Joe Flacco has turned one fortunate Super Bowl run and a series
of mediocre seasons into a highly lucrative career. Maybe because
it’s his quiet nature, or humble beginnings as a Blue Hen
from Delaware, but Flacco seems to dodge much of the criticism of
other highly paid quarterbacks are subjected to. He throws a pretty
deep ball, but turns the ball over too much compared with how many
touchdown passes he adds.
He was the same ho-hum quarterback he’s been most of his career
last year, throwing 20 touchdown passes to 15 interceptions, even
though he set a career high in yardage with 4,317. I’ve said for
years that Flacco is a better quarterback when his pass attempts
are limited. Unfortunately low volume generally means low production
for fantasy. Compounding his general malaise is an early season
back injury that has cost him the first few weeks of camp. It doesn’t
look to be a long term concern, but back injuries are notoriously
fickle, especially ones that are happening to 6’6’’ statues in the
pocket. Even with the addition of Jeremy Maclin, Flacco’s receivers
don’t jump off the page, and the upside in his game just isn’t there.
Outside of two-quarterback or very deep standard leagues, Flacco
isn’t worth much roster consideration.
The plan for Danny Woodhead has likely changed greatly from the
day he was signed by the Ravens in the off-season. Coming off a
torn ACL in Week 2 of the 2016 season, Woodhead was brought in to
spell young runners Kenneth
Dixon and Terrance West, and provide a reliable 3rd down target.
Since then, Dixon has been lost for the year with a torn up knee,
and the road to meaningful snaps only goes through a guy who was
dumped by the Cleveland Browns.
During his entire career, teams intend for Woodhead to only be a
role player, but when coaches see the kind of consistency and ability
he provides, he ends up being a big part of an offense. Take 2015
for example. The Chargers took Melvin Gordon with a high draft pick,
but Woodhead out-touchdowned him 9-0 and had over 1,000 total yards
to Gordon’s 813. Even in the one full week he played last
year, Woodhead scored a touchdown and had over 100 total yards while
Gordon was barely noticeable.
John Harbaugh is a coach who respects veterans who can get the job
done, even if they don’t provide game breaking ability. Terrance
West is a better running back than Woodhead, but the little dynamo
from Chadron State is a better football player. In standard leagues
Woodhead’s lack of rushing attempts will hurt, but in PPR
leagues I think he provides tremendous value. The big knock on Woodhead
is age, and the fact he's missed most of the games in two of the
last three years, but I’ll be more than happy to snap him
up in my drafts and have a high floor guy at a low price.
During his second year in Baltimore, after being cast off from Cleveland,
West became a surprising borderline RB2 in fantasy last year. West
has been part of the multi-year turnover at the position for the
Ravens, as they haven’t been able to find a franchise runner
in quite some time. It was a mild surprise that the Ravens didn’t
add a runner in the draft, and their only meaningful move at the
position was adding Danny Woodhead. West enters 2017 firmly atop
the depth chart, something no one saw coming. After a decent first
half of the season, he seemed to lose favor with the coaching staff,
and it seemed like Kenneth Dixon would take over. Well, Dixon is
gone for the year, West has had a good off-season, and suddenly
the 4th year back out of Towson is someone fantasy owners have to
pay attention to. Someone has to run the ball in Baltimore, and
with Woodhead more of a receiver, and only disappointments and mediocre
talent behind him, West could be on track for a repeat of his standard
league RB2 finish. He should surpass 200 carries, so 800 yards and
6 touchdowns isn’t outside the realm of possibility.
After an injury slowed 2016, the Chiefs decided that Maclin’s
production/pay ration simply wasn't good enough so in a move that
surprised many, they released him. The Ravens, in dire need of legit
offensive threats, signed him to a two-year deal. Maclin has also
been a bit of a fantasy mystery in his career. He had two back-to-back
big seasons in his last year with the Eagles and first year with
Kansas City. But for most of the remainder of his career he’s
struggled to truly live up to his 1st round pick status. He joins
a Ravens receiver group that has one dimensional players (Wallace)
and a third-year guy still finding his way in the league (Perriman).
The Ravens lost a ton of targets when Steve Smith retired and Dennis
Pitta suffered to what amounts to a career ending injury. Perriman
and Wallace are purely outside players, so it looks like Maclin
will find most of his work in the slot. Assuming he’s over
his 2016 injury, Maclin has a real chance to lead this team in receptions,
but I’m not excited about his yardage and touchdown potential.
I don’t think the Raven’s offense will be very good,
and Flacco’s back injury hasn’t helped the chemistry
building process. I see Maclin as nothing more than a low ceiling
WR3, and not someone I’ll be overly excited to add to my team,
but someone who could anchor the back end of your fantasy receivers.
I really missed on my analysis of Wallace last off-season. I didn’t
think he’d have enough chances in this offense to have much
fantasy appeal, but low and behold, he ended up with a strong 72-1107-4
line, good enough for a Top 25 finish at his position. These numbers
were the best for Wallace since his time in Miami, and he’s
definitely a better fit in Baltimore than any of his previous stops
outside Pittsburgh. But while Wallace’s final numbers look
strong, a closer look at the stats reveal that most of his production
came in the first half of the season. After Week 9 he failed to
find the endzone, surpass 62 yards, or even approach double digit
fantasy points. After being a strong WR2 in the first 9 games, Wallace
was cut bait down the stretch. Inconsistency has always been a problem
with Wallace, so he’s the perfect WR3 to pair with low floor
guys. I think the addition of Maclin takes a little shine off of
Wallace, and if Perriman can develop the way the Raven’s hope,
Wallace could really struggle to find much fantasy value.
Outside of Kevin White, no young receiver has had the start of his
career derailed more than Perriman. After missing all of his rookie
year, and most of camp last year, he had a very quiet first season.
Buried behind a mountain of veteran pass-catchers, Perriman was
hardly part of the weekly game plan. With two big targets gone,
the Ravens desperately need Perriman to be more reliable, as he
should have more chances to produce this season. By most accounts
his off-season has been fantastic, but Perriman needs to stay healthy,
something that's already been a problem in camp so far. Although
he may not finish with gaudy numbers, Perriman still has a ton of
upside. If he can gain and keep the trust of Flacco, Perriman has
a chance to surprise. Maclin’s addition obviously hurts his
value, but right now he’s a very low risk pick, and if the
moons align right, has the chance to provide value.
I’ll save you some time... look elsewhere for a fantasy tight
end. The Ravens are in such dire shape at the position that they
are currently relying on 36 year-old coming off a season ending
Achilles injury. Baltimore has used up all it’s good will
when they were able to get production out of another veteran (Steve
Smith) who was coming off an Achilles injury of his own. The chances
lightning strikes twice is minimal, and although Watson had a resurgent
season the last time he was healthy, I have to assume that before
too long the Ravens add a veteran (Gary Barnidge) to compete at
the position.
