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Thoughts and Insight
Into Recent NFL News
12/13/02
Dave
Stringer
Courtesy of Pro
Football Analysis.com
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This Week:
Vick not MVP worthy. Bears offensive woes. Dave Campo screws up. Fasani passes Weinke. Plus lots more.
The Michael Vick for MVP campaign took a big hit this weekend in Tampa Bay. With the quarterback's confidence growing every game and the media offering him as a legitimate MVP candidate, the Vick train rolled into Tampa and got derailed big time in a big game. The second year player managed only 125 yards passing and 15 yards rushing, plus a garbage time touchdown pass. Against the NFL's top defense his performance was not really all that surprising. The Bucs shut him down in their Week 4 matchup and Vick simply does not have any big game experience to draw upon at this stage in his career. He's obviously going to be a great one, but the notion of him being an MVP candidate is one more example of the media hype that surrounds the league and is a disservice to Priest Holmes, Rich Gannon, Marvin Harrison, et al, the real MVP candidates this season.
John Shoop has taken a lot of criticism from fans for his handling of the Bears offense and his reluctance to throw deep passes. For this reason, there's a definite possibility he won't be back with the team next season but management may reconsider after they perform their end of season review. The offensive line has been banged up and ineffective, running back Anthony Thomas went through a sophomore slump, wide receiver David Terrell was put on injured reserve at midseason and quarterbacks Jim Miller and Chris Chandler were either injured or ineffective. In short, it's hard to throw long when the offensive line can't pass protect and the quarterbacks don't have the arm strength to get the ball there. However, one area where Shoop may not get a free pass is his handling of the wide receivers. Marty Booker has been outstanding but Shoop has started Dez White 12 times this season despite his lack of production. Quite simply the third year player does not possess the talent to be a starter. He lacks deep speed and is not big enough to be a quality possession receiver. Early in the season, Terrell seemed to be a better choice to start and now it might be time to give Marcus Robinson a shot. In fact, Robinson may have been able to provide the big plays they have been missing. He showed a knack for making big plays out of screen passes and other short passes during his breakout season in 1999 but has just 20 catches this season and rarely has the ball thrown his way when he is in the game.
Bears management insists they are not auditioning players for next year and are going with the players that give them the best chance to win. After watching Jim Miller throw five yard passes on 3rd and long during recent weeks, it was easy to conclude he did not give them the best chance to win and his season-ending knee injury forces the team to shut him down. Now, in a rather curious move, the Bears will look to backup Chris Chandler, who is very unlikely to be with the team in 2003. Quite simply, due to their immobility Chandler and Miller are unable to be effective behind the team's patchwork offensive line. Unless they have decided Henry Burris has no chance of being their quarterback of the future, he should be starting and getting some game experience to help his development.
When the Browns visited the Jaguars this weekend, it gave the Jags' Wali Rainer a chance to show Butch Davis what he gave up when he traded the middle linebacker to Jacksonville to move up just three spots in the draft's third round this year. Almost immediately after arriving in Cleveland, Davis let it be known he wanted an upgrade over the somewhat slow-footed Rainer in the middle of the defense so it was no surprise when the team let him go and signed ex-Steeler Earl Holmes in free agency. What has Davis got in return for using substantially more salary cap space on the position? Well, the Browns have given up 11 fewer rushing yards per game but still rank near the bottom of the league while Rainer leads the Jaguars in tackles with just four fewer stops than Holmes has. That's impressive considering the hard-nosed Rainer spends less time on the field on obvious passing downs than Holmes. One more example of Davis not properly evaluating the talent he had on hand when he arrived in Cleveland.
Speaking of the Browns-Jags, that was a wonderful non-catch for the winning touchdown by the Browns Quincy Morgan at the end of the game. CBS's announcers did a fine job of informing the audience Morgan caught the ball, although it was clear he didn't. It was readily apparent Morgan did not have possession as he and the ball hit the ground. Of course, Don Criqui of CBS, a Cleveland homer if there ever was one, immediately let the audience know it was definitely a catch. Jags coach Tom Coughlin plans on sending the video to the league.
Hugh Douglas of the Eagles has had an outstanding season but must be wondering if he hasn't hurt himself financially in the process. The defensive end voided the remainder of his contract when he recorded his tenth sack of the season and in turn will be a free agent next season rather than playing in Philadelphia for $5-million, as the deal called for. This past offseason, the 32-year old defensive end witnessed how management put the franchise tag on middle linebacker and later rescinded it after most teams had filled the position, leaving Trotter available in a dried up market. Douglas would almost certainly receive plenty of offers on the open market but the Eagles operate very cautiously with regards to the salary cap and typically have not handed out large contracts to older players so something will have to give for Douglas to remain in Philadelphia. Either the Eagles pay up on a lucrative four to five year deal with a signing bonus of at least $5-million or Douglas accepts less to stay in Philadelphia. Expect the team to offer Douglas a fair contract and for him to be back in Philly next season.
Although it was likely a foregone conclusion already, Rams special teams coach Bobby April definitely had his fate sealed when the team gave up punt and kickoff returns for touchdowns this week against Kansas City. The coverage units have been horrendous all season and April has gotten little out of return specialist Terrence Wilkens who is averaging 9.7 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards on kickoffs with no returns for touchdowns. Rams coach Mike Martz brought April in but expect management to force his hand and for the team to try yet another special teams coach next season.
Perhaps all the talk about San Diego using Doug Flutie if Drew Brees struggled was a ploy by coach Marty Schottenheimer to keep the veteran quiet. Flutie has been on his best behavior this season, but in the past he developed a bit of a reputation for campaigning for himself. In one sense, it makes him less of a team player but the guy has produced when called upon and there isn't anyone out there who would suggest he has received a fair shake during his career. Either way, the team has lost four of its last six games, a stretch during which Brees has thrown three touchdown passes and nine interceptions. He simply has not supplied the error-free quarterbacking he did earlier in the season and has made a number of poor decisions in recent weeks. With the team losing to the Raiders this Sunday at home, Brees struggling to find the open receivers and the team in dire need of some kind of a spark, Flutie may have provided the lift the team needed but Schottenheimer kept him firmly planted on the bench.
Is there a coach in the league who makes worse late game decisions than the Cowboys Dave Campo? When the game is on the line, you can count on whatever decision Campo has made to backfire. This week, on a 4th-and-1 play from the 49ers' 28-yard line with a little over two minutes remaining, the Cowboys elected to have Billy Cundiff try a 47-yard field goal instead of punting or going for it. Of course, Cundiff, who is now 11 for 18 on field goal attempts this year, missed, giving the 49ers excellent field position at their 37-yard line. They went down the field and with 15 seconds remaining Jeff Garcia hit Terrell Owens at the back of the end zone for an 8-yard touchdown pass. Who was covering Owens in man coverage? Backup cornerback Dwayne Goodrich, of course, subbing for an injured Derek Ross. Perhaps a zone coverage or double coverage on Owens would have been a better call.
Keeping with the Cowboys, it will come as no surprise if the team has a new special teams coach in 2003. Joe Avezzano is popular in Dallas but his units have been very inconsistent this season and it appears Avezzano may be let go even if Campo somehow manages to stay on. The Cowboys use kickers and punters making low salaries and Avezzano has managed to get production in this area in the past, but the well has run dry this season. In terms of coverage and returns, his units have respectable numbers but have given up long returns at very inopportune moments. Case in point, 49ers Jamal Robertson's 42-yard return late in the fourth quarter this past Sunday. Another example of poor coaching was the team's inability to quickly kick the point after attempt after Woody Dantzler's kickoff return for a touchdown where Dantzler tiptoed down the sideline. After lining up for the extra point, the ball wasn't snapped for approximately five seconds allowing the 49ers time to throw the red flag to challenge the play. The play was upheld but this lack of attention to detail won't win Avezzano any points during his year-end review.
Brian Billick's decision to start Jeff Blake for the rest of the season likely means the team no longer views Chris Redman as their quarterback of the future. Because of his fondness for throwing the deep ball, Blake is not well suited to direct Billick's west coast offense so the team would likely be starting Redman to give him more experience if they felt he was a long-term solution. Blake will likely be let go during the offseason and the team will look to free agency and the draft for players to provide competition for Redman.
With the Carolina Panthers quietly elevating Randy Fasani to second-string quarterback and demoting Chris Weinke, another recent quarterback draftee is quickly looking like a bust. When coach John Fox elected to name Rodney Peete as his quarterback of a team that was not a playoff contender, it was a clear signal he was not a fan of Weinke's, who started 15 games in 2001 but just one game this season. There were reports that Weinke went into a funk after his demotion but Fox elected to start the second-year player when Peete went down with an injury in Week 6. There was speculation the team would go to Weinke once they were eliminated from playoff contention but that never materialized. The team's decision to elevate Fasani, a player with a very limited upside, to second-string status is a clear indication Weinke is no longer in their plans and will not be with the team in 2003.
Despite Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's improved play in recent weeks, there is virtually no chance he will be the team's starter in 2003 if Mike Holmgren returns as coach. If Holmgren returns next season, it will be his last chance to prove to team management that he can put a winner on the field and it's very likely he will risk using Hasselbeck as his starter if that scenario plays out. It would seem Hasselbeck's best chance of returning in 2003 as the starter is if Holmgren is let go. Ironically, Holmgren traded for Hasselbeck in the belief he could be an effective starter and now the quarterback's immediate future is likely best served if Seattle lets Holmgren go.
Despite Denver's loss this week to the Jets, quarterback Brian Griese did more than a little to earn the respect of the Bronco faithful. Playing with a partially torn medial collateral ligament, Griese battled hard, several times escaping from Jet defenders to avoid potential sacks. Unfortunately for Griese, he was picked off at the goal line in the game's deciding moments on a pass intended for Rod Smith that was a little off mark but that Smith may have deflected had he not been held on the play. There was no pass interference call because it's doubtful the ball was catchable, but Smith may have been able to tip the ball had he not been held. Nonetheless, Griese played well for the most part and this should help enhance his status with the team and its fans.
Joe from Williamstown, NJ would like some commentary on running backs whose production is enhanced because of the offensive system employed by their team. It's my belief that the production of quarterbacks, tight ends and receivers are more affected by the systems they play in than for running backs because running backs on decent teams are virtually guaranteed of getting close to 20 touches a game. With that many touches, it's hard not to be productive and this is partly why rookie running backs typically put up decent numbers. That being said, there are obviously running backs that benefit from the system they are in. For this discussion, I will exclude running backs that would be productive in any system, including Marshall Faulk, LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, etc. Jerome Bettis and Ricky Williams benefit from the power running games their teams employ that allow them to wear down defenses and accumulate plenty of yards in the fourth quarter. Priest Holmes benefits from a system that focuses on getting him in one-on-one matchups in space. Remember, he wasn't nearly as effective in Baltimore as he has been in Kansas City. Clinton Portis has benefited from the Broncos zone blocking techniques that allow him to cutback into open lanes and run against the defense's pursuit. On the other hand, Michael Pittman was effective running behind the Cardinals massive offensive line but has not been as productive in Jon Gruden's version of the West Coast offense. Thomas Jones hasn't been effective in Arizona because he doesn't hit the hole as hard as Pittman did. Warrick Dunn's production has been inconsistent this year because Dan Reeves has not figured out how to get the most out of him. This is not overly surprising because Reeves has historically found players to fit his system and has not adjusted his system to suit the talent he has, his handling of Michael Vick notwithstanding. This is why Dunn's signing with Atlanta was so surprising. Despite putting up decent numbers, James Stewart is not a prototypical back for the West Coast system that Detroit uses.
Questions? Comments? Dave
Stringer
Mike MacGregor is the owner and operator
of Pro Football Analysis.com,
which primarily provides research, analysis and opinions for handicapping
NFL football.
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