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The Shot Caller's Report - QBs
Your Weekly Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 3
9/25/09
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Note: You certainly don’t need me to tell you that elite players like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Jason Witten, etc., are ‘must-starts’ every week. Never (ever!) sit a stud, unless you’re prepared to get burned (and subsequently ridiculed by league mates). It is equally as effortless for me to tell you to sit the rookie QBs, 2nd string RBs and journeyman WRs. That is not what this column is about. The purpose of the Shot Caller’s Report is to identify players who I expect to perform like a quality fantasy starter on a given week; and on the flip side, exposing some of the more highly-regarded players who I anticipate could disappoint.

Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to your team? Fire away.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Eli Manning @ TB
You have got to be impressed with Manning’s composure if you watched him control the clock during his game winning drive in Dallas last Sunday night. Granted, Eli’s done this before, and this performance doesn’t mean he is going to be a fantasy gem each and every week, but THIS week, he will be. Tampa’s D is bad and the Giants QB is clicking with his young receivers. Strike while the iron is hot.

Jake Delhomme @ DAL
I admit that I was running scared from Delhomme last week, but facing the Cowboys overrated, underachieving defense this week makes a vast difference. Dallas consistently gives up big plays and the ‘Original’ Steve Smith has been known to make a big play or two, which bodes very well for his QB this week. This game will get Delhomme keep on track, albeit for another week only. Last week he completed 61% of his passes en route to a 300-yard day.

David Garrard @ HOU
You won’t see me backing Garrard very often this year, but now that he has shown some semblance of a rapport with Torry Holt and Mike Sims-Walker, he can be effective given the right matchup. Week 3 at Houston presents one of those opportunities. The Texans are in the bottom third of the league in pass defense and this game has the makings of a shootout.

Matt Schaub vs. JAX
Schaub is coming off of arguably the best game of his career where he tossed 4 TDs with no interceptions and threw for 357 yards. As long as he is healthy, he has the potential to be very good every week. The Jags defense is also in the bottom tier (with the aforementioned Texans) of the league and Schaub should keep the momentum headed in the right direction. In his last game against Jacksonville (9.28.08), Schaub threw for 307 yards and 2 TDs with no INTs.

Philip Rivers vs. MIA
The Miami Dolphins have given up 4 aerial scores in 2 games and have yet to intercept a pass. Rivers, averaging 344 passing yards per game, needs to be in your lineup against Miami’s weak pass D. The Dolphins decent run defense should serve to keep them in the game and Rivers will have to make some plays with his arm, which is just what fantasy owners want.

Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Joe Flacco vs. CLE
Flacco has been solid this year and certainly makes for a quality backup for your fantasy team. This week concerns me though, as Cleveland is giving up an average of 205 rushing yards per game. While the Ravens offense has more balance this year, the Browns beg to be run on and Baltimore will control this game on the ground. Flacco won’t hurt you, but there are options that have a chance to be more productive with their matchups.

Matt Cassel @ PHI
The Eagles will be amped up for a big defensive performance after getting shredded by Drew Brees last week. Cassel and his nearly recovered sprained right knee will likely have trouble in Philadelphia, one of three teams tied amongst the league lead with 6 interceptions. The Chiefs just aren’t very good and while Cassel may get the yardage you desire, don’t be surprised if he throws more picks than TDs for a second straight week.

Byron Leftwich vs. NYG
Let’s be honest - Leftwich isn’t a great NFL or fantasy quarterback - by any means. He’s never thrown more than 3,000 yards or 15 TD’s in a season. He has had success this year because he has already attempted 91 passes, largely due to the fact that the Bucs are getting drilled every Sunday. The NY Giants present the toughest challenge thus far, and barring a letdown by Big Blue, not much will go right this week for Leftwich.

Jay Cutler

Which Jay Cutler will show up this week?

Jay Cutler @ SEA
Which Jay Cutler will show up in Week 3? Tough to say, Cutler has the potential to play very well – 2 TDs last week against Pittsburgh – or let you down – 4 INTs against the Pack in Week 1. Say what you will about the Seahawks, but they are 1 of 4 squads who have not allowed a passing TD this season. Teams are averaging just 146.5 passing yards per game against Seattle, but 166.5 rushing yards, so look for the Bears to lean heavily on Matt Forte.

Kyle Orton @ OAK
Orton hasn’t been bad, but he only has 2 passing TD’s including Brandon Stokley’s fluky last minute grab in Week 1. The Raiders pass D is good and I expect them to play well at home. You really can’t expect anything even close to prolific from Orton, that’s just not how the team is designed. If he does what his coaches ask - play smart and limit his mistakes, he will be serviceable for the Broncos, but not for your fantasy squad.

Running Backs