The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Broncos, Cardinals, Chargers, Chiefs, Seahawks, Titans

Start 'Em

Rex Grossman vs. Phi
Grossman’s fantasy numbers have regressed with each week, but since last season he has thrown at least 1 TD pass in every game he has started as a Redskin. It is a small sample size, but in 3 home games, Grossman has averaged 2 TDs, 1 INT and 292 passing yards per game; in 4 road games he has averaged 1.75 TDs, 1.5 INTs and 220 passing yards per game. Coming off of their bye, Washington should be rested and ready to take on the struggling defense of the Eagles at FedEx Field. Despite allowing an average of 211.8 passing yards per game, Philadelphia has allowed 11 aerial TDs, the second highest total in the NFL (Kansas City, 12).

Colt McCoy @ Oak
Through four games in 2011, McCoy appears to be settling in nicely in Cleveland. Prior to the Browns’ Week 5 bye, McCoy had his first career 300-yard game. He has posted 6 TDs and 3 INTs and has tossed at least 1 TD pass in each game this season. While his accuracy (58.1%) remains an issue, it is not a relevant statistic in most formats. McCoy should not be relied upon to deliver significant yardage totals, but he is set up for success in Oakland this week. The Raiders have allowed an average of 299.6 passing yards per game (4th highest in NFL) while serving up 10 passing TDs (3rd highest in NFL). The Browns ability to run the ball should help open up the field for McCoy to deliver to WRs Mohamed Massaquoi and Greg Little and TE Ben Watson.

Hope is not lost for Matty Ice.

Andy Dalton vs. Ind
Dalton makes for an intriguing bye-week fill in this week at home against the Colts. He has been solid, if unspectacular this season - and really has had only 1 “stinker” (Week 3 vs. SF) in his 5 starts. Like McCoy above, Dalton does not figure to post big yardage totals and the Colts are middle-of-the-road in terms of passing yards allowed (254.2 per game). However, he does have impressive rookie WR A.J. Green and emerging TE Jermaine Gresham as top receiving options. With 45 combined catches, it appears that Dalton knows where to bread his butter. The Colts have allowed opposing QBs an average rating of 102.5, the fourth highest number in the NFL.

Matt Ryan vs. Car
Much to the chagrin of fantasy owners, Ryan has been unable to find any consistency from week to week. After his 2010 season concluded with 28 TDs and 9 INTs, his 7 TDs and 6 INTs leave a lot to be desired. Fortunately, all hope is not lost, especially from a fantasy perspective. Ryan stands to benefit from the Falcons leaky defense this week as he should be consistently relied upon to make plays. While the loss of WR Julio Jones hurts, this game should still have its fair share of scoring. The Panthers have been kind to opposing QBS as they are tied for 24th in the league in sacks (8), tied for 21st in INTs (3), and they have allowed an average of 8.7 yards per pass, which is the highest number in the league.

Bench 'Em

Matt Schaub @ Bal
Schaub showed plenty of guts in an impressive performance (416 yards on 51 attempts) last week against Oakland without top option Andre .Johnson. Schaub is listed as day-to-day with a sore shoulder and a bruised thigh and ‘banged up’ is not the preferred approach to face the tough Ravens defense at M&T Bank Stadium. Since they surrendered 358 yards to Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck in Week 2, Baltimore allowed 244 passing yards - combined - in their next two games (@Rams, vs. Jets). In four games, the Ravens have 6 INTs and have allowed just 3 passing TDs. You may have to roll with him, but it will tough for Schaub to produce flashy totals in this spot.

Curtis Painter @ Cin
Painter has had two notable fantasy performances since taking the reins to the Indianapolis offense. His completion percentage (48.5%) is ugly but he has averaged 279 passing yards per game and tossed 4 TDs with no interceptions in his two starts. It is worth noting, however, that both starts came against two of the least imposing pass defenses in the NFL. Through 10 games combined, Kansas City and Tampa have allowed 21 aerial scores, 40 passing plays of 20 yards or more and registered just 15 sacks. I can envision a bit of a wakeup call for Painter in Cincinnati this week. The Bengals have not really been tested, but also have not allowed more than 202 passing yards in a game this season

Jason Campbell vs. Cle
Campbell was wildly inaccurate last week in Houston (15 of 35 passing; 42.9 %) but still managed to total multiple TDs for the 3rd time in five Raider starts in 2011. He remains a decent second QB option, but should probably be left alone this week against the Browns. The Cleveland pass defense has been solid, albeit untested, allowing an average of 195.5 passing yards per game. Despite having allowed just 1 rushing TD, their run defense is susceptible and it’s easy to envision the Raiders feeding the ball early and often to RB Darren McFadden.

Alex Smith @ Det
Thanks to the best start of his career, Smith is now being mentioned as a hot bye-week plug. I can’t argue with his numbers; coach Jim Harbaugh seems to have lit a fire under him. It should be mentioned that Smith is unlikely post big yardage totals; his high water mark is 278 for the season and he failed to top 176 yards in the other four games. Smith has an impressive 7-to-1 TD to INT ratio, but he failed to toss a TD pass in Weeks 1 & 3. The 49ers rank 32nd in the NFL in pass attempts (129) and 6th in rush attempts (146) and RB Frank Gore now seems to have found his game after a slow start. The Lions are not an easy team to throw on; they are one of five NFL teams (Bills, 49ers, Jets, Ravens) who have more INTs (7) than passing TDs allowed (6).

Running Backs