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The Shot Caller's Report - QBs
Your Weekly Guide To Fantasy Lineups: Week 14
12/10/09
Positions: QBs | RBs | WRs

Each week when compiling this report, I take into consideration not only the individual players mentioned, but also the state of their teams and their opponents, team schedules, historical player performance, inclement weather (when applicable), and of course, injuries. This is a dynamic, stat-driven article that aims to assist you in making the right roster decisions for your fantasy squad. Your feedback is important to me, so please keep the emails coming. Got a specific roster question relative to your team? Fire away.

Many of us will begin our playoff run this week, for some it starts in Week 15; either way - remember to continue to start the players that got your team to where it is. Now is not the time to over-think or overanalyze these decisions. Put your best team out there and hope the fantasy gods reward you swiftly and appropriately. Good luck!

Quarterbacks

Start 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Matt Schaub vs. SEA
Despite dislocating his non-throwing shoulder last week, all indications are that Schaub will play this week against Seattle, and both the Texans and fantasy owners need to have him out there. The Texans running game is stagnant, which means Schaub will continue to throw the ball downfield. He is completing 68% of his passes and remains a threat to throw for 300+ passing yards in every game. The Seahawks are decent against the run (13th in the NFL), but have allowed 243.5 passing YPG and 22 aerial TDs. Barring a setback in practice, make sure Matt is in your lineup this week.

Donovan McNabb @ NYG
Donovan McNabb threw 3 TDs and connected on 74% of his passes (23 attempts) in the Eagles' first meeting with the Giants in early November. He has thrown at least 1 TD in 7 straight contests. In his last 4 games, Donovan has 6 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 298 passing YPG in that span. The Giants have been stingy in terms of passing yards allowed (199 YPG), but they have allowed 21 TDs through the air, and QB Tony Romo burned them last week for 392 yards and 3 TDs. In his last 3 games against New York, McNabb has thrown 7 TDs with just 1 INT.

Alex Smith vs. ARI
Smith is blossoming in the newly installed spread offense in San Francisco. Much to the chagrin of Frank Gore owners, the 49ers new scheme obviously places much more emphasis on throwing the ball. San Francisco called passes on 21 of the first 24 plays last week in Seattle and Smith promptly threw for a career-high 310 yards. In his last 3 games, Smith has gone from fantasy benchwarmer to a possible starter, as he has 7 TDs and 1 INT in that stretch. The Cardinals rank 30th in pass defense (257.8 YPG) and Smith should continue to find TE Vernon Davis, WRs Michael Crabtree and Josh Morgan and RB Gore in open space.

David Garrard

Is this an "up-week" for Garrard?

David Garrard vs. MIA
With 2 TDs last week against Houston, Garrard is coming off his first multiple passing TD performance since Week 4. He has thrown 5 TD passes while getting picked off once over his last 5 games. The Dolphins pass defense has allowed 242.9 YPG, 24th in the NFL, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been held under 100 yards rushing in 3 straight games. This isn’t to say that MoJo won’t be great this week, but while fighting for a Wild Card spot, the Jags will do what it takes to win; lately the wins have come with Garrard leading the offensive charge. He remains a threat to run the ball and could always pick up a cheap rushing TD.

Bench 'Em:
Quarterbacks Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Carson Palmer @ MIN
Palmer has 2 TD passes and 3 INTs in his last 4 contests and has averaged just 179 passing YPG in that span as Cincinnati continues to lean heavily on their running game. Palmer has been disappointing in consecutive weeks against the paltry pass defenses of the Browns and the Lions. The Vikings have a stingy run defense (ranked 3rd in the NFL), which could create opportunities for Palmer, but he remains very hard to endorse as a fantasy starter. Consider that Carson has thrown multiple TDs in only 3 of his 12 starts this season.

Brett Favre vs. CIN
After throwing 12 TDs and 0 INTs in November, a bit of Favre’s magic wore off last week in Arizona as he was picked off twice and sacked 3 times in the loss to the Cardinals. He should bounce back this week, but he faces a tough Bengals defense that has allowed an average of 211.5 passing YPG this season. The Bengals are 1 of 7 NFL teams who have intercepted more passes (14) than passing TDs allowed (13). Brett has not had consecutive ‘bad’ games this season

Chad Henne @ JAX
Henne was impressive last week against the floundering secondary of the Patriots as he set career highs in completions (29), attempts (52) and passing yards (335). Prior to that, he had not thrown for more than 175 yards in 3 consecutive weeks. I am wary of him producing another big game this week for the run-heavy Dolphins. In fairness to Henne, he has thrown TD passes in 4 straight games, but has 5 TDs and 4 INTs in that span. His completion percentage leaves something to be desired, and without a true #1 receiver, Henne has a way to go before being deployed in fantasy lineups.

Matt Ryan vs. NO
Ryan has not yet been ruled out for this week’s game against the Saints, but even if active, he should be ruled out of your lineup. After a several shaky weeks, the second-year signal caller was sharp 2 weeks ago against the Giants, but it is anyone’s guess how he will play with a lingering turf-toe injury that normally takes several weeks to heal. Furthermore, the Saints pass defense has been very good – picking off 23 passes and allowing just 12 aerial scores through 12 games.

Running Backs