Fantasy Football Today - fantasy football rankings, cheatsheets, and information
A Fantasy Football Community!




 Log In  | Sign Up  |  Contact      






Colby Cavaliere | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Fantasy Impact - Graham Remains Top Tier Tight End, Despite Trade
3/13/15

 

Jimmy Graham

Graham's fantasy value may take a slight hit, but it certainly won't freefall now that he's a Seahawk.


Every offseason there is one move that seems to defy logic; some unproven commodity gets a boatload of cash, or some veteran all-pro gets his walking papers. And once in a blue moon a trade goes down that makes a slight splash in the fantasy world. Maybe an aging veteran running back gets new life in an up-tempo offense (Darren Sproles in 2014) or a quarterback brings a steady hand to a rudderless ship (Matt Schaub). Ok, fine, so Schaub was a disaster, but you get the idea. But the first day of the 2015 league year saw one of the biggest fantasy relevant trades in quite some time when Jimmy Graham was dealt to the Super Bowl runner-up Seattle Seahawks.

Fantasy Impact

Unarguably the best fantasy player at his position for several years (sorry Gronk), and possibly the most valuable fantasy asset in the game, Jimmy Graham packs his bags for the great Northwest after dominating the NFC south to the tune of 89-1099-11 per season over the past three years. The first thing to consider when evaluating a pass catcher’s fantasy impact is the guy pulling the trigger. Going from Drew Brees to Russell Wilson is a big drop-off in passing game chops, but Wilson has two straight Super Bowl appearances with back-up and free agent level talent at receiver. Brees peppered Graham with targets the last four seasons, but saw a troubling drop-off in efficiency last season. Graham goes from one Pro Bowler to another, so we won’t get much clarity here. The biggest threat to Graham’s seat at the fantasy banquet will come in the form of offensive philosophy.

The Saints attempted 200 more passes than the Seahawks in 2014, and was squarely a pass-first offense during Graham’s dominating stretch of play. As we’ve seen these last two years, Seattle relies on a battering running game, and a slippery Wilson who picks his shots downfield to wear down opponents and close out games. It’s fair to say that Graham is going to be hard-pressed to approach the 138 targets he averaged over the last few seasons. But before you sour on Graham too fast, keep in mind that Seattle’s No.1 receiver, Doug Baldwin, who will never get confused with Jerry Rice, totaled nearly (98) 100 targets last season. Lacking playmakers in the short and intermediate range, Graham should step right in and lead this team in targets immediately. His size, catch radius, and ability to dominate linebackers and nickel corners off the line, means Graham should maintain a fairly high level of opportunities. A season with approaching 70 catches is certainly within reason. A drop-off, yes, freefall no.

The one area I do have concern about production is the red zone. For years Graham was option one, two and three on every pass play within 20 yards of the end zone. Graham actually has nine 1-yard touchdown catches on 9 attempts in his career! But while the Saints had no running threat close to the goaline, Seattle has one of the game’s best in Marshawn Lynch. In 2014, Lynch accounted for more than half (16) of the team’s 30 red zone scores. Graham scored 9 of his 10 touchdowns from inside the 20 in 2014. Will there be enough red zone scoring opportunities for Graham in Seattle? The answer to that question will go a long way in determining Graham’s final fantasy numbers.

NFL teams almost never trade young, dominating offensive players, even in a sad attempt to save a few bucks. Whatever reason the Saints have for moving Graham, be it toughness questions, blocking liability or finances, Seattle must be thrilled to add a passing game centerpiece to pair with Wilson and the Lynch led run game. Seattle brought in Graham to run pass patterns, not to be an in-line blocker. For an offensive system that gets the most of its talent, expect Graham to move around the formation, thrive off play-action fakes and crossing patterns, and still be a clear-cut TE1 for your fantasy team.