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The Shot Caller's Report - QBs
Your Weekly Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 15
12/17/09
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to your team? Fire away.

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Kurt Warner @ DET
Warner followed the best 4-game stretch of his career with a disastrous performance; he threw for just 178 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INT against San Francisco on Monday Night. He also got sacked 4 times and fumbled twice (lost 1). Think back to Week 8 when he threw 5 picks and lost a fumble to Carolina; he followed that game up with a 5 TD performance in Chicago, and ended up throwing 12 TDs and 0 INTs until last week’s debacle. I really like the chances that Warner will bounce back in a big way this week. Consider that he faces the Lions, by far the worst pass-defense team in the NFL. Detroit has allowed 272.1 passing YPG and an absurd 29 aerial scores.

Jason Campbell vs. NYG
I’m fairly stunned to be endorsing Campbell at this point in the season, but he is playing as well right now as he ever has. He has thrown multiple TD passes in 3 straight games for the first time in his career and has averaged 273.3 passing YPG with 7 TDs and 3 INTs in that span. While the Giants have kept opponents passing yardage totals down (206.5 YPG – thanks to early season matchups with the Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders), they have been burned for an alarming 23 aerial scores and 41 passing plays of 20+ yards this year. Over the last 2 weeks, New York has allowed an average of 338 passing YPG and served up 5 passing TDs. If your QB situation is murky, Campbell could be the surprising answer.

Tony Romo

Can Romo take advantage of New Orleans' banged up secondary?

Tony Romo @ NO
In oxymoronic fashion, Romo has been red-hot for the ice-cold Cowboys. His QB rating of 111.7 last week marked his 3rd straight game with a rating over 100 – the 2nd time this season he’s had such a streak. Romo has gone 3 straight games without an interception, tying the longest streak of his career (set earlier this season); during that stretch Romo has averaged 316.67 passing YPG and tossed 7 TDs. The task is taller this week in New Orleans, but it’s reasonable to envision a game in which the Cowboys trail for most of the game, forcing Romo to throw the ball and make some plays. The Saints have an impressive 24 INTs this season, which is a concern, but they are banged up at the cornerback position, which should bode well for both Tony and the Dallas’ receivers.

Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Brett Favre @ CAR
The Panthers limited Tom Brady to 192 yards and 1 TD and smothered WR Randy Moss last week (1 catch for 16 yards, 1 fumble lost). Favre himself threw for just 192 yards last week against Cincinnati, his lowest total since Week 2. As bad as the Panthers offensive attack appears to be, their pass defense is very good. They are 1 of 6 NFL squads to hold opponents under 200 passing YPG (192.4) and they have more INTs (18) than passing TDs allowed (13). The Panthers have done a solid job at limiting big plays; they have allowed just 29 passing plays of 20+ yards, which is tied for the 3rd lowest total in the league. We all know what Favre is capable of, but the Panthers defense has the ability to keep his totals modest.

Philip Rivers vs. CIN
Rivers has played at a very high level this season; although his 272 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT last week in Dallas were slightly underwhelming. The Bengals have one of the top defenses in the NFL and they are coming off a game in which they limited Brett Favre to 192 yards and 1 TD. Rivers certainly has the capability and the weapons to trump the numbers, but it is reasonable to assume that his totals could be more humble than we’ve grown to expect from him. The Bengals have allowed an average of 209.1 passing YPG and are 1 of 7 NFL teams with more INTs (15) than passing TDs allowed (14).

Tom Brady @ BUF
In the last 3 weeks, there has been evidence that the rib, shoulder and finger injuries have caught up with Tom Terrific. He has 3 TDs and 5 INTs while averaging 260.3 passing YPG in that span. All things considered, the Bills play well at home and they have one of the best pass defense units in the league. They have allowed just 189.2 passing YPG; they lead the NFL with 25 INTs and are 2nd in allowing just 10 aerial TDs this year. On the other hand, Buffalo has a dreadful run defense, and it is important to note that Brady has thrown more TDs against the Bills (32) in his career than any other NFL team. Without a no-brainer alternative with a great match up, Brady may still be your go-to guy, but prolific numbers should not be expected.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. GB
Roethlisberger was sacked 8 times in Pittsburgh's loss to Cleveland on Thursday night. Remarkably, he did not throw any INTs, but he was held without a TD pass for the second time in 4 games. In spite of my respect for him, I’m just not comfortable hinging my hopes of getting to a championship game on Roethlisberger’s arm considering the state of the Steelers. Furthermore, the Packers have held opponents to an average of 187 passing YPG and have not given up over 217 yards in 6 weeks, although they have allowed 24 passing TDs this season. In their last 3 games, Green Bay has 9 INTs and 4 passing TDs allowed.

Running Backs