2004 Fantasy Outlook Coaches: Lovie Smith
(HC), Terry Shea (OC), Ron Rivera (DC) Passing SOS: 11th (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult) Rushing SOS: 22nd (1 = Easy,
32 = Difficult)
The Bears are in transition these days which usually means mediocre
production as both players and coaches get used to new systems
and to one another. Lovie Smith (last seen as the Defensive Coordinator
in St. Louis) has replaced Dick Jauron in the hot seat and will
be calling the shots. John Shoop is gone (to the delight of many)
and new Offensive Coordinator Terry Shea will be using the Kansas
City offense as a template. Shea spent three years as the QB coach
in Kansas City and has firm grasp of the "Air-Coryell"
approach. The question is, does he have the players? The release
of Kordell Stewart & Chris Chandler leaves unproven Rex Grossman
as the starting QB. Thomas Jones has been brought in to play the
role of Priest Holmes and the wideouts lacks speed. Changes are
also occurring along the offensive line as John Tait (KC) has
been brought in to play right tackle and Rueben Brown (BUF) should
plug a hole at Guard. Qasim Mitchell will open as the starting
left tackle and 900 lb. Aaron Gibson (give or take a few) is also
in the mix. The Bears are a team headed in the right direction
but this season will likely be filled with growing pains.
Quarterbacks:Rex
Grossman, Jonathan Quinn, Craig Krenzel®
Grossman will be leading the Bears offense this season as the
Kordell Stewart project has been terminated. Grossman is inexperienced
(only played in 3 games last year as a rookie) and will be learning
a new system; a system that probably suites him well but will
take some time getting used to. He's shown good accuracy and arm
strength but lacks size and mobility. His completion percentage
should improve (52.8 last year) but his value as a fantasy QB
is minimal. The fact that he's entrenched as the starter gets
him in the top 30 and a goal of 3000 yards is reasonable.
Hopefully Grossman can stay healthy because the pickens are slim
at the backup QB position. Jonathan Quinn has been brought in
from Kansas City and has a grand total of 361 passing yards over
the last four years. Rookie Craig Krenzel should make the team
as the #3 but is nothing more than a clipboard holder for now.
Projected Stats
Rex Grossman - 2,665 yds, 13 TDs, 16 INT; 75 rush yds, 1 TD; 198.8
FF Pts
Jonathan Quinn - 330 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs; 17 rush yds, 0 TDs; 26.2
FF Pts
Running Backs:Thomas Jones,
Anthony Thomas, Rabih Abdullah, Brock Forsey, Adrian Peterson Fullbacks:Bryan
Johnson, Jason McKie
How the Bears use Thomas Jones and Anthony Thomas will be an interesting
scenario. Jones is more suited for this offense and could put
up some respectable yardage numbers if given the full opportunity.
He's a better pass-catcher than A.T. and Offensive Coordinator
Terry Shea believes Jones can blossom in his offense catching
screens, checkdowns and passes out in the flat. The real question
is how do the Bears work Anthony Thomas into the mix?
A.T. has posted two nice seasons with Bears cracking the 1000-yd
mark two out of the last three years with his best season occurring
in '01 when he totaled 1361 yards and 7 TDs. He ran hard last
year and even showed some surprising quickness but is still more
of a power runner. With the addition of Thomas Jones, it appears
A.T.'s playing time and production is about to decrease. He seems
a little disgruntled with the signing of Jones and who can blame
him? Its possible he'll be used in goaline situation and given
a series or two as the first & second down back but he is
clearly behind Jones on the depth chart. Should Jones work out
well this season its likely A.T. will not be with Chicago in '05.
For now, consider Thomas Jones the back with more upside and we'll
get a better handle on this situation once Bears' training camp
gets going on July 27th.
Projected Stats
Thomas Jones - 865 yds, 5 TDs; 27 rec, 176 Yds, 1 TD; 140.1 FF
Pts
Anthony Thomas - 741 yds, 7 TDs; 4 rec, 21 yds, 0 TDs; 118.2 FF
Pts
Brock Forsey - 143 yds, 1 TD; 5 rec, 36 yds, 0 TDs; 23.9 FF Pts
Bryan Johnson - 46 yds, 1 TD; 15 rec, 115 yds, 0 TDs; 22.1 FF
Pts Wide Receivers:Marty
Booker, Justin Gage, David Terrell, Ahmad Merritt, Bobby Wade
Marty Booker is the veteran of the receiving group and the only
player with a solid lock on a starting job. He had a subpar season
a year ago missing four games due to injury but is capable of
80-90 receptions in this system provided Grossman doesn't fall
flat on his face. Booker isn't a speedster, isn't flashy, but
can make just about every catch in the book and should quickly
become a favorite of Grossman.
Justin Gage and David Terrell will be fighting for Grossman's
attention... Gage is a play-maker with great leaping ability and
has enough physical strength to muscle catches away from defenders.
David Terrell has been a big disappointment after being a first-round
pick in 2001. Both will compete for the #2 job opposite Booker
so keep an eye on training camp reports. I would give the slight
edge to Gage for now based on his work last season although the
team will make every effort to prove their first round pick in
2001 wasn't a wasted selection.
Tight Ends:Desmond
Clark, Dustin Lyman, John Gilmore
Many were touting Desmond Clark as a "sleeper" TE last
season including yours truly only because the other receiving
options in Chicago looked bleak. Clark finished '03 with 433 yards
and 2 scores ranking him 16th among fantasy TEs... not bad but
he certainly didn't live up to "sleeper" status. He's
a better receiver than blocker and will be used as such in the
Bears new offensive scheme. You can expect at least a repeat performance
of last year's stats with a solid chance to make good on that
"sleeper" label in '04.
On defense, there are several more enticing fantasy prospects.
While he hasn't shown the standout pass rush skills he displayed
in college, DE Alex Brown has been better against the run than
advertised. After slimming down by request from Lovie and the
bolstering of the interior D-Line in the draft, Brown is poised
for a breakout year in what should be a more aggressive defense.
DT Tommie Harris has elite potential and the rare upside of a
DT to provide fantasy production. DT Tank Johnson has a few more
question marks, but brings great speed (4.7 at the combine) that
should also immediately help the interior defense improve. DE
Michael Haynes didn't have an impact as a rookie, but he is expected
to be slimmed down and quicker this year, as well. Not a good
redraft pick, but his dynasty fortunes are looking better with
a more aggressive staff, as he seems like a player who needs motivation
and counted on his college success to translate without additional
work.
At LB, Brian Urlacher will be underrated for the first time since
his rookie year. A regular at the top of the fantasy LB rankings,
he dropped off significantly (for him) b/c he didn't have a turnover
in 03. He's still a 100+ tackle guy and hasn't lost the ability
to turn in the big play, so with an improved front and a staff
who may capitalize better on his talents, he should bounce back
big. After an impressive rookie debut, Lance Briggs moves to WLB,
where he should be a better stat producer. He could sneak up on
people the way Warrick Holdman did a few years ago and post a
100+ tackle season. Great sleeper. SLB has been a void since Rosey
Colvin departed and is a question mark this year. Two fast, but
undersized, prospects in Joe Odom and rookie Leon Joe are currently
competing. This is a spot for the late addition of a cut vet.
The rainbow of safeties feature Mike Brown, Bobby Gray, and Mike
Green. Brown, like Urlacher, is a great fantasy producer who had
a down year, but is a tremendous playmaker with a nose for the
ball who should be inspired by the new defense. Green was a breakout
player a couple years ago, but injury and holes in his game have
brought him down. Bobby Gray is a big time hitter, but offers
limited coverage skills. Charles Tillman burst on the scene last
year and overcame plenty of rookie flags to be a solid performer
and display shut-down corner potential. His season was summed
up by outwrestling Randy Moss for a pass that would have been
a TD to clinch a victory over the Vikings. Jerry Azumah could
be the beneficiary of teams looking to throw away from Tillman,
however, several years into the position change, it still seems
Azumah is learning to be a CB. If your league counts return stats,
he emerged as one of the top KO returners in the league last year,
and brings great value there. Rookie Nathan Vasher could make
RW McQuarters expendable as a nickel corner and punt returner.
He doesn't have the size to project as a starting corner, but
if this defense improves quickly, could produce decent fantasy
stats as the third DB.
