To the surprise of few, the grizzled vet returns to the Steelers
for one last run. Joining the head coach who got him to his one
and only Superbowl, the 42-year-old didn't embarrass himself last
season. He tossed a respectable 24 touchdowns in the first sub-500
attempt healthy season since 2010, but was embarrassed in a Wild
Card Round exit. No longer able to carry an offense, look for
McCarthy to craft a passing attack to fit what Rodgers can still
do, sling an accurate, catchable ball. He'll have towering, large
catch radius receivers to throw to in Pittman and Metcalf, and
versatile 2nd-round rookie Germie Bernard in the slot. The offensive
line has major questions on the right size as they break in a
rookie tackle, and a two-headed backfield is likely to be leaned
on. Rodgers is going to be as comfortable in a system as he has
been in quite some time, but father time relegates him to the
back end of QB2 status.
As expected, when Najee Harris left in free agency, Warren reached
career highs in 2025 with 1291 total yards, and eight touchdowns.
Although he split time with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren was an elite
FLEX player in most formats. and probably held teams together
as an RB2. His efficiency and advanced metrics continue to impress,
and his annual ascension has been impressive, but former McCarthy
runner Rico Dowdle was added to throw cold water on any further
upside for Warren. Dowdle was dominant at times with the Panthers
last season, and is a much more complete player than the departing
Gainwell. He's undoubtedly going to make this a more balanced
backfield, and that's a hit to Warren's value. Look for Warren
to dip more into the 25-30 range at the position, giving him RB3/FLEX
vibes.
After a pitstop in Carolina, Dowdle joins the Steelers and his
former head coach on a two-year deal. Dowdle was unstoppable at
times for the Panthers once he got his shot, tearing up the NFL
in Weeks 5 and 6 where he combined for 389 yards on the ground.
From Week 5 on he was a clear RB1, carrying fantasy teams along
the way. Last season was very reminiscent of his last time with
McCarthy, as he ran for over 1,000 yards with Dallas. Early last
season he had to leapfrog Chuba Hubbard, and I expect that repeats
itself with Warren this season. Dowdle is a better pure runner,
and has impressive efficiency numbers as well. The committee approach
is going to limit both guys, but Dowdle has the bigger touchdown
upside, and brings similar ability in the passing game. If I have
to add someone in this backfield, it's going to be Dowdle, as
an upside RB3.
Stuck in a low volume passing attack led by an ancient quarterback,
Metcalf struggled to maintain consistent fantasy value in his
first year in black and gold. Sure, he had his moments, but his
freak athletic profile just hasn't resulted in numbers you can
count on. Rodgers returns, but to make matters worse, Pittsburgh
added Michael Pittman Jr. this offseason. Like a cramped nest,
this extra mouth to feed means less for Metcalf. He's due for
some positive touchdown regression, but there isn't much of a
path to more targets. Coming off his worst statistical season
since his rookie year (59-850-6), it's hard to envision an uptick
in production, leaving Metcalf as more of a low-end WR3.
While Daniel Jones was alive, Pittman was a reliable touchdown
dependent WR2, but like the rest of the Colt's skill position
players, the offense took a nosedive when Jones tore his Achilles.
Overall, Pittman has been a solid receiving option in his six-year
career, but he no longer has clear alpha status with the Steelers.
He's far removed from the 156 targets he saw in 2023, but excels
in the short area and with an old quarterback on his last rodeo,
these might be the most valuable targets. Metcalf makes the splash
plays, but there's a good bet Pittman leads the team in receptions.
I'm just not sure it's enough to elevate him beyond his WR3 ceiling.
The committee approach from former coordinator Arthur Smith certainly
contributed to Freiermuth's miserable numbers last season. Mostly
irrelevant for fantasy purposes in 2025, Freiermuth becomes the
clear pass catching option among the tight end group with Mike
McCarthy running the show. The whole offense should be more efficient
and pass friendly, but with the addition of Michael Pittman, and
another layer of dust on his quarterback, there's unlikely to
be a significant fantasy renaissance for Freimuth. He'll enter
the season as a mid-level TE2, or bye-week fill in.
