Last offseason Cutler was the talk of Chicago after securing a long
term extension to be the triggerman for Marc Trestman’s voluminous
passing game. Just a year later Trestman is gone, the Bears are
in rebuilding mode, and Cutler’s perpetual scowl might as well be
on kitschy wanted posters on the streets of Michigan Avenue. As
Cutler’s struggles as a decision maker and field general are well
documented, missed in the shuffle of Chicago’s lost season last
year was the fact he had perhaps the finest fantasy season of his
career, and that folks, is what we’re here for!
Cutler set a career high with 30 total touchdowns and a 66.0 completion
percentage with a personal second best 3,812 yards passing. Sure
he turned the ball over way too many times (28) but that’s who he’s
always been. He’s also always been a borderline QB1 when healthy,
and that’s exactly what he finished as last year. He was a fairly
consistent fantasy scorer in 2014 (only two games below 15 fantasy
points) and probably was a decent stop-gap starter for the teams
that needed him. So while his play should continue to make him a
decent fantasy option, the thing that worries me are the loss of
Trestman’s pass-first schemes, and Brandon Marshall. Although their
bromance soured last year, Marshall was Cutler’s security blanket,
especially in the red zone. Replacing Marshall is the amazingly
gifted rookie Kevin White from West Virginia (more on White below).
Rookie being the key word, as Marshall was a smart veteran versed
in getting open and manipulating defenders. Luckily Cutler still
has the giant mitts of Alshon Jeffrey, the seam skills of Martellus
Bennett, and the always reliable Matt Forte. Trestman’s pass offense
is gone, replaced by the capable Adam Gase from Denver. But in comes
conservative head coach John Fox who will work to make the running
game a bigger staple of the offense to help hide a terrible defense
that also led to Cutler’s passing attempts being inflated. Overall
I see a fairly noticeable drop in attempts for Cutler in an attempt
to mitigate his mistakes, and keep Chicago’s offense more vanilla.
Cutler still has the arm talent, attitude, and weapons to be a fantasy
asset, just nothing more than… you guessed it, a borderline QB1
in 12-14 team leagues.
Despite a significant drop in running game numbers across the
board, Forte’s No.4 overall running back finish was buoyed
by a ridiculous 102 catches for 808 yards and 4 touchdowns - receiving
numbers that would make any slot receiver in the league blush
with pride. In PPR leagues he was a god, and was pretty darn excellent
in standard and touchdown heavy leagues as well. But while there
were several factors in his favor going into last season, there
may be just as many factors against him going into 2015.
The biggest hit to Forte’s numbers will be the change in
offensive system. With Trestman at the helm, Chicago targeted
their running backs fifth-most in the league. Denver, guided by
Adam Gase came in at 23rd. Before Trestman’s arrival in
Chicago, Forte was still a dual threat, but had never surpassed
the 64 catches he had as a rookie. Look for his reception total
to fall somewhere in the 55-65 range. Was it an aberration or
age-related decline that lead to Forte’s disappointing 3.9
yards-per-carry average? While more of a vision and balance guided
runner, Forte should age well as he enters his eighth NFL season.
He enters the final year of his contract, and baring pre-season
extension, could very well be playing his final season for the
Bears. One thing is for certain, the Bears will continue to rely
on Forte to anchor their run game, and as a true three-down workhorse,
has plenty of payoff as an RB1, even if he winds up in the 6-10
overall range.
Forte owners, take a long look at your handcuff options. When
you’re done being underwhelmed, starting making alternate plans.
Ka’Deem Carey, the holder from 2014, might not even be on the
roster come Week 1, as he failed to generate any meaningful playing
time behind a heavily worked Forte. Jacquizz Rodgers, the free
agent addition from Atlanta, is a stout 5’6’’ 200lbs, but failed
to top 4.0 ypc during his time with the Falcons, and offers marginal
value as a passing game back. Jeremy Langford, the 4th round rookie
from Michigan State might be the back with the most potential
fantasy value. While his pre-draft measurable were outstanding
(4.42 40 time), as were his career totals for Michigan State (2,967
yards and 40 touchdowns), Langford lasted until the 4th round
because he doesn’t run with power behind his 6’ frame, and wasn’t
much of a dual threat at MSU with only 12 receptions in his final
year. Langford offers Forte owners their best handcuff option,
but even if he finds himself in the 1a role, John Fox has a long
and annoying history of a committee based attack. Langford has
benefitted from Forte sitting out OTAs by getting 1st team snaps,
so this will certainly help his development, but I can’t see investing
a draft pick on Langford in anything other than dynasty leagues.
Jeffery’s sequel to his breakout 2013 was successful at the fantasy
box office, as his 85-1,133-10 line was good enough for a WR1
finish in most standard leagues. He continued to show a refinement
to his game, and the strong body control and point of attack skills
that has kept his catch rate at 60 percent over the past two seasons.
He’s built good chemistry over the last few seasons with Cutler,
and he better have the trust of the gunslinger, as Jeffery slides
into the No.1 receiving role for the Bears after the departure
of Brandon Marshall.
With two consecutive WR1 finishes, Jeffery is no flash in the
pan. It seems like a no brainer his production will increase or
at the very least, stay the same now that he’s the team’s
undisputed No.1 passing game option. He will fill the role of
Demaryius Thomas in the Adam Gase pass offense, but I have to
wonder just how effective he’ll be with most of the defensive
focus on him. He’s enjoyed dominating alongside Brandon
Marshall for two years, feasting on single coverage. He was solid,
if not spectacular as the main man in weeks 13-17 last year when
Marshall suffered a rib injury. He failed to top 75 yards, and
his catch percentage actually dipped to a lackluster 41 percent.
He did manage to score twice, and this is where I think Jeffery
will continue to produce. While I foresee a possible dip in receptions
and yards, Jeffery’s size and catch radius make him a brute
in the red zone. He is a must start receiver in any format, but
might linger right on the cusp of WR1 status, especially if Kevin
White’s development accelerates.
If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough, you’ll remember
a time when the only rookies a fantasy owner cared about were
running backs. Owners that have held to the tenant of avoiding
rookie passers and receivers have missed out on tremendous value
in recent seasons. This wasn’t more evident than last year, when
five rookies pass catchers finished in the top-25. This stat alone
gives fantasy owners enough reason to stand up and take notice.
The other is a freakish set of athletic gifts that allow White
to dominate speedy defensive backs with his size (6’3’’-215),
or bigger corners with his speed (4.3). White has the draft pedigree
and athleticism to be a valuable fantasy asset. He will clearly
enter 2015 as the No.2 or No.3 option in the Chicago passing game.
Not being the focal point of the offense is not a fantasy negative.
In fact, it could be a boon. With teammate Alshon Jeffrey soaking
up the defensive attention, White can get acclimated to the NFL
game with a roomier secondary. Mike Evans and Jordan Mathews were
able to become fantasy starters without being the No.1 options
on their offenses, and they each had very sketchy quarterbacks
doing the throwing. White is going to have fantasy value, whether
it’s of the WR2 variety or the WR4 variety will depend on his
development, and the breakdown of targets. Eddie Royal is an effective
slot receiver that is sure to be heavily involved, and Cutler
has been known to lock-onto his must trusted options. If White
can master the route trees of the Gase offense, he’ll have a chance
to produce early. My bet is White has much more fantasy value
during the second half of the year making him a player I’d watch
closely, but be careful not to overdraft.
He may be a mercurial headache, but gosh did Martellus Bennett
produce at an elite level in 2014. Finishing first among tight
ends in receptions (90) second in targets (128), and third in
yards (916), Bennett had by far the best season of his seven-year
career. After sitting out OTAs in an attempt to broker a raise,
Bennett and the Bears seemed poised to continue their relationship
into 2015. Fantasy speaking, the addition of reliable slot receiver
Royal, will mean a drop in receptions and yards for Bennett, but
the touchdown opportunities should remain for the 6’6 mammoth.
Bennett should remain a value fantasy asset in a muddled tight
end position, but expect TE1 production closer to his number No.10
finish in 2013.
