QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP QB13)

For his first five years as a starter, Mahomes was lethal, averaging 4,791 yards, 38 TDs, and 10 INTs. Those numbers dipped a bit in 2023 and 2024 -- 4,056 yards, 27 TDs, 13 INTs -- before slipping even further last year, a season which ended Dec. 14 due to a torn ACL. Now, Mahomes, whose ADP was as QB6 before 2025 drafts, finds himself outside of the top 10.

On one hand, it's understandable. Mahomes is coming off a devastating injury. His numbers have been trending the wrong way for the past few years. Allow me to retort. Mahomes sat out Week 17 in both 2023 and 2024. Extrapolate what he did across two extra games, and the average for those two years jump to 4,309 yards and 29 TDs; both of those would've ranked in the top five last season. He's also run for more than 300 yards in six straight seasons.

Granted, Mahomes may not run as much coming off injury, but a healthy top three of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Tyquan Thornton is as talented as he's had since Tyreek Hill was traded. The return of Eric Bieniemy after a three-year absence should help as well. Even more than any of that, though, is this: the best players relish the opportunity to silence their doubters. This is Mahomes' chance to do just that. Give me a pissed-off Mahomes over guys like Trevor Lawrence (QB11) and Jaxson Dart (QB10) every day of the week.

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (ADP QB19)

Prior to the team's late-season collapse, Love was considered a contender for MVP honors (ESPN's Bill Barnwell ranked him third behind only Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye). His numbers haven't been great the past two years, averaging 3,385 yards and 24 TDs while doing little with his legs. So, why are things going to be different this year? Let's call it a more focused receiver room.

Under head coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers have consistently rotated their wideouts. Expect to see far less of that in 2026. Gone are Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, giving the Packers a defined top three of Matthew Golden, Christian Watson, and Jayden Reed. That trio is made up entirely of first- and second-round picks. Tucker Kraft looked like an ascending superstar before tearing his ACL as well.

Green Bay has also ridden the running game hard to mediocre results in recent years, and LaFleur said recently that he was going to let Love "cook" in 2026. While I'd take that with a grain of salt, advanced metrics suggest Love plays at an elite level. The numbers haven't borne that out, yet, but I'd rather take a chance on his upside than some of the quarterbacks going ahead of him like Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, and perhaps even Brock Purdy, who is saddled with aging weapons.

RB Jadarian Price, Seattle Seahawks (ADP RB27)

A year ago, the combination of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet (knee) combined for 456 touches, 2,183 yards, and 17 touchdowns. Now, Walker is in Kansas City, and Charbonnet is working his way back from a torn ACL suffered during Seattle's playoff run. While there's no firm timetable for Charbonnet to return, odds are he'll miss a significant portion of the regular season.

Into that void steps Price, the second running back selected in this year's draft. He has an ideal mix of size and speed, and he should be fresh after working behind Jeremiyah Love at Notre Dame. Seattle also has holdover George Holani, who profiles as more of a third-down back, and newcomer Emanuel Wilson, who ran for 496 yards with the Packers in 2025. Those aren't exactly impact players. As long as Price stays away from critical mistakes -- he had some issues with ball security in college -- he should be in line for a significant workload as a rookie. That could push him into the top 20.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP RB38)

Gainwell's move from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh before last season didn't garner much interest, but the Memphis product became a central piece of the Steelers' offense as part of a backfield tandem with Jaylen Warren. That earned him a two-year, $14 million deal to join the Bucs. He'll be stepping into the spot previously filled by Rachaad White, who was allowed to leave in free agency. A year ago, White turned 172 touches into 790 yards and 4 TDs; for comparison, Gainwell tallied 187 touches, including 73 receptions, for 1,023 yards and 8 TDs.

With Mike Evans joining White in leaving the Sunshine State, there should be opportunities for Gainwell to become an important cog in both the running and passing attacks. Although Bucky Irving remains the lead back, he's coming off a down year -- most remember he missed time due to injury, but he struggled as a runner even before getting hurt, averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry just twice in 10 appearances. Gainwell is a very attractive flex option that could finish above his RB38 draft slot in terms of fantasy points.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP WR35)

Rewind the clock 12 months. At that point, Thomas was coming off a monster rookie year (87 catches, 1,282 yards, 10 touchdowns) and carried huge expectations. This was reflected by him being the eighth receiver taken in 2025 fantasy drafts. Things did not go according to plan. Thomas picked up a wrist injury in Week 1 that lingered for the duration of the season, dealt with drops, and eventually suffered ankle and shoulder injuries that limited him to 14 games. Along the way, the Jags acquired Jakobi Meyers, and Parker Washington emerged as Trevor Lawrence's top target.

Now, Thomas is a fantasy pariah, falling from WR8 to WR35 by ADP. It all feels a little too overreactive. Washington closed strong, but it's a small sample size, and he doesn't have Thomas' size. Meyers is more of a possession receiver. Reports out of camp about Thomas' maturity and dedication suggest he took last year's struggles to heart and is determined to get back to the Pro Bowl level he showed during his inaugural season. Given his ceiling, I'd rather roll the dice on Thomas than several "safer" veterans as my No. 3 receiver.

WR Matthew Golden, Green Bay Packers (ADP WR50)

It would be overly harsh to call Green Bay's receiver room overhaul addition by subtraction, but after allowing Romeo Doubs, a fourth-round pick in 2022, to leave in free agency, and trading Dontayvion Wicks, a fifth-rounder in 2023, the Packers have a clear vision for their receiver room. To that end, they extended Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, both former second-round selections, and are ready to elevate last year's first-round pick, Golden, into a featured role.

Like Watson, Golden has excellent speed, but he's stepping into the spot filled by Doubs in 2025. Doubs comfortably led the team in targets with 85 a season ago, and plugging Golden's athleticism into a high-volume spot should make Green Bay's passing game more dynamic. The second-year pro had his moments as a rookie, and his season ended on a high note with a 4-84-1 effort in the playoffs. The team's history is filled with receivers that blew up after quiet rookie years, and Golden is well positioned to become the latest one. He's currently going more than 20 spots later than Watson (WR29), but I like Golden to be the breakout member of this group.

TE Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (ADP TE8)

It's easy to glance at LaPorta's production the last two seasons and see the downturn. He posted an 86-889-10 line as a rookie. In 2024, that dipped to 60-726-7. Last year, it was 40-489-3. Of course, a back injury ended his season after nine games. His 17-game pace: 75 receptions, 924 yards, 6 TDs. Those would have been solid numbers. LaPorta should be fully healthy now after undergoing surgery to correct a herniated disc.

That's good news, but it might pale in comparison to the hiring of Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator, replacing the one-and-done OC John Morton. Petzing spent the last three seasons in Arizona where he oversaw the development of Trey McBride into a superstar, and he did it with guys like Jacoby Brissett and Josh Dobbs slinging the ball around. Granted, the Lions have more mouths to feed on offense, but I like LaPorta as a potential top 5 or even top 3 guy.

TE Isaiah Likely, New York Giants (ADP TE13)

During his four seasons with the Ravens, Likely averaged 34 receptions, 392 yards, and 4 TDs. Numbers like that don't endear you to fantasy owners. It's always felt like he was this close to becoming more, however, flashing performances like his 9-111-1 effort in the season opener in Kansas City back in 2024. Ultimately, Likely could never lock down a consistent role in Baltimore's passing attack, operating in the shadow of Mark Andrews during his time there.

He faces no such obstacles in New York. Sure, Theo Johnson was solid last year (45-528-5), but the G-Men didn't hand Likely a $40 million deal in free agency to be a backup. The departure of Wan'Dale Robinson, who led the team in targets (140) a season ago, further opens things up for Likely to step into the No. 2 role behind Malik Nabers on the receiving front. Head coach John Harbaugh knows Likely from their time together in Charm City. He chose to target him in free agency. This smells like a breakout year for Likely, who is currently being drafted behind players like Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Dallas Goedert, none of whom offer as high of a ceiling.