Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a “no-brainer” throughout
much of the season and given the other options, he’s probably
worthy of being in that position again for the Super Bowl. However,
there are concerns that he’s facing a New England defense
that boasts one of the deepest, most talented secondaries in the
league, perhaps second only to the Seahawks themselves.
There’s a chance that the Patriots could opt to simply
bracket-coverage Smith-Njigba and force other players to beat
them, but other teams have tried to do that this season, to little
success. JSN has been a monster producer all throughout the season
and it’s only continued in the postseason where he’s
managed to score touchdowns in both contests, including a 10-catch,
153-yard performance against the Rams in the NFC Championship.
Other names on the board might feel familiar, but don’t
make the mistake of avoiding an elite fantasy asset in the final
game of the season.
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker is an explosive talent who
has really excelled in the playoffs, especially with teammate
Zach Charbonnet out. He’s produced 178 yards on the ground, caught
seven passes for 78 yards through the air, and he’s scored four
touchdowns in just two games. Needless to say, those who’ve been
riding the “hot hand” with Walker have been quite happy with the
results.
This type of production would typically mean that Walker would
be an absolute smash play in any matchup, but we’re looking
at a showdown with one of the league’s true shutdown run
defenses. New England finished 5th in fantasy points conceded
to opposing running backs throughout the regular season and head
coach Mike Vrabel specializes in taking away what an opponent
does best, particularly if it’s on the ground.
The one interesting thing to look at, though, is that while New
England’s run defense was elite throughout most of the regular
season, they actually struggled in that area down the stretch
despite winning most of those games. They didn’t allow a
single running back to rush for even 60 yards against them through
the first 11 weeks of the season, but from that point on, the
defense seemed to stumble, allowing four different running backs
to exceed 100 yards on the ground over their final five contests.
Sure, they got back to shutting down opposing running games in
the playoffs, but there’s still some hope that an offense
like Seattle’s can open up some running lanes for Walker,
especially if they get out ahead on the scoreboard.
The "Redemption Arc" narrative is great for TV, but
terrible for overanxious fantasy managers who let narratives drive
them away from the data. While Darnold had a nice resurgent season,
he still threw for under 3,800 yards and he now faces a Patriots'
defense that has been a nightmare in the playoffs, allowing just
8.7 fantasy points per game in three contests.
Bill Belichick may be gone, but the Patriots' defensive philosophy
remains the same as it’s been during their other Super Bowl
runs this century: confuse the quarterback. New England excels
at disguised coverages that bait quarterbacks into mistakes. In
his first Super Bowl, Darnold is a prime candidate for turnovers.
Expect a "game manager" stat line rather than a fantasy-winning
performance.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
While the Seahawks boast perhaps the league’s best pass
defense this season, Drake Maye offers the "Konami Code"
upside that fantasy managers can take advantage of in the Super
Bowl. The Seahawks performed well against efficient rushing quarterbacks
throughout the regular season, but the truth is that they avoided
facing very many of them. In fact, the only two QBs they faced
that typically do much damage on the ground were Kyler Murray
(who rushed for 41 yards against them) and Jayden Daniels (who
rushed for 51 yards and a touchdown against them).
Maye rushed for 65 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos
in the AFC Championship and we should expect him to build off
of that in the Super Bowl. Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense has
an elite secondary that will likely blanket the Patriots' receivers.
This coverage could force Maye to run even more often than usual.
The old, “live to play another down” mentality goes
out the window in the Super Bowl, so look for Maye to rely on
his legs if and when the pocket collapses, providing a high floor
even if his passing yardage is stifled by this secondary.
Kayshon Boutte was the breakout star of the Patriots' first two
playoff games, but he ran into a tough matchup against the Broncos
in the AFC Championship, who held him to just one catch for six
yards on six targets. Now Boutte and the Patriots face their toughest
test yet in the Seattle Seahawks
Boutte has been efficient in the playoffs, catching 8 passes
for 147 yards and a touchdown over three games. He has shockingly
looked like the WR1 over the veteran Stefon Diggs, who has managed
only 73 total yards in the same span.
Boutte is clearly the hot hand, even coming off of his dud in
the AFC title game, but relying on a player who’s typically
a WR3/4 against an elite pass defense is risky. He is a boom-or-bust
play: he could catch a 50-yard bomb off a broken play, or he could
be completely erased. There aren’t many wide receiver options
in this one, though, so Boutte might be worth taking a shot on.
Veteran running back Rhamondre Stevenson was the unsung hero
of the Patriots' offense down the stretch during the regular season,
but his efficiency has really taken a hit in the playoffs, averaging
just 3.8 yards per carry on 51 attempts.
Now he faces a Seattle defense that has been like running straight
into a brick wall for opposing RBs. Seattle finished the regular
season with the fourth-fewest fantasy points conceded to the position.
The Patriots' offensive line has struggled to generate push against
elite fronts during the playoffs and while Stevenson has been
able to avoid total fantasy disasters with pure volume, he’s
not likely to see that kind of work in this game. The Patriots
are underdogs and the game script could force them to abandon
the run early. Stevenson needs a touchdown to pay off, and Seattle
conceded just five touchdowns to the position all season—fewest
of any team by a wide margin.
Avoid both Stevenson and his teammate, rookie TreVeyon Henderson,
in the Super Bowl.
