One of the league’s best leaders, Philip Rivers has never
missed a start in the 11 seasons since becoming the Chargers’
starting quarterback. Not only that, but he’s been a monster
fantasy asset, having passed for at least 4,000 yards in eight of
his past nine seasons while passing for anywhere between 26 to 33
touchdowns in all nine of those seasons. Rivers has one of the safest
jobs in all of football with the Chargers having not spent significant
money or draft equity on the quarterback position in quite some
time, but there is some concern that his skills are deteriorating.
Rivers threw a career-most 21 interceptions in 2016 and his offensive
line has allowed him to take some pretty serious licks in recent
years. He’s also one of the league’s least-mobile QB’s,
having not rushed for a touchdown since 2011. Still, if the team
can get back to health remain that way, this may be the deepest
group of pass catchers that Rivers has ever played with. Rivers
finished sixth at quarterback in 2016 and there’s little reason
to believe that he won’t again finish around that range this
season.
After a terribly ineffective rookie season (833 total yards, 0 TDs),
Melvin Gordon turned it around with a huge sophomore season where
he totaled 1,416 yards, 12 TDs and 41 catches. This excellent fantasy
performance came despite an offensive line that was far below average
across the board. Much of Gordon’s success was volume-based as he
rushed for just 3.9 yards per carry, including 58 total red zone
touches which put him at No.5 among running backs in that category,
but there doesn’t seem to be any indication that the Chargers will
be looking to lighten his workload in 2017. The team replaced head
coach Mike McCoy with Anthony Lynn, who has spent most of his coaching
career as a running backs coach for various organizations. The Chargers
also drafted guards Forest Lamp and Dan Feeney in Rounds 2 and 3,
while signing tackle Russell Okung, who should improve the o-line
performance in 2017.
Gordon is a very safe option due to the lack of talent behind him
now that Danny Woodhead is gone. It’s rare to find a “bell
cow” back these days, which should mean he’s locked
in as a mid-first round pick in most fantasy drafts. Gordon is not
without risk however, as he has dealt with injury issues in both
of his two NFL seasons, having not played a snap in Weeks 16 or
17 in either season.
After missing the 2016 season with an Achilles tendon injury,
most believe that it’s Branden Oliver who has the inside
track to be the primary backup for Melvin Gordon heading into
the 2017 season. Oliver has drawn praise from quarterback Philip
Rivers who raved about his explosiveness in OTA’s, noting
that it’s great to have two backs (Gordon and Oliver) who
have similar skill sets and can do many of the same things.
Oliver has performed relatively well when he’s been given
the chance, particularly in 2014 when he had back-to-back 100-yard
rushing performances. Oliver himself is unlikely to have much
fantasy value while Gordon is healthy however it’s the nature
of being an NFL running back that injuries are always just a play
away. Oliver is the most tenured of the backs on the Los Angeles
roster despite being just 26 years old. While the team did have
a turnover at many of the coaching positions, Ken Whisenhunt will
remain the team’s offensive coordinator heading into 2017,
which should mean that Oliver has a good grasp of the playbook.
He certainly hasn’t locked up the backup running back job,
but his skill set seems to be closest to that of Gordon, which
would seem to indicate that he’d be the player who would
transition most smoothly into a starting role should Gordon go
down this season.
It’s been a tough two years for wide receiver Keenan Allen.
Allen played one half of football in 2016 and spent the rest of
the year rehabbing a torn ACL. He also missed half of the 2015
season with a freak kidney injury, which was crippling to many
fantasy owners as he was on pace for monster totals of over 130
catches, 1,400 yards and 8 TDs.
Reports indicate that Allen is progressing well and should be
fully ready for the regular season, if not the preseason, which
should be music to the ears of Philip Rivers. Allen will likely
be Rivers’ most trusted target out wide as the duo has built solid
chemistry over the last four years. There are concerns that Allen
might concede some red zone looks to rookie Mike Williams, but
Allen himself is the type of receiver who can produce quality
fantasy numbers on a week-to-week basis even if he doesn’t get
into the end zone. Touchdown potential is a major concern for
all pass catchers in this offense due to the physical size of
the receivers and the quality of tight ends on the roster, but
Allen is easily the safest of the bunch even with his recent injury
history.
Rookie Mike Williams (6’4”, 218) has a frame perfect
for a quaerterback like Philip Rivers who loves to give his players
a shot in one-on-one coverage. Williams joins the team with a
similar athletic makeup to former Chargers receivers Malcom Floyd
and Vincent Jackson, but with seemingly more upside. He scored
11 touchdowns in Clemson’s National Championship season
this past year, proving that he is one of the most dominant red
zone threats to come into the league in quite some time.
Williams does need to work on his route running which could cause
him to be more volatile and thus less valuable especially in PPR
formats, but the big concern about him at the moment is his health.
He’s already dealing with a herniated disc in his back which
has not allowed him time to acclimate himself with the offense,
and particularly with Rivers. Be careful if he is still missing
significant practice time in late-July or August. The talent is
here, but the injuries are worrisome as he also suffered a neck
injury in college that caused him to miss most of the 2015 season.
He’s arguably the top option among dynasty wide receivers
this season, but Williams enters into a crowded offense with quite
a few mouths to feed. He’s likely the most physically skilled
pass catcher in the offense, but he may struggle to show that
early in his career until other players in this offense move on.
It’s astonishing to think that Tyrell Williams finished
13th overall at wide receiver in fantasy production in 2016 -
ahead of the likes of Amari Cooper, Larry Fitzgerald and Julian
Edelman - but it’s true. That type of production from a
relatively unknown receiver is exactly what Philip Rivers has
been orchestrating throughout the majority of his career.
Much of Williams’ production was due to the lack of options
around him, especially with injuries to Keenan Allen, Antonio
Gates and Danny Woodhead; but there’s still a role for him
in this offense in 2017. It’s looking like he could begin
the season in the starting lineup as Mike Williams is missing
valuable practice time. Tyrell doesn’t have the upside that
he flashed in 2016 but he’s a sneaky late-round pick who
could provide WR2 numbers if either Allen or Mike Williams continue
to struggle with injuries, and WR3 numbers even if everyone stays
healthy.
TE Hunter
Henry (2016 TE Rank – No. 11, 7.4 FPts/G)
Hunter Henry finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end as a rookie
despite competing for playing time with a future Hall of Famer.
Of course, much of Henry’s production came when Antonio
Gates was out of the lineup or hindered by injury early in the
season, but he did catch five touchdowns in the second half of
the season as well. Henry’s upside is limited by Gates being
on the roster as both are big touchdown threats, and there are
a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, particularly in the red
zone.
An injury to Gates would immediately catapult Henry into the high-end
TE1 conversation. He performed at that level when Gates was out
and with the lack of true high-end talent at the position, Henry
is likely to finish in the top 12 even if he and Gates are competing
for playing time. Henry did deal with a minor knee injury and
a concussion a year ago so he is not necessarily an iron man himself,
but he’s a young, talented player who can get on the field
in both running and passing situations which is going to be a
big asset on a team coached by Anthony Lynn.
TE Antonio
Gates (2016 TE Rank – No. 10,
6.9 FPts/G)
It’s been a historic and a remarkably consistent career
for Antonio Gates, who has now finished as an overall top-12 (TE1)
fantasy tight end in 13 straight seasons. Not only that, but Gates
finished in the top five in eight of those 13 seasons, most recently
in 2014 when he finished No. 2 at the position. Of course, Gates’
best days are far behind him and he’s even noted that the
passing game now goes through Keenan Allen, but both Gates and
the Chargers seem to think there’s still some gas left in
his tank.
Gates is expected to take a backseat to the younger, healthier
Hunter Henry who had a productive rookie season both with and
without Gates in the lineup. This means that Gates will likely
be relegated to passing down work with an emphasis on the red
zone, where he currently sits tied with Tony Gonzalez as the NFL’s
all-time touchdown leader among tight ends. He’ll have some
TE1 weeks, but Gates will also likely be a complete bust in a
number of games. The lack of depth at the tight end position overall
will make him a decent bye week replacement-type player who still
has TE1 upside if Henry goes down.
