The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like quality fantasy starters for the given week and, on the flip side, to expose some of the more highly-regarded players who just may disappoint. Each week I will take into consideration not only the individuals mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course injuries. In my years of involvement with fantasy sports, I’ve found that playing probabilities often leads to success, but that does not necessarily mean that a journeyman RB cannot gain 100-plus rushing yards against the top-ranked rush defense or that Tom Brady is a lock for 350 yards and 3 TDs against the worst pass defense. Anything can happen.

With this dynamic, stat-driven article layered with insight and opinion, however, I aim to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Got a specific roster question or something interesting to say? Send me an email. I may not be able to get to all of your questions or comments, but I will do my best to respond accordingly.

Quarterbacks

Bye Weeks: None

Start 'Em

Mark Sanchez vs. NE
While the Jets are coming off a big division win over the Bills, from a fantasy perspective, Sanchez is coming off his second-worst game of the season (230 passing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 fumble). The good news is that despite averaging just 222 passing yards per game, Sanchez has thrown double-digit TDs in5 of his 8 games this season. More of a game manager than an attacker, Sanchez has a nice matchup on paper against the Patriots, who remain the NFL’s only team to allow more than 300 passing yards per game (314). During his Week 5 contest @ New England, Sanchez completed 16-of-26 passes for 166 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INT.

Cutlers has history on his side.

Jay Cutler vs. Det
It’s been the type of year that just when he seems to have turned a corner, Cutler stumbles mightily the following week. So naturally, I have to recommend him as a play this week versus the Lions (sarcasm). He finished with 202 yards and 2 TDs in Philadelphia on Monday, but the most intriguing stat was zero sacks of Cutler by the Eagles. The Bears offensive line will find it difficult to pitch another perfect game against the Lions pass rush, but a closer look at Cutler’s head-to-head matchups with Detroit should serve to give fantasy owners some comfort. This will be his 6th start against the Lions as a member of the Bears; the last time he faced them (Week 5) he was 28-of-38 for 249 yards and 1 TD. Including that Week 5 performance he has played very well against the Lions: 10 TDs, 1 INT in 5 games played with an average of 254.4 passing yards per game.

Tony Romo vs. Buf
So with Romo, we have to look at his stats as they played out before the bye and after the bye. Before the Cowboys Week 5 Bye, an injured Tony Romo averaged 318.3 passing yards with 7 TDs and 5 INTs. After their bye (when Cowboys managment must have directed Romo to be safer with the ball) his per game average dipped to 241.3 passing yards with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. So which Romo is better, the one that throws for 300 somewhat reckless yards, chock full o’ TDs and INTs, or the one that does more game management and throws for fewer yards, but limits the turnovers? Well, your league’s scoring is the deciding factor; regardless, I still like Romo this week. The Bills pass defense, while opportunistic (15 INTs), has allowed 7.7 yards per play and 260.4 yards per game.

Matt Cassel vs. Den
By no stretch of the imagination has Cassel been great this season, in fact he has been pretty bad over the last 3 games (1 TD, 4 INTs) and he was unable to throw for a TD against the weak secondary of the Dolphins last week. After a big Monday night win over the division-rival Chargers in Week 8, the ‘Fins game had “trap” written all over it. In any event, the Broncos are coming to Arrowhead Stadium this week after a big win over the division-rival Raiders. While Cassel has been hard to trust, I think it lines up nicely for him and his talented trio of wide receivers for a solid day against the Broncos pass defense. Denver has served up 17 aerial TDs while intercepting just 6 passes.

Bench 'Em

Ben Roethlisberger @ Cin
Paul Brown Stadium plays host to a great NFL matchup this week, but that might not translate into big fantasy numbers for Roethlisberger. He’s on fire with 3 straight 300-yard games (361, 365 & 330) with 6 TDs and just 2 INTs in that span, but it’s not too difficult to envision a more traditional, AFC North, defensive-type battle in Cincinnati. Both pass defenses are in the top-10 in the league. The Bengals are tied for 3rd with just 8 passing TDs allowed and opponents have averaged 216.8 passing yards per game against them.

Andy Dalton vs. Pit
Red-headed rookie signal caller Andy “Pain Don’t Hurt” Dalton had his first 3-TD game as a professional last week and he continues to play very well in helping the Bengals to a 5-game winning streak. He is coming off his best game since Week 2, but let’s not get carried away - Dalton has his hands full this week as he squares off against the Steelers, who rank 3rd in the NFL in passing yards allowed (184.7 per game). Pittsburgh has rebounded well in the games after their previous 2 losses and I expect more of the same again in Week 10.

Josh Freeman vs. Hou
It’s hard to make a case for Freeman against the Houston Texans, who have one of the NFL’s top pass defenses. They have limited opponents to 182.6 passing yards per game and have more INTs (11) than passing TDs allowed (10). Consider that the Texans style of play really does not bode well for opposing team QBs. Houston leads the NFL with 313 rush attempts (34.8 per game) and they rank 2nd in the league in time of possession (33:43 per game). This should directly translate into fewer opportunities for Freeman and the Bucs offense.

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Dal
The Bills have lost 2-of-3 and play 4 out of their next 5 games on the road; they are no longer the Cinderella story many want them to be. Last week, Fitzpatrick had his worst game of the season. The reality is, after a hot 3-game start in which he averaged 280 passing yards per game and tossed 9 TDs with just 3 INTs, Fitz numbers have suffered considerably. In his last 5, he has thrown only 6 TDs and has 6 INTs to go along with 217.8 passing yards per game. Without any teams on bye this week, Fitzpatrick is not a preferred option.

Running Backs