QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (ADP QB7)

Williams is a case where I think the fact that he had a pair of remarkable passes during the playoffs has completely skewed people's memories as to how he performed in 2025. Just look at the postseason. Yes, he led a memorable comeback against the Packers in the Wild Card round. He also completed 52.2 percent of his passes and threw five interceptions -- for comparison, C.J. Stroud, who everyone is down on, connected on 51.9 percent of his throws and tossed five picks. Accuracy was an issue throughout the 2025 campaign as well, as Williams was dead last (58.1 percent) among regular starters; Cam Ward was the only other full-time QB1 to complete less than 60 percent of his throws.

He's dealing with a very young collection of weapons, too. With D.J. Moore gone, we're largely projecting big things from the group of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Colston Loveland, none of whom have tallied 750 yards in a season. There's plenty to like about Williams, who is exceptionally elusive in the pocket and has the arm talent to make any throw, but him going before proven commodities like Dak Prescott or even Justin Herbert feels overly aggressive. While I'd be open to rostering Williams as a fringe starter, I'd want a quality backup to pair him with to hedge my bets. At QB7, you should be acquiring a more reliable weekly option.

QB Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings (ADP QB17)

While the intrigue and excitement around Williams at least makes some sense, I do not understand how people are talking themselves into Murray as anything more than a late-round curiosity. A year ago, Murray started five games. He averaged 192 yards passing, 35 yards rushing, and 1.4 total TDs per outing. In 2024, he started all 17 games. He averaged 227 yards passing, 34 yards rushing, and 1.5 total TDs per game. Last year, Arizona's offense clearly operated better with Jacoby Brissett under center. Think about that. The Cardinals preferred a journeyman to the former No. 1 overall pick.

Now, he's signed with the Vikings. What changed? Is the combo of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hockenson that much better than Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Michael Wilson? Even taking into account what Kevin O'Connell has done with retread quarterbacks, Murray isn't cut from the same cloth as a Kirk Cousins or a Sam Darnold. He's undersized, he needs to move around, and he's had all kinds of difficulty staying healthy over his seven years in the NFL. By all accounts, Murray has not stood out in camp, either, and it was more of becoming the starter by default.

Which brings us to the J.J. McCarthy factor. It's hard to make a case that the Vikings are anything other than the worst team in the NFC North, so when they fall out of contention, it feels like they could give McCarthy another look before they're forced to make a call on his fifth-year option. If you have a top guy entrenched as your QB1, maybe Murray makes sense as a late-round flier. In any other scenario, I'd rather have most of the quarterbacks being drafted in the QB18-QB25 range.

RB Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP RB6)

This is another case of “did we watch football last season?” A year ago, Jeanty's ADP was RB6. His final numbers: 321 touches, 1,321 yards, 10 TDs. By average, the rookie finished as RB16. Not bad. Go back and look at the actual season, though, and a disproportionate amount of those numbers came in two games with 155 yards and 3 TDs against Chicago and 188 yards and 2 TDs versus Houston. Without those, Jeanty's per-game average drops to RB27.

His path to value in 2025 was a threadbare offense where he'd be the featured weapon. Now, his path to value is as part of a threadbare offense where he'll be the featured weapon. Ask yourself these questions: is Kirk Cousins or an inexperienced Fernando Mendoza better than Geno Smith? Do the Raiders have enough talent at receiver to keep defenses from stacking the box? Did hiring an OC coming from a Seahawks team that utilized a two-back approach with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet make it more or less likely that Jeanty will continue receiving a massive share of the backfield work?

I do think Jeanty will be more productive in 2026, in large because Klint Kubiak's scheme is a better fit for the Boise State product's style of running. Still, Mike Washington Jr. should be more involved than Raheem Mostert ever was, and I'm far from convinced Jeanty is going to end up in the top 10.

RB Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals (ADP RB15)

In many ways, Love is stepping into a similar situation to Jeanty circa 2025. He's a high draft pick going to a team with low expectations and questions at quarterback. On the plus side, the Cardinals offer more talent at the skill positions than the Raiders did, and Jacoby Brissett is coming off a strong year. That should help prevent teams from loading up to stop the run. On the downside, Arizona has viable options in the running back room with Tyler Allgeier coming over in free agency, and James Conner reworking his contract to remain with the club.

With Allgeier on the roster, the tempting comparison would be Bijan Robinson. As a rookie, he was drafted as RB3, behind Christian McCaffrey and, in a reminder of how quickly things change, Austin Ekeler. He finished that year with 1,463 yards and eight touchdowns, good enough for RB18 on a per-week basis and RB11 overall. The Cardinals aren't going anywhere this year. They have a pair of experienced backs. Are they really going to run their prized rookie, who is already dealing with a high ankle sprain, into the ground? I have serious doubts. Love isn't being overdrafted to the level that Robinson was, but guys like Breece Hall and Javonte Williams feel like better choices.

WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (ADP WR7)

From a talent standpoint, Jefferson is bulletproof. We saw definitively last year, however, that he can't pass the ball to himself. In four previous full seasons, Jefferson averaged 107 receptions, 1,590 yards, and 9 TDs. In 2025, he posted an 84-1,048-2 line -- even worse, much of that (34 catches for 477 yards) came in five games started by Carson Wentz. With J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer, it was a consistent struggle; don't forget, it took a 101-yard effort against Green Bay's reserves in Week 18 to break the 1,000-yard mark for the season.

The Vikings went out and got Kyler Murray in the offseason, and he's been named the starter, but is he really the answer? During his seven years in Arizona, Murray was the primary quarterback for exactly one 1,000-yard receiver with DeAndre Hopkins racking up 1,407 yards in 2020. I've already touched on my concerns relating to Murray above, but one worth revisiting is that the Vikings have nothing invested in Murray beyond 2026. If he's playing middling ball, and Minnesota is stuck in the NFC North cellar, why wouldn't the team give McCarthy another crack at job?

It's also worth mentioning that replacing Jalen Nailor with Jauan Jennings could create more competition for targets. Nailor was the clear WR3 whose primary role was to get downfield. Jennings is a physical chain mover who averaged 102 targets per year over his last two seasons in San Francisco. When you're talking about likely needing a second-round pick to acquire Jefferson, that's a lot of red flags to ignore.

WR Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (ADP WR21)

Willams' numbers have gone up each year since entering the NFL with his 65-1,117-7 line in 2025 setting or matching career highs across the board. At 25, he's entering his prime, and the Lions have one of the NFL's most explosive offenses. So, what's the problem? They missed the playoffs a season ago while logging the fewest rushing attempts since Dan Campbell's first year. Look for Detroit to recommit to their more physical identity of previous years in an effort to get back to the success they enjoyed in 2023 and 2024.

The hiring of new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing also has some double-edged sword potential based on his work with the Cardinals, specifically Trey McBride. Remember that Williams' best year just came with Sam LaPorta limited to nine games due to injury. A fully healthy LaPorta likely steps into the No. 3 role on offense behind Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions would surely like to get more out of 2025 third-round pick Isaac TeSlaa as well. Plus, Williams has yet to find consistency from week to week. Even during his career year, Williams finished with under 50 yards seven times. You'd like your WR2 to be more reliable than that.

TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns (ADP TE6)

By any reasonable measure, Fannin exceeded expectations last season. The then-rookie led the Browns in targets (107), receptions (72), receiving yards (731), and touchdowns (7). That was good enough to finish as TE8 in terms of average fantasy points per game, and the fact that he did it with a rotating set of uninspiring quarterbacking options is even more impressive. Fannin's ascent made David Njoku expendable, and the veteran will be lining up for the Chargers in 2026.

As much as I like Fannin, however, him as TE6 feels bold. The Browns continue to have uncertainty at quarterback with Deshaun Watson, who has played in 19 games over the last five seasons combined (including zero last year), and Shedeur Sanders, who was uneven at best in Year 1. There were changes made to the coaching staff as well with Todd Monken taking over as head coach and former Ravens running game coordinator Travis Switzer now the new OC. Cleveland also made a substantial investment at the receiver position in the draft, using first- and second-round picks to add KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, respectively. Between the additions at wideout and uncertainty at the top, Fannin feels a bit risky at his current slot.

TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP TE9)

With Philadelphia's passing game mired in a season-long slump, Goedert emerged as their most reliable red-zone target, catching 11 of Jalen Hurts' 25 touchdown passes in 2025. Only Davante Adams (14) had more receiving scores. It was enough to help elevate Goedert to TE6 in fantasy points per game, but the rest of his numbers were middling at best: 60 receptions (tied for 44th in the NFL), 591 yards (64th), and a career-low 9.9 yards per catch.

The Eagles overhauled their receiver room during the offseason, trading away A.J. Brown, drafting Makai Lemon, trading for Dontayvion Wicks, and signing Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore. They also hired Sean Mannion as their new offensive coordinator. It's hard to say that any of that benefits Goedert, who is entering his ninth year in the NFL and never had anywhere near the level of success in the red zone that he enjoyed last year -- his previous career high for touchdowns in a season was five, and he hadn't topped three since 2019. The 31-year-old is being inflated by that success. His ceiling is modest, and him being drafted ahead of George Kittle (TE11) is borderline insanity.