important
as finding value. Some of these fades lead me to this week’s
lineup, which I believe represent a very high floor… exactly
what you want in cash game lineups.
The days of Matthew Stafford posting huge fantasy stats on the
shoulders of Calvin Johnson has come and gone and there is no
way you can trust him in your cash lineup against the Arizona
Cardinals in Week 5. The Cardinals are second in the league in
interceptions and give up one of the fewest fantasy points to
quarterbacks in the league. Tight end Eric Ebron (knee) has shown
some development in his second season but the secondary weapons
in Detroit aren’t drawing coverage away from Calvin Johnson.
The Denver Broncos may have the best defense in the entire NFL
which includes an exceptional pass rush. Last week against the
Bears, Derek Carr underwhelmed against one of the worst defenses
in the league (Chicago). It will be interesting to see how Carr
does under pressure and with number-one receiver Amari Cooper
most likely shadowed by Aqib Talib. I was all in on Carr last
week in cash but I think this game has the overall feeling of
a defensive struggle and I do not trust it in my cash lineups.
Gordon has been a popular GPP play the past few weeks as many
were just waiting for him to break out against a putrid Cleveland
Browns defense. Gordon was not able to get it done behind a decimated
Chargers offensive line. He was also given a goal line carry but
was stuffed. I can’t see the Broncos featuring him in the
red zone as Danny Woodhead has proved he can handle that role.
Justin Forsett ran for 150 yards in Week 4 against the Steelers,
but they have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running
backs this season. The Chargers will have to look to the short-intermediate
passing game so the options of Keenan Allen and Antonio Gates
are much more enticing. Gordon is a fade for me in cash until
he shows me he can be trusted.
It is ridiculous to me that Graham is consistently still second
highest priced tight end at FanDuel. The Seahawks have not shown
that they are willing to give him a high volume on a consistent
basis. Volume is always something we are looking for in cash lineups.
Touchdowns cannot be very accurately predicted so stocking your
lineup full of targets or touches is a much more viable strategy.
Frustration is clearly mounting for Graham and especially his
fantasy owners. This week he will face a Bengals defense that
has fully capable coverage safeties that have done a great job
containing tight ends this year. They have yet to give up a touchdown
to the position this season.
This goes along with the Stafford narrative that the Lions’ offense
is an absolute mess right now. After his great stretch during
a Calvin Johnson injury last season, Golden Tate has yet to regain
that form. He has yet to score a touchdown in 2015 as the Lions
have had some difficult matchups early on. This week against the
Cardinals will be no different and to compound problems, Tate
has not been on the field as much as last year. Lumped in the
same salary range of guys like Jordan
Matthews and James
Jones, I can’t see myself owning any shares of Tate in cash
this week.
Carlos Hyde made this list last week and a lot of it has to do
with what most of us were projecting this summer coming to fruition.
Game script will almost always be Hyde’s worst enemy as
San Francisco will play from behind… a lot. While the Giants
have not been great against the run, specifically they have struggled
against pass catching running backs. That plays right into Hyde’s
backup Reggie Bush as he is finally healthy and is the primary
receiving running back for the team. Hyde could get significant
work early but is likely to be a disappointment if this one does
not stay close. I don’t like the lack of clarity on his
touches, which makes him a fade for me in Week 5.
The matchup against the Seahawks is enough for me to pivot off
of Marvin Jones, even though I do like him to ultimately rebound
from his poor Week 4 performance. He had just two targets for
4 yards against the Chiefs and it’s tough to see him being
more involved this week. Jones is clearly a boom-or-bust receiver
in this offense fully capable of reeling in deep passes, but equally
capable of dud performances when quarterback Andy Dalton has his
eyes on other options in the passing game.
Even though he produced an impressive stat line of all-purpose
yards in Week 4 (12-63, 3-62), the majority of Crowell’s yards
came on a 53-yard reception. Regardless, he will be on the DFS
radar this week even with the poor matchup against the Baltimore
Ravens on the docket. The trouble here is, rookie running back
Duke
Johnson has shown more toughness between the tackles and is
a much better receiver out of the backfield. It is clear that
the coaching staff is taking notice and in Week 4, Crowell played
just 37% of the teams offensive snaps. Those are not the kind
of usage numbers you are looking for in cash lineups and he represents
too much risk for me this week.
