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Traditional SOS vs. Expected - Based on Opponents Wins & Losses
By Jason Podgorny

Key:
2004 - Win Pct Of Opponents Faced in 2004 (2004 Records)
Rank - 2004 Rank
E2004 - Win Pct Of Opponents Faced in 2004 (2003 Records)
ERank - Expected 2004 Rank
SDiff - Difference Between Expected and Actual Schedules
RDiff - Difference Between Expected and Actual Ranks

This table is presorted by the 2004 column. Numbers in this column represent the average win percentage of opponents faced in 2004.

The E2004 column represents the average win percentage opponents were expected to have in 2004 based on the 2003 season ending win loss numbers.

Notice that Seattle and Arizona faced a significantly easier schedule than they were expected to heading into 2004 while Cleveland and Kansas City faced a significantly more difficult schedule than they were expected to.

2004 Traditional SOS vs. Expected (Wins & Losses)
Team 2004 Rank E2004 ERank SDiff RDiff
CLE 0.590 1 0.484 26 0.106 25
OAK 0.570 2 0.512 5 0.058 3
MIA 0.555 3 0.531 1 0.024 -2
KC 0.551 4 0.488 23 0.063 19
BAL 0.551 4 0.508 13 0.043 9
CIN 0.543 6 0.512 5 0.031 -1
JAC 0.527 7 0.516 3 0.011 -4
NYJ 0.523 8 0.512 5 0.011 -3
DAL 0.516 9 0.469 32 0.047 23
NYG 0.516 9 0.480 29 0.036 20
BUF 0.512 11 0.512 5 0.000 -6
TEN 0.512 11 0.484 26 0.028 15
CAR 0.508 13 0.492 20 0.016 7
HOU 0.504 14 0.512 5 -0.008 -9
IND 0.500 15 0.508 13 -0.008 -2
DET 0.496 16 0.492 20 0.004 4
NE 0.492 17 0.512 5 -0.020 -12
STL 0.488 18 0.512 5 -0.024 -13
SF 0.488 18 0.512 5 -0.024 -13
PIT 0.484 20 0.477 30 0.007 10
DEN 0.484 20 0.488 23 -0.004 3
MIN 0.480 22 0.496 18 -0.016 -4
TB 0.477 23 0.484 26 -0.007 3
SD 0.477 23 0.508 13 -0.031 -10
WAS 0.477 23 0.492 20 -0.015 -3
NO 0.465 26 0.504 17 -0.039 -9
CHI 0.465 26 0.496 18 -0.031 -8
ARI 0.461 28 0.523 2 -0.062 -26
GB 0.457 29 0.508 13 -0.051 -16
PHI 0.453 30 0.473 31 -0.020 1
SEA 0.445 31 0.516 3 -0.071 -28
ATL 0.434 32 0.488 23 -0.054 -9