The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: Texans, Colts, Saints, Steelers

Start 'Em

Carson Palmer @ Min
Back-up-less Brees or Roethlisberger owners should look no further than Palmer, who appears to be a good fit for the Raiders run-heavy, yet chance-taking offense. Take away his crash-course first game of the season in Week 7 and Palmer has 5 TDs, 4 INTs and averaged 315.5 passing yards per game over his last two. His 14.95 yards per attempt last week was the highest mark of his career and broke the Raiders franchise record set in 1968. The rapport with WR Denarius Moore should be on display this week against one of the NFL’s softest pass defenses in Minnesota. Only the Colts (19) have allowed more passing TDs than the Vikings (18). Over the last four games, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Cam Newton and Jay Cutler have combined for 12 aerial TDs and 0 INTs against Minnesota.

Matt Moore vs. Buf
The suddenly hot (err, warm?) Miami Dolphins and Matt Moore look for their 3rd straight win and face a vulnerable Buffalo squad that has dropped three of its last four. QB Tony Romo made it look easy last week (270 yards, 3 TDs) against the Bills and Moore has a shot to have some fleeting fantasy relevance this week. Over his last two, he has completed 71% of his passes and, in addition to improved accuracy, Moore has shown mobility since taking over for the injured Chad Henne. Another benefit is his willingness to target big WR Brandon Marshall; the two are clearly on the same page. The Bills have allowed 14 passing TDs and an average of 261.4 passing yards per game.

Jay Cutler vs. SD
The Bears defense and special teams rendered Cutler a game-manager (19 pass attempts) last week against the Lions, but look for him to bounce back against the reeling Chargers. San Diego has allowed 7 TDs compared to 3 INTs in their last 3 games and 17 aerial TDs overall. With Cutler, sacks are always a concern but the Bears offensive line has only allowed only 5 in the last four games and the Chargers have just 18, which ranks them 23rd in the league. San Diego seems to find themselves in close, offensive games, which should serve to help Cutler back to fantasy respectability this week.

Christian Ponder vs. Oak
The speedy rookie Ponder has had the misfortune of facing the Packers in two of his first three NFL starts. Green Bay is mostly responsible for his ugly completion percentage, which is hovering around 50%, although he completed 64% of his passes for 236 yards against the Panthers in Week 8. He’ll be much more comfortable this week at home against the Raiders, who have served up 16 aerial TDs this season despite not having been tested much in recent weeks. I’ve reflected deeply on this – this week Ponder gives the home crowed a little something to cheer about.

Bench 'Em

Tim Tebow vs. NYJ
A case can be made to start Tebow, but outside of being a home game, from my angle Thursday night’s matchup against the Jets doesn’t offer much upside. In four starts (five games), Tebow has somehow thrown 7 TDs with just 1 INT despite a horrific 44.8 completion percentage, including 2-of-8 passing last week. His lack of passing acumen is made up for with his running ability, but I like the Jets to hold him in check this week. New York has 13 INTs and their 8 passing TDs allowed is tied (Redskins) for the second-lowest number in the league.

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Mia
Look for the downward spiral to continue in Miami this week for Fitzpatrick. Since his 7-TD, 3-INT three-game start to the season, Fitzpatrick has tossed only 7 TDs with 9 INTs in his last six games, with just two games over 200 passing yards in that span. Miami has stepped up defensively in recent weeks, although containing RB Fred Jackson may be too much to ask, the ‘Fins should be able to keep Fitz under wraps. Over the last five weeks, QBs not named of Eli Manning (349 in Week 8) have averaged just 207.5 passing yards per game against Miami.

If your league penalizes for INTs take note of Freeman's 9:13 TD-INT ratio.

Philip Rivers @ Chi
Many have been waiting for the 2011 resurgence of Philip Rivers, who threw for a career-high 4,710 yards last season, but reality should have settled in by now. Ten weeks into the season, Rivers leads the NFL in interceptions (15 – ties his career high) and turnovers (19). Sure there is plenty of football left, but Rivers has been a colossal disappointment for fantasy owners. He’s got 6 TDs and 6 INTs over his last three games and although the passing yards are starting to come, he has thrown multiple INTs in 6 of 8 starts and has had just 1 turnover-free game (Week 4). While Chicago has little resemblance to their ’85 squad, they have won four straight games, are 4-1 at home and are tied for 4th in the NFL with 13 INTs.

Josh Freeman @GB
With 4 TDs and 7 INTs over his last three games, it’s hard to imagine that Freeman’s sprained thumb isn’t somehow factoring into his subpar play. Even if he is 100% healthy, I would not trust him this week in Green Bay. Each week, opponents are forced to play catch up versus the Packers, which has inflated their average passing yards per game allowed to 284.3, but they also lead the NFL with 17 INTs. This should be no different for the Bucs and Freeman is going to have plenty of pass attempts. However, Freeman’s TD to INT ratio of 9:13 is not getting it done; simply put, Tampa’s receiving corps is nothing to write home about and it could be another long day for the young signal caller.

Running Backs