Remember that six-game stretch in 2021 when the league had figured
out how to stop Mahomes and the Chiefs offense? Ah, good times,
good times. Whatever led to that brief lull in production, it’s
safe to say it wasn’t sustainable for defenses after Mahomes
comfortably led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns
(41) last year en route to a second MVP award and second Super
Bowl triumph. All this despite the team trading away star wideout
Tyreek Hill before the season.
Entering his age-28 season, Mahomes should be at the height of
his powers, and given that head coach Andy Reid calls the plays,
the departure of longtime offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy should
have limited impact. He’ll also lose his No. 1 receiver
for a second straight year, as JuJu Smith-Schuster signed in New
England, but if he can excel minus Hill, there’s no reason
think he can’t do it here.
While Mahomes isn’t an elite runner, he’s topped 300 yards each
of the last three seasons, so it’s not a hindrance the way it
could be with some of the other top throwers that prefer not to
take off (e.g., Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert).
You could maybe convince yourself that Jalen Hurts deserves to
be the first quarterback selected, but Mahomes is a much safer
choice given his track record and sustainable style of play. For
our money, Mahomes is the overall QB1.
At this time last year, Pacheco was an afterthought, an unheralded
seventh-round pick seemingly buried on the depth chart. The then-rookie
ran hard every time he was given the chance, however, and he eventually
took over as the primary back on early downs. Despite entering
the month of November with just 39 carries, Pacheco would end
up leading the club in rushing attempts (170), yards (830), and
touchdowns (5). He added another 197 yards in the playoffs and
heads into 2023 with a strong grip on the top job.
Where things unravel a bit for Pacheco in terms of fantasy value
is his lack of involvement in the passing game on a team that
finished fifth in the NFL in attempts (651) last year. He had
one encouraging effort in the playoffs (five catches for 59 yards
in the AFC Championship Game) but otherwise managed just 14 receptions
in his other 19 games. As long as he remains primarily an early-down
back, his upside will be capped. Consider Pacheco a strong RB3
with the possibility for more.
After missing two entire seasons due to injury, McKinnon has
played in all but four games over the past three years combined.
His usage remained low in 2021 when he logged a combined 25 touches,
but last season it jumped to 128: that broke down to 72 carries
for 291 yards, and 56 receptions for 512 yards. While the 803
total yards were nice, it was the 10 touchdowns that was a real
eye opener with nine of them coming as a receiver -- that was
good enough to tie for sixth in the NFL, and it was nearly double
the next-highest running back (Aaron Jones, Christian McCaffrey,
and Austin Ekeler each had five).
At 31, McKinnon is long in the tooth for the position, but Reid
values his veteran savvy, and Mahomes clearly trusts him as a
valuable piece of the passing game. Expect McKinnon to reprise
his role as the primary receiving back, which should afford him
fringe top-50 value. If he was your No. 5 back, you’d have
assembled good depth for your squad.
Kansas City used a first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire in 2020.
In three years with the club, the LSU product has averaged 541
yards rushing, 193 yards receiving, and 5.7 combined TDs. He’s
also missed 17 of 50 games, including back-to-back years of appearing
in just 10. Given his struggles to stay healthy and declining
production, it should come as no surprise that the Chiefs elected
not to pick up his fifth-year option, setting up CEH for free
agency after the season.
The days of drafting Edwards-Helaire outside the deepest of leagues
are over. While there’s always some degree of upside for
a player of CEH’s talent, his uncertain role and durability
concerns make him no more than a watch-list candidate.
Kansas City gave Valdes-Scanting a three-year, $30 million deal
to leave Green Bay before last season, but if they were hoping
to unlock heretofore unseen production, they had to be disappointed.
After averaging 31 receptions, 538 yards, and 3.3 TDs with the
Packers, MVS posted a marginally better 42-687-2 line during his
first season catching balls from Mahomes.
With his blend of size (6-foot-4, 206 pounds) and speed, there’s
always a chance Valdes-Scantling will breakthrough -- his 17.2
yards-per-catch average is no fluke. With each passing season
it seems less and less likely, though, as MVS will turn 29 in
October and has yet to top 700 yards in any of his five seasons
to date. Maybe you can talk yourself into Valdes-Scantling as
a final-round flier, but that’s about it.
The departure of Smith-Schuster should open a larger role for
Moore, who finished fourth in snaps among the wideouts as a rookie,
logging 313, which trailed MVS (777), Smith-Schuster (765), and
Justin Watson (494), who was re-signed but seems more like an
insurance policy. Moore was selected in the second-round last
year on the strength of his deep speed and route running. It didn’t
translate into much as a rookie with just 250 yards and 22 receptions,
but he was the receiver the Chiefs targeted immediately after
Hill was moved, and you can bet they expect more in 2023.
There are a lot of unknowns at the position now that Smith-Schuster
and, to a lesser extent, Mecole Hardman are gone. Still, of the
current group, you could make a strong case that Moore has the
most potential to make a leap. He has high-end talent, has spent
a full year in the system, and doesn’t carry the durability red
flags that Kadarius Toney does. Consider Moore for a spot as your
WR5 that could ascend to WR3 status, if not more.
A first-round pick of the Giants in 2021, Toney wore out his
welcome in the Big Apple midway through his second season, and
the G-Men dealt him to KC for third- and sixth-round picks. Toney
flashed in seven games with the Chiefs, but as has been the case
in his brief NFL career, he battled injuries and missed time.
In two seasons, the former Gator has played in 19 of 34 possible
games. To realize his considerable potential, he’ll need
to find a way to stay on the field.
If you’ve listened to the front office and coaching staff
during the offseason, it’s clear they think highly of Toney’s
talent and fit in the offense; specifically, they believe his
ability to work downfield will be a great fit for Mahomes. There’s
obviously a ton of opportunity in Kansas City this season, and
Reid has identified Moore and Toney as being ticketed for increased
roles. Again, though, Toney needs to prove he can handle the rigors
of a full season. Until then, he’ll be a low-floor, high-ceiling
lottery ticket best drafted in the final rounds.
If anyone thought the loss of Hill would allow defenses to key
on Kelce and slow him down, they were grievously mistaken. Kelce
set career highs in receptions (110), targets (152), and touchdowns
(12) while extending his streak of 1,000-plus-yard seasons to
seven with a 1,338-yard effort. It was elite stuff from the NFL’s
preeminent tight end, though incredibly it’s what we’ve
come to expect even as the veteran enters his age-34 season.
A year ago, it felt like Mark Andrews and maybe even Kyle Pitts
was poised to challenge Kelce for TE1 honors. Now, it’s
hard to make a compelling case for another tight end to be drafted
within a round or two of Kelce, who is the gold standard until
proven otherwise.
