In the past few articles we have dug into the historical consistency of top fantasy players by position. In the wide receiver article we focused on a points-per-reception scoring format, where each reception is worth 0.5 points. This article provides corresponding stats for a non-PPR league then highlights receivers whose value is more dependent on a scoring system than most of their peers.

Every receivers fantasy points are higher in a PPR format than in a corresponding non-PPR format. Some players see their points increase significantly more than others. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what it takes for this to happen: catching a lot of passes. Players who catch fewer passes than their peers tend to perform better in a non-PPR format.

If you’ve followed any of my past few articles, you’ve gotten familiar with some statistics we’ve used to dig into historical performance. Let’s start by refreshing these stats for WR’s in a non-PPR scoring format. A more detailed discussion on what these stats mean and how to use them is available in prior articles.

We use our usual WR scoring system with one adjustment – we no longer award any points for each reception. That is, a reception is worth 0 fantasy points (instead of 0.5 points in a PPR). This table shows the scoring system we use.

The number of games in the sample size for each player is unchanged, but it is included again below:

Let’s sort the players by their change in ranking in moving from the non-PPR format to the PPR format. The -8 for Wes Welker indicates that he is ranked 8 spots better in PPR than in non-PPR. To nobody’s surprise he’s worth more in a PPR format historically. The 5 for Santonio Holmes indicates that he is ranked 5 spots worse in PPR than in non-PPR. His worth is less in a PPR format historically.

• Wes Welker, Derrick Mason, and Donald Driver are much more valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR format. This indicates they catch a lot more passes than their peers with a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A significant portion of their value comes from frequent targets that don’t amount to a lot of yards or touchdowns.
  
  
• Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Santonio Holmes are less valuable in a PPR scoring format than a non-PPR format. This indicates they catch fewer passes than their peers with a similar amount of receiving yards and touchdowns. A lot of their value comes from games where they have only a couple receptions, but they “make them count”.

In past articles we have spent a fair amount of time discussing not only the average points per game, but also the distribution of the scores that lead to those averages. Let’s look at the change in rankings by percentile from moving from non-PPR to PPR format.

The -11 for the Median of Eddie Royal indicates the ranking of his median score among all receivers is 11 spots better in a PPR format than a non-PPR. The 9 for the median of Plaxico Burress indicates the ranking of his median score among all receivers is 9 sports worse in a PPR format than a non-PPR league.

• More players that thrive in a PPR system stand out here. Eddie Royal, Bobby Engram, Laveranues Coles, and Jerricho Cotchery are the 4 with the biggest improvement in their median score.
  
  
• Wes Welker is an interesting case here. At first glance this chart might appear to indicate Wes Welker thrives in a non-PPR format, based on the change in his median score. But a careful look at his stats indicates that his ranking at almost all percentiles is significantly improved in the PPR format. We happen to rank by the median here, but it is clear that Wes Welker is helped in a PPR format – even though his median score happens to rank worse in the PPR format. This emphasizes the fact that these stats require some care in interpretation.
  
  
• Plaxico Burress, Justin Gage, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, and Lee Evans stand out here as having a worse median rank in a PPR system than in a non-PPR. If you look at the distribution of their scores as a whole, Justin Gage is hurt the most across the board at most percentiles by moving to a PPR format.

What About This Year?

• Santonio Holmes has a history of getting less targets than his peers but doing a lot with the few targets he gets. This drives his having higher value in non-PPR leagues. I anticipate that will change this year, and that Santonio Holmes will start getting more targets. This is driven in part by the aging of Hines Ward and also by the departure of Nate Washington. With that in mind, I think he will move from being a receiver who performs much better in a non-PPR format to a receiver who performs similar in both.
  
  
• Wes Welker has historically gotten a lot of targets as Tom Brady’s “dump-off” option in the slot. I see no reason to expect that will change drastically this year. The addition of Joey Galloway could cut into his targets a bit, but I anticipate Wes Welker will continue to be significantly more valuable in a PPR format.
  
  
• Derrick Mason has historically racked up a lot of short catches, which have driven his higher value in PPR leagues. He’s had some odd pre-season activity (which included a brief retirement), and the receivers behind him have some injury issues. But I think he will continue to be more valuable in PPR leagues than non-PPR, as I don’t see a drastic change in his role this year.
  
  
• Vincent Jackson has historically performed better in non-PPR leagues than PPR leagues. I see an increase in his targets this season as his role in the Chargers receiving corps expands, and I see him performing similarly in PPR and non-PPR leagues.
  
  
• Laveranues Coles has historically performed similarly in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. I see him emerging as a receiver that performs better in PPR leagues than non-PPR leagues in his new role with the Bengals. I see him being the target of a lot of short passes from Carson Palmer this year, as he tries to fill part of the void T.J. Houshmandzadeh left.

Conclusion

The scoring system of your league matters. When choosing players in a draft it’s important to be aware of the scoring system. Scoring systems have two common structures – one awards points for receptions and one doesn’t. What this article investigated was WR consistency in non-PPR leagues and receivers whose value is highly dependent on the scoring structure.

For most receivers, it’s doesn’t make a big difference either way. We highlighted some receivers who perform much better historically in a PPR format (like Wes Welker and Derrick Mason). We also highlighted some who perform better historically in a non-PPR (like Vincent Jackson and Santonio Holmes).

In addition to this, we have highlighted some changes we anticipate this year with respect to specific players and their relative value in PPR vs. non-PPR leagues in the future.

If you are in a few leagues and one is PPR and one is not, be sure to adjust your WR rankings accordingly for your draft. Hopefully this article gives you some perspective that will help with those adjustments.