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Mike Davis | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Four Players You'll Have to Overpay For
7/15/16

My June column focused on four players (QB/RB/WR/TE) that I expect to have strong rebound performances in 2016. Plenty of readers (including Mike Krueger himself, who continues to worry about Arian Foster's health) took issue with one or two of my selections, but Jim fired back with a complete list of his own top rebound selections:

QB Andrew Luck

A lot of people seem to have undervalued Luck in different mock draft formats I have done so far this offseason. I think he is due for the classic definition of a rebound season. Indy is showing steady improvement along the offensilve line and other teams in the AFC South have finally made upgrades on offense. That could lead to some more shootouts—meaning Luck could approach career numbers across the board if he can stay healthy, which up until last season was not a question with him.

RB Carlos Hyde

If Chip Kelly's short tenure as coach in Philly is any indicator of what he plans to do in SF, then Carlos Hyde is going to be used a ton this year. He won't need to come off the field in the quick play offense. His Week 1 tease from last season (168 yds, 2TDs) could be repeated several times in 2016. The SF QB, whoever that turns out to be, won't have much else to throw to, so I expect Hyde to crush his previous career high in receptions (12). 2016 may be more than a rebound for Hyde. It could easily be a slam dunk, get-the-foul-call, and sink-the-free-throw season for him.

WR Julian Edelman

Somehow, a guy who had done nothing but produce solid PPR numbers for two seasons and then finally seemed to figure out how to find the end zone last year is still being drafted as a low-end WR2. Tom Brady may miss the first four games, and that will probably keep Edelman's stock low, but I suspect that Edelman's usage in those games will be as heavy as ever. I expect Edelman's numbers this year to resemble or surpass the peak seasons of Wes Welker's time in NE. The chemistry with Brady and knowledge of the system are undeniably huge assets for this smaller receiver.

TE Jimmy Graham

I have to wonder if there is something else going on with Graham that I don't know about. I know that he is recovering from a serious injury and that he did not exactly light the world on fire in his time on the field in 2015. But even though I hate to resort to this argument, we're talking about Jimmy Graham here. If I am getting Graham at backup TE prices and it makes me happy. With Lynch gone and Rawls returning from his own serious injury, there is going to be a rise in Wilson attempts this year. I anticipate he will turn a lot of those extra looks towards the mismatch-waiting-to-happen that is Graham.

Jim went on to challenge me to produce a column concerning the most "overhyped/overpriced" players of 2016—probably because he's ready to send me a list of his own four candidates as soon as I do.

Well Jim, your challenge has been accepted. These are the players at the four most important skill positions that probably won't be on my fantasy team in 2016. To be clear, I don't expect any of these guys to bust. I think they will all be significant fantasy contributors throughout the season—but in every case there are cheaper alternatives that I expect to outperform them.

QB: Cam Newton (Carolina)

Before the 2015 season, few experts projected Newton to finish as the best fantasy QB in the league—but that didn't stop him. Before the 2016 season, almost everyone expects Newton to finish the season as the best fantasy QB in the league—but that doesn't clinch things for him. Stellar QBs get a lot of attention from opposing defenses, which is why it's so hard for anyone to finish as the top QB (from a fantasy perspective at least) two seasons in a row. If I'm going to blow an early draft pick on a QB (which I almost certainly won't), then I'll only do so if I think the QB in question is extremely likely to finish the season as the top dog at his position. We've seen all the usual suspects accomplish that feat in recent years (Drew Brees in 2012, Peyton Manning in 2013, Andrew Luck in 2014, and Cam Newton in 2015), and I expect the revolving door to continue moving in 2016. With WR Jordy Nelson returning to the lineup in Green Bay, my money is on Aaron Rodgers to edge out Newton for the No.1 QB spot this year.

Todd Gurley

Thinking about taking a running back in the first round? Go for one that's active in the passing game.


RB: Todd Gurley (St. Louis)

I have no doubt that Gurley will be a monster in 2016. With Jeff Fisher as his head coach, it's easy to see why so many folks expect Gurley to look like the Eddie George of the late '90s or the Chris Johnson of 2009. The main problem I have with this argument is that the passing game has become far more important and productive in the NFL than it was in 1999 or 2009. Don't lose sight of the fact that Gurley finished the 2015 season with 21 catches (less than 2 per game) for a grand total of 188 yards and zero TDs. Sure, I want Gurley (with his 1106 rushing yards and 10 TDs as a rookie) on my team, but there are several other RBs that I want more (thanks to their substantial involvement in the passing game), such as David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Le'Veon Bell, and Jamaal Charles.

WR: Alshon Jeffery (Chicago)

Again, this is not meant to be a knock on Jeffery; he's a beast. But it's unrealistic for people to assume that since his calf and hamstring problems appear to be behind him, he's ready to return to his 2014 form. In 2014, Jeffery was one fabulous cog in a dazzling Bears offensive machine that included Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall, and Martellus Bennett. He definitely benefited from the synergy generated by that kind of concentrated talent and athleticism. Even if he is as good in 2016 as he was two years ago, the people surrounding him (Jeremy Langford, Zach Miller, and rookie WR Kevin White) are unlikely to present the same kinds of challenges to defenses that they faced vs. the Bears in 2014. You can have Jeffery if you want; I'll take any of the five WRs currently projected by FFToday to finish just behind him instead (Brandon Marshall, Mike Evans, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, or Brandin Cooks).

TE: Rob Gronkowski (New England)

Since I indicated in June that I expect Martellus Bennett to be a major contributor in New England this year, it shouldn't surprise anyone that I also expect Gronkowski's production to decrease. There's no way Gronk doesn't finish as a top-5 TE, but it won't surprise me to see Bennett cut deeply enough into his stats to propel Washington's Jordan Reed to the number one position for TEs. It's hard for me to imagine a draft/auction scenario that would result in my pulling the trigger on Gronk—since I can get Reed so much more cheaply.


Mike Davis has been writing about fantasy football since 1999--and playing video games even longer than that. His latest novel (concerning a gamer who gets trapped inside Nethack after eating too many shrooms) can be found here.