Rhamondre Stevenson’s streak of dominance stumbled a bit in the
divisional round, but he didn’t completely collapse as he still
managed to put together a 12-fantasy point day against an excellent
Houston defense. Stevenson’s usage numbers remain excellent as
he dominated both the touch count and snap count over teammate
TreVeyon Henderson by a nearly two-to-one ratio.
Stevenson now faces a Denver defense that was dominant against
opposing running backs throughout the regular season. They allowed
the fewest fantasy points in the league to the position. However,
things weren’t quite so easy this past week when they faced
James Cook, who carried the ball 24 times for 117 yards against
them while also adding an additional two catches for 24 yards.
It would be tough for Stevenson to replicate the usage and success
that Cook had, but things do look significantly different now
that the Broncos are without quarterback Bo Nix. With Jarrett
Stidham at QB, this could end up being a dominant victory for
the Patriots, who’ve shown the ability to run the ball against
their opponents when they get ahead on the scoreboard. Stevenson
is in a very unique spot against an excellent defense, but the
situation and usage may be able to counteract the bad matchup.
Stefon Diggs is still the Patriots’ WR1, but a player who took
a big step forward this past week was WR Kayshon Boutte. Boutte
only caught three passes against the Texans, but he managed to
turn it into 75 yards and a touchdown. But perhaps most importantly,
he played by far the most snaps of any Patriots wide receiver—nearly
20 more than Stefon Diggs and over 30 more than any other receiver.
It’s true that much of this is due to Diggs’ history of a lack
of blocking effort for the running game, but that might actually
play into Boutte’s favor especially in a game like this where
the Patriots could get out to a lead.
Boutte now faces a Broncos defense that was perhaps the best
overall unit in the league throughout the regular season, and
he’s still behind Diggs in the target pecking order, but
he’s an under-the-radar player who is a nice high-upside
differentiator for DFS lineups.
Running back TreVeyon Henderson continues to operate behind Rhamondre
Stevenson in the Patriots’ backfield and for good reason.
The rookie has simply been ineffective as a runner throughout
the second half of the season, as he’s averaged fewer than
4.5 yards per carry in all but two games since Week 10. Additionally,
his usage in the passing game has taken a significant step back
during this stretch, as he’s caught just 17 passes over
his past 10 games.
With a tough Denver defense now in front of him, this is the
time to keep Henderson out of your lineup. There’s still
time for him to take over this backfield in future seasons, but
that looks unlikely to happen this season.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The Broncos will be without their star young quarterback Bo Nix
and that makes it tough to trust anyone in this offense from a
fantasy perspective. The one exception, though, could be veteran
wide receiver Courtland Sutton. Sutton has consistently dominated
the target share for the Broncos and he not only played by far
the most snaps, but also led the team in targets this past week.
Quarterback Jarrett Stidham doesn’t make us too excited about
his upside, but there’s a decent chance that the Broncos fall
behind on the scoreboard in this one and the Patriots end up playing
a much more “bend but don’t break” defense in this contest. If
that happens, Stidham will almost certainly lock in to his top
pass-catcher and that could mean a heavy target day for Sutton.
Of course, even if he does see a bunch of passes come his way,
he’ll still be in a less-than-advantageous spot as he sees plenty
of attention from the Patriots’ elite secondary.
Fade: Broncos Running Backs
One of the biggest trends in fantasy football is an over-reliance
on the “they have to run the ball” narrative anytime
a starting quarterback gets injured. That will only be even more
amplified in the AFC Championship game as the Broncos will be
without Bo Nix. While it’s obvious that the Broncos would
love to control the game with their running game, that’s
true even when Nix is on the field, so the offense isn’t
likely to change a ton from a neutral-game pass-to-run ratio standpoint.
However, what is likely to be much different is the effectiveness
of the passing game and the lack of a mobile quarterback. This
will almost certainly result in the Patriots stacking the box
and “daring” Jarrett Stidham to beat them with his
arm.
To make matters more complicated, the Broncos’ already-cluttered
backfield becomes even busier this week with the likely return
of early-season starter J.K. Dobbins. Dobbins hasn’t played
since early-November, but has now practiced in back-to-back days
and reporters seem to believe that he’ll be active for this
pivotal AFC Championship game. The Broncos will need all the offensive
firepower they can get in this one, so don’t be surprised
if Dobbins immediately re-inserts himself back into the starter
conversation.
We don’t know exactly how this situation will shake out,
though, so trusting any of these backs—including RJ Harvey—is
an extremely risky proposition. Add in the fact that this backfield
will be up against a Patriots unit that held opposing running
backs to the fifth-fewest fantasy points during the regular season
and this whole situation is one to avoid.
In frigid Chicago conditions, the Rams leaned heavily on Kyren
Williams to punch their ticket to the NFC Championship. Williams
delivered, turning 25 touches into 117 yards and two touchdowns
(25.7 FPts).
Williams out-touched Blake Corum 25–6, a reflection of both trust
and necessity with Stafford needing quicker checkdowns. Even if
the touch gap narrows slightly this week, Williams continues to
be one of the league’s steadiest producers — now with eight straight
games of at least 72 total yards and an eye-popping 48 touchdowns
across his last 50 combined regular- and postseason games.
Seattle presents a stiff challenge, allowing the 2nd fewest FPts
to opposing RBs, but they’ve been far more vulnerable through
the air, surrendering a league-high 97 receptions to the position.
Williams has caught 3+ passes in four of his last five games and
has averaged 80.5 rushing yards and 13.1 FPts/G in two meetings
with Seattle this season.
The Seahawks may cap Williams’ ceiling in the high-teens,
but among the remaining backs, few offer a comparable floor. He
remains one of the safest RB options this weekend.
At tight end, Colby Parkinson appears to have held off Tyler
Higbee’s return to relevance, logging 84% of snaps against
Chicago compared to Higbee’s 10%. While the Rams could reintroduce
more 13 personnel this week, Parkinson still looks like the preferred
option.
Coming off another two-touchdown performance, Parkinson stands
out as a viable alternative to Hunter Henry among the remaining
tight ends. Seattle has allowed the 11th most FPts to the position
and has surrendered a TD to a Rams tight end in both matchups
this year — one of which belonged to Parkinson back in Week 11.
The concern is volume efficiency: Parkinson totaled just four
catches for 35 yards across those two games. Still, he’s
seen at least five targets in five of his last six contests and
seven targets in three of the last four, averaging 11.0 FPts/G
over that stretch. He’s not a lock, but the upside is real.
Stafford struggled last week, completing just 47.6% of his passes
while fumbling twice. Whether that was due more to his hand injury
or the brutal Chicago weather is debatable, but concerns about
ball security remain.
Seattle’s dismantling of San Francisco has naturally raised
questions about whether the Rams can move the ball, but it’s
worth remembering that L.A. hung 37 points on the Seahawks just
five weeks ago. In that game, Stafford was sensational, throwing
for 457 yards and three scores without a sack or turnover —
despite missing Davante Adams — in a performance the Rams
still lost in overtime.
Stafford’s two games against Seattle have been polar opposites
(457 yards vs. 130), but he’s thrown five touchdowns and
hasn’t been sacked on 77 dropbacks. If his hand holds up,
something between those extremes is plausible. He carries clear
300-yard, multi-TD upside, but the injury concerns and Seattle’s
recent dominance place him behind one other QB option this week.
Davante Adams hasn’t fully clicked since returning from
injury, catching just 7 of 19 targets across two games. Still,
the volume has been encouraging (nearly 10 Tgts/G), suggesting
Sean McVay and Stafford believe he’s close to full strength.
That said, Adams was blanketed by Seattle in their lone meeting,
catching just 1 of 8 targets for one yard — though, fittingly,
that catch went for a touchdown. Adams’ league-leading touchdown
resume keeps him firmly in play, but inefficiency concerns and
the matchup introduce real floor risk.
Blake Corum remains involved (37% snap rate vs. Chicago), but
his touch volume has been unreliable, totaling just six touches
in two separate games over the last month. With only 10 receptions
across 19 games and Seattle favored, opportunities may be scarce.
Corum remains a strong dynasty hold, but for playoff formats,
he’s best left on the bench.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
With Zach Charbonnet exiting early due to a knee injury, Kenneth
Walker finally operated as a true bell cow — and delivered in
emphatic fashion. Walker shredded the 49ers for 145 yards and
three rushing touchdowns, finishing with 34 fantasy points in
a dominant 41–6 win.
This wasn’t a fluke. In the only other game Charbonnet
missed this season, Walker scored twice and posted 17.5 FPts.
Prior to that, the last time Walker had the backfield to himself
came in 2023, when he logged 26 carries for 105 yards. The sample
size is small, but the takeaway is clear: Walker can thrive as
a workhorse.
Third-string RB George Holani is expected back, but he profiles
as a change-of-pace option rather than a threat to Walker’s workload.
Walker has already gashed the Rams for 275 rushing yards and two
touchdowns this season, and with volume now firmly on his side,
he projects as a low-end RB1 even against a tough front.
The Rams have allowed volume to tight ends (92 receptions) while
limiting efficiency (8.4 yds/rec, seven TDs), which would normally
relegate AJ Barner — 23rd in FPts/G — to the fringe.
However, Barner has been notably productive against L.A.
In Week 11, he saw a career-high 11 targets, catching 10 passes.
In Week 16, he added a 4-49-1 line. Across the two games, Barner
totaled 25.1 FPts, delivering TE1-level production.
Seattle has also used Barner creatively near the line of scrimmage,
and the Rams have curiously allowed the 2nd most rushing attempts
to tight ends this season (12, including a TD). Without Charbonnet,
Seattle could lean even more on Barner in short-yardage and goal-line
situations. He’s far from a sure thing, but he’s a
legitimate discount option with sneaky upside.
Darnold has played clean football the last two weeks, but once
again functioned strictly as a game manager in Seattle’s
blowout win over San Francisco. He hasn’t topped 10.1 FPts
in three straight games, all Seahawks victories driven by defense
and the run game.
While Darnold did post 19.5 FPts in a Week 16 shootout against
the Rams, he managed just 12.3 FPts in the other meeting despite
44 pass attempts and four interceptions. The Rams have picked
him off six times in two games, and Seattle’s preferred
formula doesn’t require Darnold to push the ball.
Even if healthy, the path to fantasy relevance is narrow. He’s
best avoided despite Seattle’s strong odds of advancing.
