New coaching staff for the first time in a decade, age, injuries
catching up, whatever it was, it all added up to the worst statistical
16-game season in Rodgers’s career. Toss in the fact that
the Packers got mauled in the NFC Championship Game, and then
TRADED UP for his replacement in the 1st round of the draft, and
you wouldn't blame Rodgers for being a bit salty about the events
of the last year.
It was very strange seeing the future Hall of Famer finishing
the season toward the bottom of the QB1 rankings, but perhaps
that's what the fantasy world should get used to. A few things
are evident from the new front office and coaching regime. This
offense is more run-game centric than they have been at any point
in his career and they are adding personnel that matches this
philosophy. No significant money or draft capital was spent on
the passing game. Aaron Jones was one of the best all-around backs
in the NFL last season, and the Pack spent a 2nd round pick on
running back AJ Dillon from Boston College. Rookie Head Coach
Matt LaFleur installed a run game that saw the Packers go from
the fewest rushing attempts in the league in 2018 to the 13th
most in 2019. And you honestly can’t argue with the results. In
his first season LaFleur led Green Bay to a 13-3 season and an
appearance in the NFC title game.
2019 was the first steps in the remaking of the roster and offensive
philosophy of the Packers. They are going to be a more balanced
offense, and Rodgers will have to improve on his efficiency if
he’s going to see a jump in stats over last year. At times last
season he looked very uncomfortable, but I expect a second year
in the system will help, as will a full healthy season from Davante
Adams - remember, he missed 4 games and the receivers behind him
were not ready. I’m not ready to write off Rodgers as a fantasy
stud just yet, as he is going to play with a giant cinderblock
on his shoulder this season and has plenty of talent left to dominate.
There are some incredibly talented, high-upside young players
at the position, but I still take Rodgers and his weekly high
floor to give me an advantage. The wheels might not be what they
used to be, but that arm looks fine.
I’m going to bet that Jones won a bunch of fantasy championships
last year, as 1,500 total yards, 19 touchdown seasons will have
a tendency to do that. Held back by health and opportunity his
first two years in the league, Jones exploded last year, becoming
the centerpiece of a 13-3 playoff team. His 16 rushing touchdowns
doubled 2018’s total, and tied Derrick Henry for the NFL lead.
His monster Weeks 5, 8, and 10 likely put fantasy owners in the
win column, but were balanced out by his mega duds in Weeks 6,
12, and 13.
So while 2019 was a revelation for the former 5th round pick,
what does 2020 bring? Oddly, some question marks. Of all the backs
who finished in the top-5 in standard scoring last season, his
285 total touches were by far the fewest, which means he was incredibly
efficient and touchdown dependent, which are two areas that are
exceedingly difficult to duplicate. So if the efficiency numbers
are a good bet to regress, that means in order for Jones to repeat
his top-3 finish, he’s going to need more touches. Well bad news,
the Packers used a 2nd round pick on running back AJ Dillion,
and while not suited for a three-down role, is sure to eat into
the rushing total pie. With last-year’s back-up Jamaal Williams
still around, Jones’s understudies could be looking at nearly
200 carries between them, and with the Pack’s improved passing
game, I just don’t see a way that Jones tops the 236 carries from
last season.
So listen, I’m more than happy to have Jones anchor my running backs
as an RB1, but a finish in the 8-12 ranking seems much more realistic.
The selection of Jordan
Love in the first round rightly opened some eyes. But flying
under the radar was the selection of Dillion in the 2nd round,
despite having a 25-year old stud in Aaron Jones already on the
roster. As I said earlier in this column, the new regime in Green
Bay is looking long term. The selection of Love and Dillion are
luxury picks for the future, not assets that will move the needle
toward a title in 2020. Another strong season by Jones, who is
in the final year of his rookie deal, likely means Green Bay gets
priced out of his services long term. Dillion is a bargaining
chip they can use or an alternative they can fall back on.
This is a fantasy article, not a front office simulation, so what,
if any value does Dillion bring to your team? Well if you are a
Jones owner, I think he’s definitely a priority handcuff. His elite
athleticism and size, (4.5 40-yard dash time) and production at
Boston College certainly shows he’s got a chance to be a starting
caliber player. But the fact he didn’t break many big plays, or
catch many passes (21 in his B.C. career) means that he’s likely
slated for a two-down role at the NFL level. If Jones were to miss
time, Dillion would immediately have RB2 value, but would be looking
at a committee situation with veteran Jamaal Williams. Unless I’m
a Jones owner I’m probably not picking Dillion in a non-dynasty
league, but if he’s still sitting there late in your draft he’s
worth a roster stash.
The added emphasis on the running game and using backs as receiving
threats certainly helped Williams greatly last season. Despite
playing second fiddle to starter Aaron Jones, Williams racked
up over 700 total yards and 6 touchdowns, numbers good enough
to ensure fantasy roster value the entire season. And while he
should hold on to No.2 duties at least to start to the year, 2nd
rounder Dillion us sure to eventually eat into his rushing opportunities.
Williams is a solid role player, but offers little upside as a
playmaker, as his 4.3 yards-per-carry average last season was
a career high. Bolstered by a surely to regress 5 receiving touchdowns
in 2019, it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Jones and
Dillon stay healthy, and Williams comes close to his numbers last
season. Because the offseason is and will be tricky, experience
will give WIlliams the leg up to start the season, but expect
to see him on waivers in many leagues by mid-year.
There isn’t much examination necessary when it comes to
Davante Adams. On the cusp of breaking out for years prior to
his monster 2018 season, 2019 looked to be the year that Adams
planted his flag firmly in consistent WR1 territory. While missing
four games with a leg injury suppressed his final numbers, he
still remained one of the more dominant receivers in the game.
His 10.8 FPts/G average put him in the top-10 in standard leagues,
and his 83 receptions in only 12 games put him on a 110 reception
pace. He then bullied defenses at the end of the season, finishing
with four 100-yard games in his final five, including dazzling
numbers in the playoffs, where he gave Seattle and San Francisco
fits.
Adams is the undisputed No.1 option in this Green Bay passing
game. Most importantly he has the trust and rapport with Rodgers
that ensures he’ll be the first look in most situations.
Adams is one of the more sure things in the fantasy world, and
will be one of the first two or three receivers off the board
in every format.
The drop off from Davante Adams is steep and swift. Widely expected
to add a difference-making receiver via free agency or the draft,
the Packers bucked conventional wisdom and instead opted for reclamation
project Devin Funchess. The former Panther by way of the University
of Michigan, Funchess had a tremendous third pro season when he
popped off for a 63-840-8 line. He regressed the next season,
and a broken collarbone basically stole his entire 2019.
Going into 2020, Green Bay is relying on the resurgence of Funchess
and the continued development of undrafted free agent Allen Lazard
to bolster the passing game. I actually really like the Funchess
addition, as he gives the pass offense another big body (6’4’’,
225) and red zone threat. One reason Jones and Williams combined
to catch 8 touchdown passes was the lack of a player who could
post up and make contested catches near the goal line. Teams would
blanket Adams and take their chances everywhere else. With Adams
and the offensive philosophy limiting his targets, Funchess will
have to find the endzone 5+ times to return value, but I really
think he has a chance to surprise. Funchess is going undrafted
in early mocks and that’s even more reason to take notice. With
little established talent in the passing game beyond Adams, I’d
be more than happy to nab Funchess at the end of the draft.
A pleasant surprise for the Packers last season, the former UDFA
signed a one-year extension this offseason. Likely thrust into
a role he wasn’t quite ready for due to injury and roster limitations,
Lazard did provide a spark at times in his first season as a starter.
With a similar build, but more physical game, I expect that Funchess
will push Lazard down a peg on the depth chart. Early mock drafts
have Lazard being taken before Funchess, but I expect that might
flip-flop come late summer. With some other young talent in the
receiving room vying for scraps behind Adams, I’m not sure this
offense can really support more than one consistent fantasy option
behind the big dog. For my money I’m going to put my stock in
Funchess and his previous (albeit limited) production and draft
pedigree.
Man the NFC North has been a wasteland of fantasy tight end talent!
While Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota have some potential talented
young guys, I can’t say that this is a position of strength for
this division. Sternberger, the team’s 3rd round pick in 2019,
played only a sniff last year because of an ankle injury, registering
just 4 targets in a season he didn’t play in until Week 14. If
not for the injury, many thought Sternberger would have been an
upgrade on former starter Jimmy Graham, so here we are in 2020,
as Sternberger finds himself atop the depth chart. If you are
looking for a deep sleeper at tight end, look no further.
Sternberger is a smooth as silk route runner with an expansive
route tree and soft hands. He was dominant in his final season
as Texas A&M, compiling a 48-832-10 line. That 17.3 receiving
average tells me he can get down the field in a hurry, and on
an offense that is begging for receiving threats to take pressure
off of Adams, Sternberger is up for it. Green Bay has talked up
their young tight end all off-season, so if he can prove to be
a capable enough blocker, and earn the trust of his quarterback,
he could catch upwards of 50 passes. Those chances would be plenty
enough to bring him to fantasy relevance for a bargain basement
price.
