Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Injury notes, Lines and Totals updated Sunday morning
Steelers @ Browns
- (Green)
Line: PIT -2.5
Total: 38.5

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
No Brainers: RB Jaylen Warren
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: WR DK Metcalf
A year ago, Metcalf stumbled through an uneventful first three
weeks before breaking out with 126 yards and a touchdown in Week
4. To date in 2026, he has 11 receptions, 98 yards, and one score.
That’s not good enough for a No. 1 receiver, and Metcalf
isn’t the type of player you want checking out mentally.
Thursday night represents a good opportunity to get going. The
Browns rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to receivers, and that
includes five touchdown receptions. In his only encounter with
Cleveland a season ago, Metcalf posted a 4-95-1 line. Despite
his slow start, Metcalf offers enough upside to warrant a spot
in your lineup as a WR3/flex.
Fades: QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers looked much better in Week 3, passing for 292 yards and
three TDs. That doesn’t wash away the two stinkers he had
to open the season, and his two games against the Browns last
year don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Granted, Myles Garrett
was still around to create havoc, but averaging 202 yards and
1 TD is poor production regardless of circumstance. I also worry
about a 42-year-old quarterback physically bouncing back for a
Thursday night game against a division rival. I would stay well
away from Rodgers this week.

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
No Brainers: RB Quinshon
Judkins
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: TE Harold
Fannin Jr.
Fannin did little over the first two weeks, totaling 75 yards
on seven catches, but he showed some chemistry with Deshaun Watson
in Week 3, scoring both of Cleveland’s touchdowns in a win over
Carolina. Given how shallow the tight end pool has been to open
2026, he probably deserves a spot in your starting lineup. That
said, the Steelers boast a top-10 defense versus tight ends, allowing
3.3 catches for 40 yards total to the position through three games.
Fannin did have some success against Pittsburgh last season, amassing
nine catches for 111 yards and a TD in two meetings, albeit with
a different quarterback at the helm. He’s a bit of a risk/reward
play.
Fades: QB Deshaun
Watson
With the Browns winning back-to-back games, Watson seems to have
tightened his grip on the starting job, at least for now. His
numbers, though, have been middling. In the two wins, the veteran
averaged 191 yards passing, 34 yards rushing, and 2 TDs. Prior
to that, Watson oversaw a blowout loss to Jacksonville, which
ranks just one spot ahead of the Steelers in fantasy points allowed
to opposing quarterbacks. While we might be approaching a world
where Watson could offer matchup-specific value, trusting him
against a top-five group would not be advisable.
Prediction: Steelers 16, Browns 13 ^
Top
Colts @ Commanders
(London) - (Caron)
Line: IND -4.5
Total: 46.5

WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
No Brainers: N/A
Update: WR Keenan
Allen has been ruled Out.
Favorites: WR Josh Downs, TE Tyler Warren
The Commanders defense has been a pass funnel early this season.
Washington currently surrenders the absolute most fantasy points
per game in the NFL to opposing wide receivers. This creates a
huge opportunity for Josh Downs to deliver a breakout performance,
with Alec Pierce officially on injured reserve and Keenan Allen
is currently banged up. Downs is the undisputed focal point of
the Colts' downfield passing attack and because the Commanders
are so vulnerable there, he should have no problem finding open
space and commanding heavy target volume.
Tyler Warren also finds himself in a great spot this week. Washington
gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends,
so fantasy managers should be excited to get Warren into their
lineups to exploit this awful Washington defense.
On the Fence: RB Jonathan Taylor
Benching a premium draft pick like Jonathan Taylor is almost
never the right move in normal leagues, but fantasy managers need
to brace themselves for a frustrating Sunday morning in London.
Washington's defense has been a brick wall against the run and
allows the fewest fantasy points in the league to opposing running
backs.
With the Commanders being so tough to run on, Taylor's
rushing efficiency is capped. Managers may have to rely almost
entirely on his passing game usage and a touchdown to bail them
out of an otherwise mediocre day. You're starting Taylor
because of his pure talent and workload, but you should definitely
temper your expectations in this brutal matchup.
Fades: N/A

IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: QB Marcus Mariota
Despite rumors, Jayden Daniels is highly unlikely to suit up
this week, meaning Marcus Mariota is in line for another start
under center. Mariota performed well in a tough spot last week.
He completed 19 of his 31 pass attempts for 183 yards and three
touchdowns against an excellent Seattle defense in a shocking
26-point output for the Commanders' offense. Fantasy managers
typically identify Mariota as a reliable rusher without much passing
upside, but he didn't run much this past week or when he stepped
in midway through the game for Daniels in Week 2. Through his
two appearances, Mariota has compiled a grand total of six carries
for just 14 yards.
His rushing floor is basically gone right now, but he still possesses
an interesting ceiling when he does take off and run, and last
week showed us that he has the ability to air the ball out against
an Indianapolis defense that presents a very advantageous matchup.
The Colts are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks. Mariota comes with obvious risk, but
he's a real streaming option for managers who are in a tough spot.
Update: RB Rachaad
White has been ruled Out.
On the Fence: RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt
While the Washington quarterback room is getting most of the
attention, their backfield could also see a significant shift
here in Week 4. Rachaad White (shoulder) missed Thursday's practice
and is trending toward sitting out. His absence would clear the
runway for Jacory Croskey-Merritt to see a big bump in playing
time. Either way, he gets to face a soft Indianapolis defensive
front that currently surrenders the sixth-most fantasy points
to opposing running backs.
Croskey-Merritt has not been involved in the passing game much
throughout his career, so his fantasy value this week lies in
rushing volume and the potential for a score near the goal line.
White capitalized on a short six-yard receiving touchdown last
week, and those high-value opportunities close to the end zone
will now fall onto Croskey-Merritt's plate. Rookie Kaytron Allen
will likely mix in to spell him for a handful of touches, but
this might be Croskey-Merrit's best chance this season to deliver
a big fantasy day.
Update: WR Terry
McLaurin has been ruled Out.
Fades: WR Stefon Diggs
When an offense scores 26 points in a game, you generally expect
its top wide receivers to come up with big numbers. While Terry
McLaurin (hamstring) came through, his teammate Stefon Diggs was
largely left out of the fun last week with Marcus Mariota under
center. He drew just seven targets and produced a paltry four
catches for 33 yards. The sample size is small, but the immediate
distribution of targets under Mariota is definitely concerning
for Diggs.
Diggs is a secondary option whose passing volume is completely
unknown from week to week. Even in an advantageous matchup against
a Colts secondary allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to wideouts,
he's someone you want to leave on your bench. He can be
started in a pinch, but his floor is incredibly shaky right now.
Prediction: Colts 24, Commanders 23 ^
Top
Cardinals @ Giants
- (Caron)
Line: ARI -2.5
Total: 44.5

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
No Brainers: TE Trey McBride
Favorites: RB Jeremiyah Love
Jeremiyah Love finally got things rolling this past week against
San Francisco. The highly touted rookie turned 26 total touches
into 109 yards and a receiving touchdown, posting his first 20-point
fantasy outing against a good 49ers defense on the road. This
proves the Cardinals are ready to lean heavily on him as their
primary offensive playmaker out of the backfield. Arizona had
been rotating the backfield earlier in the year but completely
shifted away from that split against San Francisco as Tyler Allgeier
saw just two carries and was significantly less involved on the
ground despite catching four passes.
The Cardinals came incredibly close to pulling off a massive
upset with Love leading the offensive attack. You can expect them
to stick with what worked and feed him against a Giants defense
surrendering the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs.
On the Fence: WR Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson steps up as an intriguing flex option this week.
The Giants offer a very soft secondary matchup by giving up the
10th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. With the
rest of the receiving corps struggling to command the ball, Wilson
exploded with a ridiculous 17-target game against the 49ers this
past week, solidifying himself as the superior fantasy option
between him and teammate Marvin Harrison. Wilson is back in another
prime spot to soak up targets in the passing game this week. The
only real worry is that his low yards per reception numbers may
come back to bite fantasy managers if this ends up being a more
normal target day.
Fades: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harrison continues to be a massive disappointment for fantasy
managers. He actually posted his best game of the season last
week but still managed just three catches for 40 yards on a mere
five targets. The raw efficiency is certainly there as he's
turned four total catches on the year into 73 yards, but hoping
for him to sustain that huge yards-per-reception average while
also increasing his volume to a usable number is a dangerous bet.
He simply is not seeing the necessary targets in the passing game
to remain a viable fantasy starter right now. You have to leave
him on your bench until his target share dramatically improves.

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: RB Cam Skattebo
Cam Skattebo has taken full control of the New York backfield
as his snap share jumped to a season-high 77% in Week 3. More
importantly, Devin Singletary did not play a single offensive
snap against Tennessee, while Najee Harris was limited to 14 snaps
(albeit resulting in nine carries). Skattebo's efficiency was
mediocre as he turned his 23 touches into just 100 scrimmage yards,
but he did catch four targets for the second consecutive week,
proving his value passing downs. The Giants have leaned heavier
into the run with Jameis Winston starting so while Arizona represents
a stiffer test on the ground, sitting 23rd in fantasy points allowed
to running backs, pure volume can win in this situation. Lock
him in as a high-floor RB2 with RB1 upside.
On the Fence: WR Malik Nabers
Malik Nabers is stuck in fantasy purgatory with Jaxson Dart sidelined.
His playing time is not the issue as he continues to log plenty
of snaps. It's just that the target quality and offensive efficiency
have vanished under Jameis Winston. Nabers has drawn just 10 targets
across the past two games, converting them into six catches for
a measly 27 yards and no scores.
Normal fantasy starters with that kind of output belong on the
bench, but the matchup keeps Nabers in starting conversations.
Arizona allows the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
New York should eventually scheme looks for their top weapon as
Nabers has game-breaking talent, but it's tough to know
whether they'll start doing that or keep ramming their heads
into a brick wall instead. Benching him is tough, but if you start
him you have to accept that there's almost no floor here.
Fades: TE Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely is trending in the wrong direction for fantasy
lineups. He looked like an early-season breakout stud after a
huge Week 1 showing against Dallas and a 10-target outing in Week
2. Week 3 revealed severe volume concerns once Jameis Winston
took over for a full contest. Likely managed only two catches
for 13 yards on five targets. New York ran the ball on over 50%
of plays this past week. Arizona is generous to tight ends, but
don't fall for the trap. A low-volume passing game caps Likely
to touchdown-or-bust territory. Bench him until this offense opens
up.
Prediction: Giants 23, Cardinals 20 ^
Top
Patriots @ Bills
- (Caron)
Line: BUF -7.0
Total: 49.5

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: QB Drake Maye
Maye was a true breakout fantasy superstar last season, which
makes it difficult to completely give up on his ceiling this early
in the year. He's also facing a very favorable matchup against
a Buffalo defense that has really struggled to defend against
opposing quarterbacks. The game environment could force a pass-heavy
script since the Patriots are 6.5-point underdogs, but Maye's
underlying metrics raise major red flags. Maye's turnover
rate is absolutely crippling his floor and his lack of rushing
hasn't been able to bail him out. Start him only if you
believe his inherent talent and the generous defensive matchup
can outweigh his disastrous early-season decision-making.
Fades: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, RB TreVeyon Henderson
This New England backfield has devolved into an inefficient,
evenly split nightmare for fantasy managers. Stevenson turned
seven carries into an ugly 22 rushing yards this past Sunday and
he has now failed to reach 3.5 yards per carry in two of his first
three games this season. Henderson wasn't any better as
he gained just 23 yards on eight carries, completely erasing the
momentum from his solid Week 2 debut.
Neither back is commanding enough volume to overcome the pathetic
state of the New England offense. New England are scoring on a
league-low 23 percent of their drives and Buffalo has been significantly
better against the run than the pass. Avoid both Patriots running
backs until one seizes the primary role or the offensive line
steps up.

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
No Brainers: QB Josh Allen
Favorites: RB James Cook
Buffalo enters Week 4 as a heavy home favorite against an opponent
that's been pathetic on offense themselves. New England has regularly
given extra possessions to opposing offenses, turning the ball
over repeatedly through the first three weeks of the season. That
sets up an ideal game script for Buffalo to control the clock
on the ground through running back James Cook.
Cook has dominated backfield snaps, staying on the field for
roughly seventy percent of plays while staying efficient at an
impressive six yards per attempt. He already has 346 rushing yards
through three weeks, so there's plenty of reason to expect
a heavy volume again. New England has a respectable front, but
Cook has the explosive playmaking ability and guaranteed workload
to be viewed as a solid RB1 this week.
On the Fence: WR D.J. Moore
Moore leads Buffalo wideouts with 18 targets, despite missing
almost all of Week 2's contest. Normally that alone would
make him a must-start for fantasy, but New England gives up very
little through the air. They've given up just 377 yards
to wide receivers through three contests and there's a chance
that Buffalo builds an early lead in this one which could mean
that passing volume dries up quickly in the second half. Moore
has the individual talent to score anytime he touches the ball,
but the nagging injuries and tough matchup against a highly talented
group of corners creates a volatile fantasy situation.
Fades: TE Dalton Kincaid
It's tough to stomach benching a tight end who has 263 receiving
yards over three games, but this might be the time to do it. Dalton
Kincaid gets tough match up this week against New England who
has been one of the stingiest defenses in football against tight
ends, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
They play physical coverage over the middle and surrender almost
nothing after the catch while blitzing at a very high rate which
causes tight ends to block more often than usual and run shorter
routes as well. With Buffalo expected to lean on the ground game
to protect Allen's sore knee, passing volume is not guaranteed.
You might not have another great option that allows you to sit
Kincaid, but don't count this being a high ceiling performance.
Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 20 ^
Top
Jets @ Bears
- (Green)
Line: CHI -4.0
Total: 43.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
No Brainers: WR Garrett Wilson
Favorites: RB Braelon Allen
As of this writing, it's still unofficial as to whether Breece
Hall (quad) will be available on Sunday. Given that they called
it a week-to-week injury -- not day-to-day -- I am thinking that
Hall will at least miss Week 4. If he recovers quickly, feel free
to disregard this. If not, I like what Allen brings to the table.
The former University of Wisconsin star isn't on Saquon Barkley's
level, but Barkley had good success against the Bears, which have
allowed 133.3 combined yards per game to opposing backs. If Hall
is inactive, most of the backfield touches figure to go to Allen.
He offers good upside as an RB3/flex.
On the Fence: QB Geno Smith / TE Kenyon Sadiq
Ever since getting shredded by Bryce Young in Week 1, Chicago's
defense has locked in and held their last two opponents to 16
points. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off their best offensive
performance of the year with Smith passing for 321 yards and 3
TDs, and Sadiq accounting for a 7-105-1 line. I could see this
going either direction. I'm a bit concerned about a letdown after
Monday night, which could help Smith and company move the ball
this week. At the same time, it's not hard to envision the Jets
trying to play physical to control the clock. I'd be more inclined
the roll the dice on Sadiq, but both players have risk/reward
potential.
Fades: N/A

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Update: QB Tyson
Bagent is expected to start.
No Brainers: RB D'Andre Swift (knee)
Favorites: WR Luther Burden III
While Kalif Raymond has surprised as the top receiver, Burden
has been the only one of Chicago's highly touted young playmakers
to perform well over the season's first three weeks. He was critical
in setting the tone for the Bears' Monday night win over the Eagles,
scoring the game's first touchdown and finishing with seven receptions,
68 combined yards, and a score. He's useable on the kind of quick-hitting
routes that Ben Johnson calls to get Case Keenum (or Tyson Bagent)
into rhythm. Burden belongs in your lineup as a WR3.
On the Fence: RB Kyle Monangai
Monday night was an emotional win. In Week 5, the Bears travel
to Lambeau Field to face their biggest rival. In between, they
host the Jets. This is the very definition of a trap game, and
it makes me wonder if a more physical approach will be on tap
versus New York -- for as well as Keenum played, he made some
dicey throws that Philly failed to capitalize on. Swift has also
been less effective the past two games after a monster opener,
and the team is playing on short rest. This could be a week where
more is asked of Monangai, who can be used as a flex.
Fades: WRs Rome Odunze / TE Colston Loveland
Odunze and Loveland both had opportunities to score touchdowns
on Monday night. Both failed. For Loveland, he was dragged down
just short of the goal line. For Odunze, he dropped a ball that
most Pop Warner players would've hauled in. It marked the
continuation of a rough start for the former first-round picks.
Through three games, Odunze has an 8-139-0 line, while Loveland
is stuck at 5-34-0. For a couple of players that made numerous
breakout lists, September was a disappointing month. While it's
too early to cut bait on either of them, I'd be hesitant
to have them anywhere but my bench in Week 4.
Prediction: Bears 24, Jets 20 ^
Top
Cowboys @ Texans
- (Woods)
Line: HOU -3.0
Total: 48.5

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
No Brainers: QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, RB Javonte Williams
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: WR George Pickens
The production gap between Pickens and Lamb is bigger than the
opportunity gap. Through three games, they're tied with a 23.8%
target share in an offense throwing more than game situations
would normally dictate.
Houston is the part that makes this uncomfortable. This isn't
the matchup where I'm expecting the underlying usage to suddenly
turn into a ceiling game, but I also don't want to overreact to
three weeks of uneven production when Pickens is getting this
much of the passing game. He's a volatile WR2/WR3 this week. If
you're choosing between Pickens and another receiver with a similar
role in a better matchup, that's where I'd lean away.
Fades: TE Jake Ferguson
The touchdown last week helped, but Ferguson still owns just
a 10.5% target share through three games. That's difficult to
trust when Lamb and Pickens are each commanding nearly a quarter
of Dallas' targets and Ryan Flournoy has been more involved than
Ferguson as well.
I'm not benching Ferguson for every streamer on the wire. Tight
end gets ugly quickly. I'm just treating him as a touchdown-dependent
option rather than assuming last week's score signals something
bigger coming.

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: QB C.J. Stroud, RB David Montgomery
This is the first week I'm willing to go back to Stroud. Houston
has scored only 23 points over its last two games, but those games
came without Nico Collins and starting guard Ed Ingram. Both have
practiced on a limited basis this week, and Dallas comes in 30th
in total defense with only two sacks through three games.
Stroud hasn't given fantasy managers much reason to trust him
yet. That's part of the appeal here. If Collins and Ingram return,
the offense gets two important pieces back at the same time it
draws the best passing matchup it has seen this season. I'm comfortable
using Stroud as a QB1 streamer this week.
The Houston backfield isn't as close as it looked entering the
season. Montgomery out-snapped Woody Marks 33-18 against Indianapolis
and led him 13-6 in touches. He also has seven red-zone carries
and three attempts inside the five through three games.
I'm not calling him a workhorse though as Marks is still involved.
But, Montgomery has been getting the touches we care about most
for fantasy, and Dallas has had problems stopping the run. He's
a solid RB2/Flex this week with more touchdown equity than the
raw backfield split might suggest.
On the Fence: WR Nico Collins (hamstring)
Collins remained limited Thursday after missing the last two
games with a hamstring injury. That's enough progress to make
a return look realistic, but not enough for me to ignore the possibility
of a reduced workload or aggravation.
The matchup is excellent and Collins opened the season with seven
catches for 75 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. If he gets
through Friday cleanly, you're probably starting him. Until then,
I'd keep him here rather than pretending the injury disappears
because Dallas is on the other side.
Fades: TE Dalton Schultz
Schultz's Week 2 target explosion looks more like the exception
than a new role. Houston expanded its use of multiple-tight-end
personnel last week; Foster Moreau became more involved, and Schultz's
opportunity took a step backward.
Now Collins could return and push another meaningful target back
into the offense. Schultz can still score here, especially against
Dallas, but I'm back to viewing him as a touchdown-dependent streamer
rather than a tight end I'm actively trying to get into my lineup.
Prediction: Texans 27, Cowboys 24 ^
Top
Rams @ Eagles
- (Caron)
Line: LAR -3.5
Total: 42.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
No Brainers: WR Davante Adams
Favorites: QB Matthew Stafford
The Rams' passing attack has been finding its rhythm even without
superstar WR Puka Nacua and Matthew Stafford is in an excellent
spot to shred a bad Philadelphia secondary. Los Angeles has thrown
the ball heavily over the past weeks, including a whopping 55
attempts against Denver this past week. That volume should continue
in this matchup as Stafford has had major success against zone
coverages like Philadelphia's so far this season and really throughout
his entire career. The Eagles just got done surrendering a huge
passing day to journeyman Case Keenum this past week. Stafford
is a viable starter with or without Puka.
On the Fence: RB Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams is a dependable player for fantasy managers so
it's totally fine if you don't want to roll the dice on a more
volatile option from your bench, but this specific matchup could
be a difficult one for the Rams' RB.
Philadelphia's impressive defensive interior allows the
sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing backfields this season,
forcing teams to beat them through the air. The Rams themselves
have been fine doing that over the past two weeks, throwing the
ball even more heavily than they normally do.
Williams has still delivered a solid floor, especially due to
his six receptions for 70 yards against Denver this past week,
but he isn't always that involved in the passing game. Add in
the reality that Blake Corum is still active in the rotation,
and this becomes a more risky fantasy situation than normal for
Williams. You're probably not benching him unless you're truly
stacked at RB, but Kyren isn't likely to win you your fantasy
week in this matchup.
Fades: TE Tyler Higbee
Chasing points at tight end is a dangerous game, and trusting
Tyler Higbee this week is a massive trap. The veteran tight end
just delivered an unexpected spike performance, commanding 11
targets and finding the end zone against Denver, but don't expect
a repeat of that this Sunday.
Philadelphia has been a nightmare matchup for the position so
far this season, ranking dead last in fantasy points allowed to
opposing tight ends through three weeks. As he has been throughout
most of his career, Higbee is a low-upside option and you'd
be better off finding a streaming alternative.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
No Brainers: RB Saquon
Barkley
Update: WR DeVonta
Smith has been ruled Out.
Favorites: WR Dontayvion
Wicks
The Injury bug has bitten Philadelphia's offense, opening up
a serious opportunity for Wicks. With DeVonta Smith (hamstring)
likely out and tight end Dallas Goedert still sidelined, the offense
is currently without its top two receiving weapons. Wicks has
already been functioning as a near-every-down player, but now
he has the opportunity to be the first look on more passing plays.
He showed off his explosive ceiling with a long touchdown catch
in Week 1 and then showed that he can be more of a possession
weapon when called upon by catching five passes for 76 yards in
Week 2. He stumbled in Week 3 with just two catches on five targets,
but this will be his first real opportunity to command significant
volume in this Philadelphia offense. He's not a must-start player,
but he's an upside WR2 which could be usable for plenty of managers.
On the Fence: QB Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts remains an every-week starter for most fantasy managers,
but this matchup presents some concerns. Hurts' production has
trended downward so far this season and now he is expected to
be without both DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert against a Rams
defense surrendering only 5.2 yards per pass attempt -- second-best
in the league.
What continues to save Hurts, of course, is his rushing upside
and automatic goal-line usage via the Tush Push. That play alone
often saves him from completely tanking a fantasy lineup even
if he struggles passing.
Fades: N/A
Prediction: Rams 24, Eagles 20 ^
Top
Packers @ Buccaneers
- (Woods)
Line: GB -3.0
Total: 38.5

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
No Brainers: QB Jordan Love, WR Christian Watson
Favorites: WR Matthew Golden, TE Tucker Kraft
Golden's breakout last week wasn't just a touchdown showing up
in the box score.
He ran 44 routes, drew 12 targets and finished with 100 yards.
Through three games, he leads Green Bay with a 24.2% target share
and owns 38.6% of the team's air yards. Christian Watson is producing
more touchdowns, but Golden has quietly developed an alpha-level
opportunity profile right alongside him.
Green Bay has been one of the more pass-heavy offenses in football,
and Tampa Bay enters this game dealing with injuries throughout
its defense. Golden is already past the point where I'm waiting
for another game to prove the role is real. He's a strong WR2
this week.
Kraft hasn't given fantasy managers much yet, but he's still
hanging around the part of the offense that gives him a chance
to fix it.
He owns a 13.7% target share through three games and remains
involved as a receiver despite Green Bay leaning heavily on Watson
and Golden. What hasn't been there is the valuable stuff near
the end zone.
That's obviously a problem, but it's also why the price on Kraft
is so low entering a matchup with Tampa Bay. I'm willing to take
another shot on the role before chasing a tight end who happened
to score last week. He's a low-end TE1 with some bounce-back appeal.
On the Fence: RB Chris Brooks / RB Kaleb Johnson / RB MarShawn Lloyd
I'd rather avoid guessing here. Brooks led the backfield with
26 snaps last week, Johnson had 22 and Lloyd had 15. Johnson and
Lloyd combined for eight carries and 17 yards, and Green Bay's
offensive line is now dealing with multiple injuries.
There isn't enough volume or role certainty to feel good about
any of them. Johnson and Lloyd remain bench holds in deeper formats,
but I'm looking elsewhere for a Week 4 starter.
Fades: N/A

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: RB Bucky Irving, WR Emeka Egbuka
Bucky has been the most stable part of this offense, which matters
quite a bit with Jalon Daniels making his first NFL start.
Irving has 40 carries for 180 yards through three games and is
tied for the team lead with 13 receptions. Tampa now has every
reason to simplify the game around him, whether that's through
the run game or giving Daniels an easy outlet underneath.
The only reason he's here instead of Favorite is the glute injury.
Irving has been limited both Wednesday and Thursday. If he gets
through Friday without a setback, I'm starting him as an RB2.
The volume should still be there for Egbuka but the quality of
it is what worries me.
Egbuka leads Tampa Bay with 141 receiving yards and is tied for
the team lead with 13 catches. Chris Godwin returning to a full
practice Thursday takes away some of the target-consolidation
argument, and Baker Mayfield being out changes the entire passing
environment.
I'm still starting Egbuka in most three-receiver formats, but
the rookie quarterback makes him much harder to trust as anything
more than a WR3.
Fades: WR Chris Godwin
Godwin's ankle improved enough for a full Thursday practice,
so the injury isn't really the argument anymore. Jalon Daniels
is.
Godwin was already fighting for targets in an offense with Egbuka
and Irving heavily involved. Now Tampa is asking an undrafted
rookie to make his first NFL start against Green Bay. Daniels
may eventually be useful, but I'm not betting on enough passing
volume or efficiency to support everybody immediately.
Godwin is a risky WR3/Flex this week. In shallow leagues with
comparable alternatives, I'm sitting him.
Prediction: Packers 24, Buccaneers 17 ^
Top
Titans @ Ravens
- (Green)
Line: BAL -11.5
Total: 42.5

BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
No Brainers: RB Tony Pollard (ankle)
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: WRs Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson
There hasn't been much to like about the Tennessee offense
this season, and that includes the passing game. Tate (6-58-0)
and Robinson (7-57-1) were at least decent this past Sunday, and
I wonder what kind of juice the Ravens will bring into this matchup
after an emotional win in Brazil. While Baltimore has a talented
secondary, they've put up middling numbers, ranking 20th
in fantasy points to opposing wideouts. There should be some opportunities
for the Titans' top wideouts to make plays, though neither
player carries more than flex value into this matchup.
Fades: QB Cam Ward
Unless your league awards bonus points for death threats issued
to the player's immediate family, there's precious
little reason to even consider Ward. Last year's No. 1 pick
continues to post almost nonexistent numbers from one week to
the next, having not even reached the 200-yard mark in a game.
He doesn't add any value with his legs, either. Ward's
saving grace from an NFL perspective is that he doesn't
turn the ball over, but until he starts slinging the ball around,
he's not even worth carrying on a roster much less inserting
him into a weekly lineup.

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
No Brainers: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry, WR Zay Flowers
(hamstring)
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: TE Mark Andrews
Andrews had decent numbers in the first two games, though it would've
been a stretch to consider his production TE1 worthy. His output
dipped in Week 3 (3-24-0) and now he finds himself staring down
the barrel of a tough matchup with the Titans, who have allowed
the fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season by far --
the second-ranked Rams have given up 72 yards compared to Tennessee's
48. Andrews does operate as the de facto No. 2 target in Baltimore's
offense, so there's also a shot at playable value, but this
is one week I'd look to avoid him if you can.
Fades: WR Rashod Bateman
With Flowers back, Bateman returned to obscurity in Week 3, catching
just two passes for 37 yards. This is simply a PSA to remind you
to make sure the former first-round pick is out of your lineup,
if not off your roster completely.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Titans 14 ^
Top
Jaguars @ Bengals
- (Green)
Line: CIN -3.0
Total: 51.5

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
No Brainers: RB Bhayshul Tuten, WR Parker Washington
Favorites: QB Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence has sandwiched two strong showings around a disappointing
outing in Denver, passing for a combined seven TDs in Weeks 1
and 3. Of course, things should have been even better for fantasy
owners had he not inexplicably taken a knee rather than scoring
a touchdown with more than eight minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Based on that, it feels like he owes fantasy owners one. He could
start to pay it off this weekend. The Bengals are tied for the
third-most passing yards allowed this season, and they managed
to breathe life into a dormant Steelers air attack last Sunday.
Cincy has done a good job in the red zone, giving up just three
touchdown strikes, but that seems unsustainable. Lawrence is playable
as a midrange QB1.
On the Fence: WR Jakobi Meyers (thumb)
Meyers led the way in Week 3, catching seven passes for 64 yards
and a touchdown on eight targets. He scored in Week 1 as well,
though he managed just 68 yards combined over the first two games.
The veteran is clearly behind Washington in the pecking order,
but he's been efficient, catching all but one of his 11
targets this season. It's a matter of opportunity with Meyers,
who averaged 6.7 targets per game after being acquired from the
Raiders last season. Facing a middling Bengals pass defense, Meyers
has potential from your flex.
Fades: WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Much was made about Thomas' rededication during the offseason
after a disappointing sophomore campaign. Thus far, it hasn't
paid off. Thomas was targeted a dozen times over the first two
games, resulting in just six catches for 80 yards. This past Sunday,
Thomas caught his lone target for eight yards. It's certainly
possible the former first-round pick works his way back into Lawrence's
good graces, but given how little he's produced in three
games there's no reason to trust him with a spot in your
lineup.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, RB Chase Brown, WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: N/A
Fades: TE Mike Gesicki
After a 5-78-1 effort in Week 1, Gesicki wasn't even targeted
in Week 2. He rebounded to some extent last weekend, catching
three passes for 37 yards and a score. While you can't simply
dismiss two touchdowns in a three-week span, Gesicki's week-to-week
usage is unpredictable, and his ceiling is generally too modest
to offset his low floor. Houston hasn't allowed a touchdown to
tight ends this season, making Gesicki a poor bet to deliver playable
value.
Prediction: Jaguars 30, Bengals 24 ^
Top
Dolphins @ Vikings
- (Green)
Line: MIN -9.5
Total: 38.5

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: WR Malik Washington
On balance, I don't really like anyone against a Vikings defense
that has made life difficult on far more talented groups throughout
September. Still, Miami is going to gain some yards and players
are going to catch passes. While over the long term I prefer wideouts
like Caleb Douglas (ankle) and Chris Bell, Washington is the most
reliable pass catcher at this moment. His 23 targets are 11 more
than anyone else on the roster, and he comfortably leads the club
in receptions (12) and yards (152). He's someone you could utilize
as a flex.
On the Fence: RBs Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright (foot)
With De'Von Achane (knee) lost for the season, the running back
duties will fall to Wright and Gordon. In which order is the question.
When all three backs have been healthy, Wright has typically worked
ahead of Gordon as Achane's direct backup. Wright missed Week
3 due to a foot injury and a stinger, though, so it's unclear
what his status will be. Even if he's active, can he shoulder
a full load? If not, then Gordon should be the primary ball carrier.
He stepped in for Achane last Sunday and logged 20 touches. Granted,
he only turned that into 55 yards, but he did score a touchdown,
and anytime you're getting that level of involvement you carry
value. Keep an eye on the injury report, but regardless of status,
neither back is better than a risky flex.
Fades: QB Malik Willis
Minnesota's defense wore down Jordan Love, stifled Caleb Willliams,
and never let Baker Mayfield get going. Williams and Mayfield
were unable to finish their games. Willis is an elusive quarterback
to be sure, but with Achane gone, this offense is short on playmakers.
The former Packer hasn't done much to endear himself to fantasy
owners so far, and I doubt he'll start in Week 4.

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Update: WR Justin
Jefferson has been ruled Out.
No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones, WR Justin Jefferson (ankle)
Favorites: WR Jordan Addison
For the third time in as many weeks, the Vikings offense was
not good. Despite an undefeated record, Minnesota ranks dead last
with just 238.3 yards per game. The lone bright spot in Tampa
Bay was Addison, who caught five passes for 90 yards and a touchdown.
An early departure from Jefferson, who injured his ankle, was
certainly a factor, but after he caught just two passes for 21
yards in the first two games fantasy owners should take what they
can get. Miami has done a nice job limiting opposing wideouts,
so this has more to do with the possibility that Jefferson sits
in Week 4 than a plus matchup. If Jefferson appears ready to go
without restriction, go ahead and leave Addison on the bench.
If not, the USC alum has some appeal from your WR3/flex spot.
On the Fence: QB Kyler Murray
Murray looked very much like a quarterback that hadn't played
much football over the last year when he completed just 15 passes
for 168 yards in Week 3. Given that he was coming off a concussion
suffered early in Week 1 (and played much of the afternoon without
Jefferson), we can afford him some grace. We'll see if things
look any better versus Miami. The Dolphins rank 24th in fantasy
points allowed to QBs, in large because of the seven TD passes
they've given up. There's definite upside for Murray,
though considering he hasn't done anything in 2026, there's
also sizable risk.
Fades: N/A
Prediction: Vikings 23, Dolphins 10 ^
Top
Chiefs @ Raiders
- (Fessel)
Line: KC -4.5
Total: 47.5

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
No Brainers: RB Kenneth Walker
Favorites: QB Patrick Mahomes, WR Rashee Rice, TE Travis Kelce
Averaging 23.5 FPts/G through the first three games, Patrick
Mahomes hasn't missed a beat despite suffering an ACL tear that
shortened his 2025 season. The Raiders have allowed 20.1 FPts/G
to opposing QBs, although Malik Willis and struggling Justin Herbert
make up two of their three opponents. Mahomes scored 26.2 FPts
against Las Vegas last year, making another top-five performance
a reasonable expectation.
Rashee Rice's production has caused some concern among managers
who drafted him this summer. He hasn't dominated to start the
season (10.5 FPts/G), but he scored in the opener and has topped
80 receiving yards in each of the last two games. His nine targets
last week should help ease some of those concerns. He's just one
target behind Walker and Kelce for the team lead, remains an elite
red-zone target and should be in all lineups. He's on the WR1/2
fringe this week.
Travis Kelce has already had a pair of 40-plus-yard receptions
this season after managing just one over the previous two years.
The presence of Walker as a rushing threat appears to be opening
up opportunities for Kelce.
Kelce is averaging 6.0 targets per game, tied for eighth among
tight ends and his lowest mark since his first full season. That's
a continuation of the downward trend from 6.3 TGTS/G last year.
Kelce isn't likely to lead the team in targets when the season
ends, but he's benefiting from the attention being paid to the
running game. Las Vegas was shredded by New Orleans' tight ends
last week, allowing Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant to score twice
each. Kelce is an easy start.
On the Fence: N/A
Fades: WR Xavier Worthy
Xavier Worthy has caught 10 passes and scored a touchdown through
three weeks, but has managed just 67 yards on 15 targets. More
curious is that he hasn't handled a single rush, despite averaging
6.2 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns on 31 career
attempts.
It's too early to assume the Chiefs have abandoned that part
of his game, especially given his success on sweeps. But in an
offense that is also getting the running back heavily involved,
Worthy needs all the touch opportunities he can get.
The Raiders haven't been beaten by many receivers to start the
season, although they've faced a relatively light group of wideouts.
This isn't an elite matchup, and with Worthy competing for targets
with Rice and Kelce, he's best left on the bench this week.

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
No Brainers: TE Brock Bowers
Favorites: RB Ashton Jeanty
Ashton Jeanty draws a Chiefs defense that hasn't been as effective
against the run this year as it has in previous seasons. Kansas
City surrendered a pair of rushing touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor
two weeks ago and another to Miami's Ollie Gordon last week. The
Chiefs have also allowed at least three receptions to an opposing
back in each of the first three games.
Jeanty ranks 10th in FPts/G among running backs (16.3). While
his rushing production is off to a slow start (3.2 YDS/RUSH, zero
touchdowns), he already has 13 receptions, two of which have gone
for scores.
Averaging a whopping 25.3 touches per game, Jeanty is a low-end
RB1 against Kansas City.
On the Fence: N/A
Fades: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Tre Tucker
On the surface, it's difficult to sit a quarterback who has thrown
three touchdowns in three straight games. But Kirk Cousins hasn't
produced sustainable passing volume, averaging just 31 attempts
per game, and offers virtually no rushing value (-2 yards).
What Cousins has done while Brock Bowers has been available for
just one game is impressive, but even with Bowers healthy, the
receiving corps is otherwise thin. Kansas City hasn't allowed
an opposing QB to score more than 14 FPts, with Bo Nix's 9.4 FPts
representing the high-profile example.
Tre Tucker has also gotten off to a solid start, with 189 yards
and a touchdown on 15 targets. But there's little reason to expect
that production to continue, particularly against rookie cornerback
Mansoor Delane and a Kansas City defense that has allowed no receiving
touchdowns and the fewest FPts to opposing wideouts.
After a favorable opening stretch, the Raiders' schedule becomes
significantly more difficult over the next two months. Fantasy
managers should be cautious about chasing the early production
from Cousins or Tucker.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 17 ^
Top
Chargers @ Seahawks
- (Fessel)
Line: SEA -7.0
Total: 42.5

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: RB Omarion Hampton
Omarion Hampton is one of the names frequently mentioned among
panicked fantasy football managers early this season. Hampton
has been hampered by the Chargers' painfully slow start on offense
(just 14.7 PPG) and has also been sloppy with the football (2
fumbles), but he's still handling 16.7 rushes/game despite a ton
of negative game script.
His lack of volume in the passing game is a little concerning
(just 3 targets, thus far), but Keaton Mitchell being seen in
a boot this week could help Hampton see some positive regression.
The bad news is that the Seahawks are hosting the Chargers, and
they've continued right where they left off against running
backs in 2025, allowing under 3 yards/rush in the early going.
Still, volume is king, or at least a prince, and that makes Hampton
an RB2 this weekend.
On the Fence: WR Ladd McConkey (foot), WR Quentin Johnston, TE Oronde Gadsden
Wide receiver Ladd McConkey did not practice Thursday, leaving
his status for this weekend in considerable doubt. Coming into
the week, Ladd was ranked as WR27 (10.1 FPts/G), seeing just 15
targets thus far. McConkey has yet to become the target monster
that many anticipated he would become after a strong rookie year
(12.4 FPts/G). It's kept him more in Flex territory than WR2,
let alone WR1, territory for the past year-plus. Against the Seahawks,
if he can hit the field, a Flex is all he should be considered.
If he's unable to play, WR Quentin Johnston will likely see a
boost in target attention. Johnston leads the team in targets
(17), as it is, thus far. Yet he's converted them into just 6-64-0.
Johnston, who's been most effective when the Chargers are
seeing a lot of red-zone opportunities, doesn't catch a
break this week against Seattle. But he has some Flex value if
he steps into the team's WR1 role this weekend.
Gadsden could also benefit from a boost in targets should McConkey
indeed miss this weekend. Gadsden already seemed in line for a
boost after TEs David Njoku and Charlie Kolar went on IR a week
ago, but he produced a goose egg on 3 targets versus Buffalo.
Gadsden has just 7 targets (4-50-1) through three games, so his
fringe TE1 status this weekend is largely dependent on the Chargers
being down another receiving weapon around him.
Fades: QB Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert and the Chargers had a lot of buzz in many circles
this summer, but the buzz has quickly died and turned into a whole
lot of stunned silence. Herbert has been wildly inaccurate, being
On Target for just 67% of his passes. Those are similar numbers
to 2025's Shedeur Sanders, to put that in context.
It's hard to imagine that Herbert's accuracy and
all-around play won't make at least some strides in the
coming weeks, but it's a tall task to ask for it against
the Seahawks, especially with McConkey hampered and possibly out.
It's best to find an alternative at QB this weekend.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
No Brainers: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: RB Emanuel Wilson
With Jadarian Price struggling with both injury issues and fumbles
to start his career, a door has opened for Emanuel Wilson to at
least temporarily lead the backfield. In Week 2, he handled 21
rushes (92 yards), and led the team last week, as well, though
that total dipped to 9 rushes (and only 14 yards). Wilson hasn't
really been involved in the passing game, thus far (just 1 target),
though that could change this weekend if Price is out.
The Chargers have hardly been stellar against the run, thus far,
though that was mostly due to James Cook (154 yards and a score)
last week. They held Arizona's backfield to under 4 YDS/Rush in
Week 1 and Las Vegas to under 3 YDS/Rush in Week 2.
There's some uncertainty around the Seahawks backfield right
now, and plenty of uncertainty as to whether the Chargers are
going to soon kick into gear. But if Jadarian Price is out, Emanuel
Wilson should see the bulk of the opportunities and, in that event,
can be viewed as a low-end RB2. Otherwise, he's a very risky Flex
most suitable for deeper leagues.
Update: RB Jadarian
Price has been ruled Out.
Fades: RB Jadarian Price (chest)
Even if Jadarian Price suits up this weekend, which is becoming
increasingly less likely after he missed practice Thursday, there's
no guarantee he'll stay healthy or play cleanly enough to see
more than the mere 36% of snaps he's "enjoyed" thus far.
For the moment, being this banged up means that the risk of him
limping off the field or being benched for fumbling is just too
great when a trusty veteran is waiting in the wings. There should
be better days ahead, but it might be best to let this backfield
get its feet under it before counting on Price.
Prediction: Seahawks 26, Chargers 19 ^
Top
Broncos @ 49ers
- (Fessel)
Line: SF -2.5
Total: 47.5

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
No Brainers: N/A
Favorites: WR Jaylen Waddle, RB RJ Harvey
Jaylen Waddle has been hot-and-cold so far this year, producing
just 2-10-0 after going for 8-138-0 the week before. The Rams
secondary is a particularly tough challenge, of course, and Waddle
still had 7 targets. He also leads the Broncos with 20 targets
on the season.
The 49ers defense surrendered 20.4 FPts to Arizona WR Michael
Wilson last week and allowed a 77-yard touchdown to Miami WR Ryan
Miller the week before, so they have been far from a steel trap,
thus far. With Waddle remaining Nix's best bet, he's
a low-end WR2 this week.
Running back RJ Harvey has totaled 10 receptions in the two games
he's been healthy, but he's been barely involved as a rusher (5-24-0).
Still, the 49ers have struggled to stop opposing backs from catching
passes, including allowing Jeremiah Love (5 receptions) and Tyler
Allgeier (4 receptions) to be busy in the passing game last week.
Sean Payton and company may look to get Harvey on the field for
extra snaps this week to try to exploit this. That opens a window
for Harvey to enjoy increased involvement in the running game,
too. Harvey is a solid Flex option with RB2 upside versus the
49ers.
On the Fence: QB Bo Nix, WR Courtland Sutton
Quarterback Bo Nix fared better in Week 3, passing for 2 touchdowns
and rushing for another, while adding a pair of 2-point conversions
along the way. Still, he struggled with accuracy once more, completing
just half his passes on the day (186 yards). Nix also threw his
third pick in as many games.
The Niners won't likely make things easier. They are allowing
under 6 yards/pass thus far, and while Jacoby Brissett had a good
fantasy day against them (25.6 FPts), it took him 52 passes to
do so. Nix is only averaging 31 PA/G to start the year, and while
that number may pick up for the third-year QB – especially after
leading the league in pass attempts last year – his inconsistency
and the matchup put him on the fence, more fairly as a high-end
QB2 than a QB1.
Alarmingly, Bo Nix has thrown all 3 of his interceptions when
trying to get the ball to 31-year-old Courtland Sutton. A lack
of target separation may be part of the issue – Sutton is getting
just 0.75 yards of separation, thus far, according to Player Profiler.
It may be fair to wonder whether Sutton's age is catching up to
him. For the moment, the veteran wide receiver is a risky Flex
versus San Francisco.
Fades: TE Evan Engram
After a solid opener (4-50-1), TE Evan Engram has since recorded
just 1 receiving yard on 3 targets. Since joining Denver, Engram
has averaged just 27.4 receiving yards/game. He's off the fantasy
radar.

DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey, TE George Kittle
Favorites: QB Brock Purdy
With how big a fantasy producer Brock Purdy has been since the
start of his truncated 2025 campaign, he arguably could be a No
Brainer this week. But, alas, the Broncos defense is coming to
town.
Still, Purdy has not been sacked through three games, getting
rid of the ball far quicker than ever before (just 2.3 seconds
in the pocket) and with incredible precision (89% On Target Rate).
The bump in accuracy may not be entirely sustainable, but it's
arguably not a fluke – Purdy was On Target on 82% of his
passes in 9 starts last year.
Even versus Denver's defense, armed with a healthy-looking George
Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, Purdy is a must-start.
On the Fence: WR Deebo Samuel, WR Mike Evans (ribs)
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel had one of the strangest games a week
ago. He managed 80 receiving yards and a score without being targeted
for the entire game. The yardage came on the back (and long) end
of a successful hook-and-ladder play. Samuel also added 14 rushing
yards, as his reunion with the 49ers has renewed Shanahan's creative
use of the veteran.
Teammate and fellow WR Mike Evans played through a hip injury
last week, seeing 6 targets (3-34-1). Evans is a very risky play
if he does hit the field this weekend, considering the difficulty
of the Broncos secondary and the fact that he could leave the
game with an injury.
Evans' nearly unmatched red-zone chops make him an upside Flex
option in deeper leagues, though, if he plays. Deebo Samuel would
see a boost from a Flex option to a low-end WR2 if Evans is out.
Fades: N/A
Prediction: 49ers 24, Broncos 20 ^
Top
Lions @ Panthers
- (Woods)
Line: DET -4.0
Total: 51.5

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
No Brainers: QB Jared Goff, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Favorites: WR Jameson Williams
Williams' snap share slipped to 82% last week as Detroit worked
Isaac TeSlaa into more packages. I'm watching that, but 82% is
still a starter's workload and this is about as good a matchup
as you can draw for Williams' specific skill set.
Carolina just placed both starting corners, Jaycee Horn and Mike
Jackson, on injured reserve. That's a major problem against a
receiver whose fantasy ceiling is built around creating explosive
plays on the perimeter.
I'm not worried enough about one week of personnel rotation to
move off Williams here. He's a strong WR2 with legitimate ceiling.
On the Fence: N/A
Fades: N/A

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
No Brainers: RB Chuba Hubbard
Favorites: WR Tetairoa McMillan
This is probably my favorite buy-low spot of the week. McMillan
gave fantasy managers two catches for 17 yards against Cleveland.
Meanwhile, he played 73 of Carolina's 77 offensive snaps. Through
three games he still leads the Panthers with a 19% target share,
and the offense has consistently given him opportunities downfield
and near the end zone.
Now the game environment changes completely. Detroit can score,
Carolina has been playing fast, and the Panthers may have to throw
throughout the second half.
I'm following the role instead of the 2-17 line last week. McMillan
is a WR2 for me this week with considerably more upside than last
Sunday's box score suggests.
Update: WR Jalen
Coker is not expected to play.
On the Fence: QB Bryce Young, WR Jalen Coker (quad)
Young has thrown for 939 yards and seven touchdowns through three
games. Normally that would make this pretty easy.
The problem is what's happening around him. Carolina could be
missing starting offensive linemen, and Jalen Coker and Xavier
Legette are both dealing with injuries. Coker did improve to a
limited practice Thursday, which helps.
The 50-plus point game total gives Young plenty of ceiling, especially
if Detroit forces Carolina to keep throwing. The protection concerns
keep me from calling him a Favorite. He's a viable QB1 streamer,
but I'd rather use him for upside than floor.
Coker going from a Wednesday DNP to a limited Thursday practice
keeps him alive for me.
Before hurting his quad, Coker had emerged as one of Bryce Young's
most important receivers. His Week 3 snap count cratered because
he left injured, not because Carolina reduced his role.
Friday matters. If Coker practices again and avoids a concerning
designation, I still like him as a deeper WR3/Flex in a game that
could generate plenty of passing volume. Another setback moves
him right back to the bench.
Fades: N/A
I'm not manufacturing a Detroit or Carolina Fade just to fill
the category. There are too many usable roles in a game carrying
one of the highest totals of the week.
Prediction: Lions 31, Panthers 27 ^
Top
Falcons @ Saints
- (Woods)
Line: NO -1.5
Total: 47.5

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
No Brainers: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London
Favorites: N/A
On the Fence: QB Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta looked like a completely different offense when Penix
returned last week. He completed 18-of-25 passes for 256 yards
and a touchdown while the Falcons finally generated the explosive
plays that were missing during the first two weeks.
New Orleans doesn't scare me enough to avoid the matchup, and
having Bijan Robinson and Drake London handling such massive portions
of the offense gives Penix a pretty clean path to production.
He's not suddenly an every-week QB1, especially in an offense
that still wants to run the ball. But he's a legitimate streamer
in deeper one-QB leagues and very playable in Superflex.
Fades: TE Kyle Pitts
This one has almost nothing to do with New Orleans. Pitts owns
just a 7.6% target share through three games. Atlanta continues
using multiple tight ends, and even with Penix returning and the
offense finally getting rolling last week, Pitts caught one pass
for five yards.
That's the part I can't ignore. The offense worked and his role
still didn't expand.
Pitts can always turn one play into a touchdown because he's
Kyle Pitts. Fantasy managers have been living on that sentence
for a while now. Until the targets and routes give us a reason
to expect more, he's a touchdown-dependent streamer rather than
an automatic TE1.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
No Brainers: WR Chris Olave
Favorites: QB Tyler Shough
The Saints are giving Shough enough volume to matter. New Orleans
is running more than 73 plays per game, the highest mark in the
league, and Shough just threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns
against Las Vegas. The turnovers hurt the Saints, but fantasy
managers don't need perfect quarterback play if the attempts and
scoring opportunities stay this high.
Atlanta has been far easier to attack through the air than on
the ground, which lines up with what New Orleans already wants
to do. Shough is one of my preferred streaming quarterbacks this
week and a clear Superflex start.
On the Fence: RB Alvin Kamara
Travis Etienne going on injured reserve makes Kamara more interesting.
I don't think it automatically makes him a workhorse again.
Before Etienne went down, Kamara had accounted for only 28% of
the Saints' running back touches. After the injury last week,
New Orleans still mixed in Kendre Miller, and rookie C.J. Donaldson
received the backfield's lone touch inside the 10.
Now they draw an Atlanta defense allowing only 3.1 yards per
carry to running backs.
Kamara should see more work because there is simply less competition
available. I'm just not jumping all the way to RB2 based on Etienne's
absence alone. He's an RB3/Flex in PPR formats until we see how
much of the vacated role actually becomes his.
Fades: N/A
Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 24 ^ Top
|