By his own outlandish standards (and those of his fantasy owners),
Aaron Rodgers was a major disappointment in 2015. Despite being
burned by him consistently during the second half of that year,
I thought the return of Jordy Nelson would help return Rodgers
to the fantasy quarterback throne in 2016.
Let’s be honest, there were a few games to start the 2016
season where it looked like the 2015 malaise, might be a harbinger
that Rodgers could be on the downfall. Both he and the Packer
offense couldn’t find rhythm during a dicey season opener
against Jacksonville, and he played terribly in a loss against
the Vikings in Week 2. He predictably carved up the Lions, but
then two mediocre weeks followed. But a Week 6 victory over the
Bears, where Rodgers went for nearly 30 fantasy points was the
beginning of a lights out run that saw A-Rod score 30-plus points
in six of the final ten regular season games.
While the running game all but disappeared, Rodgers was forced
to take his team on his back, and luckily for his fantasy owners,
he’s still strong enough to do it. He single handedly kept the
Packers competitive while their defense was melting, and the running
game was held together with street free agents and former wide
receivers. The return of Nelson to his Pro-Bowl form, and the
long awaited emergence of Davante Adams gave Rodgers big, athletic
pass catchers to throw to at all levels of the field. He finished
the season with his 4th, 40 total touchdown season, good for the
top spot among fantasy quarterbacks.
Rodgers enters his age 33 season, better than ever. He’ll add
Super Bowl winning Martellus Bennett to the mix at tight end,
should have an improved running game, and barring injury, has
the fast track to being the top overall at his position once again.
I do think they’ll be a bit of regression in the yardage and touchdown
department, but if you want a shot at one of the surest picks
in all of fantasy, take the plunge.
Due to a ridiculous amount of injuries, the former Stanford Cardinal
was thrust into meaningful snaps at running back, just as he was
posing back to back 12-plus target games at receiver. Green Bay
officially switched his position when it was clear James Starks
and Eddie Lacy wouldn't be returning from injury. And while he
never quite took on a “feature back” role, he was effective with
his ground touches (averaging a silly 5.9 yards per carry average),
and remained part of the passing game plan.
Montgomery is one of the most polarizing players in fantasy this
season. Some writers believe he can grow into the role, and develop
into the feature back on one of the best offenses in the league.
Some feel the drafting of three running backs show that Green
Bay sees Montgomery as only a complement in the backfield. I feel
like if the Packers get their way, rookie runner, and fellow BYU
alum Jamaal Williams will take over as the main runner (Eddie
Lacy role) with Montgomery playing the complement (James Starks
role). Mike Krueger has Montgomery as a
low end RB2, and I think that’s his ceiling. The Packers weren't
scared to give Lacy all of the work his rookie year, and I think
if/when Williams proves he’s capable, he’ll take over, and Montgomery
will play second fiddle. I certainly wouldn’t be scared to take
Montgomery, and I’m particularly interested in pairing him with
Doug Martin, as I feel the Packers runner will have more value
early in the year than he will later, and you can take advantage
while Martin serves his suspension. I do think if you invest heavily
in #88, you need to handcuff him with Williams.
While he lacks elite size, speed, or athleticism (hence the 4th
round pick designation), Williams tape stands out, showing a nifty
one-cut runner who churns out tough yards, and has exceptional
vision and leg drive. Despite missing three games last season,
Williams still eclipsed the 1,300 yard mark to go along with 12
touchdowns. On most NFL offenses he’s probably at best a
low-upside back-up, but on Green Bay, I think he has some special
potential to carve out fantasy value. Much like former Packer
James Starks, Williams is a smart, versatile back who can be the
main ball carrier if called upon. His lack of elusiveness is made
up for the fact he’ll never see run blitzes or stacked boxes,
and can instead use his instincts and field vision to find small
creases and get to the next level of the defense. His size and
power should make him a favorite at the goal line as well. With
Lacy and Starks the Packers had a versatile 1-2 punch that could
whittle down the clock, but make splash plays as well. I think
Williams has a chance to contribute to the Pack, as well as your
fantasy team this year, and is a fantastic late round flier if
you can grab him there.
WR Jordy
Nelson (2016 WR Rank – No.1, 13.1 FPts/G)
There was a time when an ACL injury to a 30-year old receiver
would be a near death knell. Oh, how times have changed. Not only
did Nelson return to the top of the receiver rankings by the end
of 2016, he did so in dramatic fashion, scoring 14 touchdowns,
and gobbling up 152 targets. His 97 receptions were only 1 off
his career best, and while he saw a near 20% reduction in his
yardage totals from his last healthy season, he most likely provided
one of the best values at receiver last year.
With such a stellar return to form, it’s clear Nelson isn’t
going to be a gamble pick in 2017. He’s another year removed
from the injury, played a full 16 games, and only got better as
the season wore on. I think it’s likely that he’s
reached his career highs, and he’s a step slower, but he’s
Aaron Rodgers favorite target, especially in the red zone, and
has such elite body control and route running ability that he’s
a lock to finish in the top-10. I do expect him to fall a few
pegs, especially with Green Bay having a more balanced offense,
and the addition of Martellus Bennett, who could soak up a few
of those red zone scores. He’s great value in standard and
PPR leagues alike, and is someone I’d be happy to have as
my WR1.
After two disappointing years to start his career, Davante Adams
burst onto the scene last year with a 75-997-12 line, pushing
him from a scrap on the fantasy heap, to a top-10 scorer at his
position. He set career highs across the board, and his 12 scores
were second in the NFL only to teammate Jordy Nelson. Adams caught
a touchdown for every six receptions, and was a stud in non-PPR
leagues due to the touchdowns. So are his 2016 numbers indicative
of what to expect going forward, or an anomaly? I tend to think
of all the receivers who finished in the top-10 in standard scoring
leagues, Adams is least likely to repeat. It’s going to be very
hard to duplicate the touchdown total, and with a full stable
of healthy skill position players, the ball should be spread around
more. Randall Cobb has never come close to his 12 touchdown season
in 2014, and should be more of a factor if he can play a full
complement of games. Adams has a great size/speed combination,
and despite a bevy of drops, seems to finally have earned some
measure of trust from his QB. I really do think a special set
of circumstances helped Adams last year, and those are unlikely
to repeat themselves. With a few more mouths to feed, and a more
balanced offensive attack, I like Adams more as a low tier WR2,
than the WR1 he finished as last season.
After another disappointing year dealing with injury and inconsistency,
it’s fair to wonder what you can expect from the former
Wildcat as he enters his 7th year as a pro. His statistics tailed
off frighteningly for the second-straight year, as he amassed
only a 60-610-4 line. He was never quite the same after missing
a Week 8 game against the Falcons, as an out-of-nowhere 30-point
game against the Giants in the playoffs was way too late to help
fantasy owners. I think it’s fair to assume that Cobb has
dropped to the third option in this pass attack. Due to his game
and size, he has trouble producing when dinged up, and hasn’t
gotten back to being the red zone threat his was earlier in his
career. I think this offense can absolutely support a third fantasy
receiver, and assuming health, Cobb has a WR3 floor. I know I’ve
been a bit negative here so far, but parts of me actually like
Cobb better than Adams, especially considering where you can get
each of them in the draft. The signing of Bennett is going to
open up the middle of the field and Cobb he could return to the
80-plus catch area if he stays healthy.
Despite a highlight reel play that will forever be the bane of
Cowboys fans, the Jared Cook experiment in Green Bay came to a
quick end. In comes Martellus Bennett, coming of a Super Bowl
victory, to provide the Packers with a steady veteran presence
who’s two-way game will fit perfectly with what his team
wants to do. Some guys just have all the luck, as Bennett goes
from one Hall of Fame quarterback to another. Bennett gives Aaron
Rodgers something he hasn’t had since Jermichael Finley
was forced to retire. Bennett is athletic enough to beat linebackers,
big enough to challenge DBs and savvy enough to get open in the
red zone. He had a fantastic first half of the year in 2016, before
dual ankle injuries sapped him of his play making ability. He
still managed 700 yards and 7 touchdowns, which constituted an
average season. I really think those 2016 numbers are the floor
for Bennett in this offense. The tight end position is a mess
again, and Bennett possesses one of the safer floors at the position.
He won’t catch 90 passes like Travis Kelce, or score 14
touchdowns like Gronk might, but he’s going to work very
well with Rodgers, and give fantasy owners a solid TE1 option.
