Outlook: I hope you bought a few cold ones for the fantasy owner who drafted Adrian Peterson in your league last year, they deserved it. After just 21 carries, his 2014 season was over, and the immediate future of the one of the league’s best players was in serious doubt. Flash forward to the early summer of 2015, and Peterson is rested, refreshed, and ready to be unleased upon the NFL once again. Uh oh!

Not surprisingly Peterson’s stats fell off in 2013 after his monster 2000-yard campaign in 2012. Although they were slightly off by his standards, a 1200+ yard, 10-touchdown running back is going to be a RB1 in fantasy football, no matter the format. Even after turning 30 this offseason, Peterson’s year away from the game has made him fresher and hungrier than ever. In Norv Turner’s offensive system, Peterson is going to be the focal point of the run game, and could be primed to best his career high single season reception total (43). For reference, Emmitt Smith in his prime had four seasons of 50+ receptions. This Vikings team is loaded on offense, should boast an aggressive young defense, and has talent to challenge for the division title. There is no reason to think that Peterson won’t return to his dominant form, and is a strong consideration at the No.1 overall pick.

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Outlook: It’s hard to believe that Marshawn Lynch has been as productive as he has for so long while never really being considered as a potential No.1 overall fantasy pick. That remains the case in 2015 as Lynch is again being selected as a mid-first-round pick in most drafts following his fourth straight season with over 1,200 rushing yards and double-digit rushing touchdowns. Lynch has never been the top-scoring fantasy running back, but he has been in the elite conversation since his move to Seattle back in 2010. His consistent high-end production makes him one of the most valuable players in all of fantasy football and doesn’t possess the same type risk that many of the other top fantasy backs do. Lynch has touched the ball over 300 times in every full season he has spent in Seattle and there’s little reason to believe that he won’t surpass that number again this season.

Lynch heads into his ninth NFL season and despite his age and high workload, he remains very productive on a per-carry basis. He finished with 4.7 yards per carry in 2014 and even cracked the 5.0 mark back in 2012. Not only that, but his usage in the passing game increased in 2014 as he made 37 receptions for a career-high 367 yards and four touchdowns, also a career high. His 17 total touchdowns were the best of his career and despite the addition of Jimmy Graham to the passing game, Lynch remains one of the most likely players in the league to touch the ball near the goal line. One concern for Lynch is that the team will be without former two-time Pro Bowl center Max Unger, who left for New Orleans in the trade for Graham. Unger was one of the better run blockers at the position and Seattle really didn’t do much to address the position during the offseason. Given the offensive line concerns, however, Lynch remains one of the top fantasy players heading into the season and his high floor makes him one of, if not the safest running backs in all of fantasy football.

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Outlook: Once again in the conversation to be the top overall pick in fantasy football drafts, Jamaal Charles has to be considered one of the safest picks that can be made going into 2015. Charles finished seventh among running backs with an average of 14.5 points per game in 2014 and should be a good bet to continue that type of production this season. The best part about Charles is he has so many games with high-end production. This past season, he contributed 20 or more fantasy points in six games and scored at least 10 points in 10 games. This is even more impressive when you consider he essentially missed two full games due to a high ankle sprain he suffered early in the Chiefs’ Week 2 game against the Broncos. So in the remaining 14 games, Charles only finished with fewer than 10 points in four contests.

If there’s anything to be worried about with Charles, it’s that he did see significantly fewer passes come his way in 2014 than he did in 2013, when he led all running backs in fantasy scoring. In 2014, Charles caught an acceptable 40 passes on 59 targets, good enough to make him a valuable but not overwhelmingly great asset in PPR formats. This was a far cry from his 70 receptions on 104 targets in 2013, however. Still, if Charles can stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe he won’t again be one of the elite fantasy football running backs this season. He’ll get the lion’s share of the Chiefs’ running back touches, and that makes him an obvious early first-round target for fantasy.

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Outlook: In 2013 Lacy finished his rookie year as the No.7 overall running back with a 14.0 FPts/G average. Lightning nearly hit the same place twice, as Lacy moved up a spot on the rankings and improved his FPts/G average by nearly a point. Can fantasy owners expect similar numbers in 2015? In a word, YUP!

After a maddeningly slow start to the 2014 season (1 touchdown, and no games over 43 yards during Weeks 1-4), it seemed Lacy was on his way to catastrophic bust status. Many impatient fantasy owners panicked and sold low, thinking the runner from Alabama was on the verge of following in the footsteps of other failed Crimson Tide backs. While Lacy didn’t approach the carry numbers from his rookie year (284-246), he did increase his yards-per-carry from 4.1 to 4.6, which shows an improving understanding of blocking schemes, and running lanes. After that horrific start, Lacy finished the season incredibly strong with 157-766-4 (4.9 ypc) over the final eight games of the season. Five of his highest rushing attempt totals came during this stretch, which also happened to coincide with the injury to Rodgers.

As long as Rodgers is under center, the Packers are going to throw the ball around the field with great frequency as they build leads. The passing attack, and the desire to limit his carries to keep him fresh for the long haul, will conspire to keep Lacy’s yardage totals in check, but being a three-down back on the best offense in football is an incredibly valuable commodity. He’s the element of the Packer offense that keeps defenses honest, and his touchdown potential, combined with his work in the passing game, make him one of the highest floor RB1s in fantasy football. With health, expect Lacy to again approach top-5 totals.

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Outlook: Much has been said and written about the physical transformation Le’Veon Bell underwent between his rookie season in 2013 and his dynamic sophomore campaign last year. He went from one of the league’s biggest plodders (3.5 yards-per-carry in 2013), to a forceful, patient, home-run capable back that ran for a strong 4.7 yards-per-carry in 2014. The thing is, Bell just didn’t improve drastically on the ground, he wound up being the second leading receiver on the team with 83 receptions, and was second in the entire NFL with a total of 373 touches (yards + carries). Throw in 11 total touchdowns (he only had one rushing score going into Week 11), and you have the making of an absolutely elite fantasy season in any format. With his dual threat capabilities, he was one of the best weekly bets for production, as he only had one game all year where he scored single-digit fantasy points. So is the 23-year old ready to repeat his fantasy magic?

It certainly won’t be easy as he’s set to miss the first two games of the season due to suspension. That is a big factor fantasy owners drafting at the top of the first round will have to think about when they consider Bell. Owners drafting Bell will need to add extra talent at the running back position to get through the first two weeks. But for the long haul, I actually think the missed games could help Bell’s overall production. Taking a quick look at Week’s 15-17, it seems the season’s workload may have got to him. He averaged 2.4, 3.5, and 2.5 yards-per-carry in those final three games, while suffering a significant knee sprain that cost him the Wild Card game. I’m inclined to think that Bell, could, and should be fresher down the stretch in 2015. Any missed games are surely going to impact his final numbers, but not enough to scare me away from Bell’s high weekly floor. There is enough room for Bell to improve on his redzone numbers, and with little on the bench behind him, he should see the field plenty when he returns. Grab a runner earlier in your draft to get your through the first two games and don’t be afraid to rely on Bell as your RB1.

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Outlook: DeMarco Murray enters 2015 as the reigning NFL rushing champion after posting a career high 1845 rushing yards in his final season with the Cowboys. Now a member of the Eagles after signing a lucrative free agent deal in the offseason, Murray’s value has taken a significant hit due to the fact that the Eagles also signed former Chargers’ running back Ryan Mathews to help carry the load. Veteran tailback Darren Sproles is also in the mix as a change-of-pace and third-down back, adding to the reduction in value for Murray.

It remains to be seen how the division of carries will be handled by head coach Chip Kelly and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur. A 60-40 split is possible for first and second down carries, with Sproles working in on third downs. The one certainty about Murray is that he will not reach his 393 carry total from last season that allowed him to post eight-straight 100-yard games to open the season, unless Mathews sustains an injury that forces the Eagles to rely on one back. Although Murray’s value is down from what it was at the end of last season, he is still worthy of an early round selection and could be a nice low-end number one running back for fantasy owners in 2015.

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Outlook: One of the hottest names in fantasy football this offseason has been Denver running back C.J. Anderson. Anderson burst onto the scene in the second half of the 2014 when he compiled 1,091 total yards and 10 touchdowns over the final eight games of the regular season. Anderson got starting the job after injuries to both Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Now being referred to as the “1A” running back in Denver by the media, Anderson figures to get the bulk of the carries in what figures to be a run-heavy offense under new head coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak’s system has been kind to running backs in the past putting names like Arian Foster and Justin Forsett onto the fantasy radar despite both players being forgotten in the NFL Draft. Patient runners who can make the right cut at the right time and are willing to participate in the passing game both as a pass catcher and as a blocker is what works in Kubiak’s system. Anderson provides all of those qualities and despite going undrafted in 2013, he did shine in the only real opportunity he has been given.

The real question is centered on how much the combination of Ball and Hillman will be involved in the offense. While they are competing for the “1B” job, both players figure to factor in somehow and given their injury histories, there is a good chance that we will see each of them occupy the “1B” role to some point this season. Anderson figures to be the RB to own, however, as Kubiak has been more than willing to utilize one “bellcow” running back in the past while giving scraps to the other players in the offense when necessary. Anderson should be considered a low-end first round draft pick with the potential of developing into a top five back if he stays healthy all season.

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Outlook: Despite a significant drop in running game numbers across the board, Forte’s No.4 overall running back finish was buoyed by a ridiculous 102 catches for 808 yards and 4 touchdowns - receiving numbers that would make any slot receiver in the league blush with pride. In PPR leagues he was a god, and was pretty darn excellent in standard and touchdown heavy leagues as well. But while there were several factors in his favor going into last season, there may be just as many factors against him going into 2015.

The biggest hit to Forte’s numbers will be the change in offensive system. With Trestman at the helm, Chicago targeted their running backs fifth-most in the league. Denver, guided by Adam Gase came in at 23rd. Before Trestman’s arrival in Chicago, Forte was still a dual threat, but had never surpassed the 64 catches he had as a rookie. Look for his reception total to fall somewhere in the 55-65 range. Was it an aberration or age-related decline that lead to Forte’s disappointing 3.9 yards-per-carry average? While more of a vision and balance guided runner, Forte should age well as he enters his eighth NFL season. He enters the final year of his contract, and baring pre-season extension, could very well be playing his final season for the Bears. One thing is for certain, the Bears will continue to rely on Forte to anchor their run game, and as a true three-down workhorse, has plenty of payoff as an RB1, even if he winds up in the 6-10 overall range.

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Outlook: I didn’t even have Forsett in my 2014 player outlooks, and I don’t feel bad about it at all! If I had known Forsett would somehow emerge from a career’s worth of obscurity to finish as the No.8 overall fantasy running back, I’d still be counting my fantasy league winnings. Forsett was the benefactor of the Ray Rice fiasco, the Bernard Pierce implosion, and ideal scheme fit of Gary Kubiak. He shattered every career high with his 235-1266-8 line, adding 44 catches for 263 yards. He was magnificently efficient, posting a silly 5.4 –ypc average. Amazingly, Forsett and Demarco Murray were the only two running backs in the league who posted a double digit (17) total of rushes of 20-plus yards. A whopping 16 percent of Forsett’s total rushing attempts went for 10+ yards which meant he had a monster weekly floor, even without a heavy volume of carries. Every week I waited for the shine to dull, but Forsett got better as the year went on, posting five of his six 100-yard games from Week 10 onward. Clearly Forsett was that rare out-of-nowhere gem last season, but what happens now that he’s more of a known commodity and an offensive centerpiece?

While the Ravens say they are going to leave most of the zone blocking schemes in place from the previous offense that made Forsett so effective, the loss of Kubiak will have a profound effect. Expect Forsett’s ground totals to take a hit, but a boost in receptions is nearly a given. Trestman’s usage of running backs as receiving threats out of the backfield is well documented, and this meshes up well with Forsett’s strengths as a pass catcher. Forsett should threaten 70 receptions, easily besting his career high of 44 last year. His total touches, yardage and touchdowns should remain steady, but I do have concerns about how he will respond physical to the nearly 300 touches he received last year. He had never been close to even 200 touches in any single season in his career, and looked out of gas at times with a lingering ankle injury in Weeks 15, 16, and in the Wild Card game against the Steelers. Don’t ignore the potential impact of bruising second-year runner Lorenzo Taliaferro either. He’s sure to steal more than a handful of carries from the returning vet, especially near the goal line. I have doubts he can repeat his RB1 performance from a year ago, and would be much more comfortable with Forsett as a strong RB2 that provides a consistently high floor.

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Outlook: Power, speed, elusiveness – you name it, Jeremy Hill displayed it in 2014. The former LSU Tiger had a dominant rookie season, putting up a 222-1124-9 line. Hill’s stats are even more impressive considering he didn’t see consistent touches until Week 8! Hill was fantasy gold and one of the best values of any player last year. So what can fantasy owners expect as an encore in his sophomore season? I fully expect Hill to be a top-5 running back, and a shoe-in first round pick in drafts. His 5.1 ypc average, size-speed combination, and ability to play on all three downs means he’ll rarely come off the field, and easily surpass the 222 carry total from last season. Hill displayed an impressive ability to make big plays by breaking tackles, as he accumulated 11 carries of 10+ yards-after-contact (behind only Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster). The returned health of the Bengals passing threats means defenses simply cannot afford to put eight men in the box. The offensive line is better and younger, and this whole Cincinnati offense has a chance to put up a serious amount of points, and Hill stands to benefit. With health, he’s a lock for 1,200 yards and 10+ touchdowns, and has one of the highest upsides of any fantasy back in the league. I wouldn’t hesitate to make Hill a very early pick, and a strong RB1.

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Outlook: If not for hand and knee injuries, Mark Ingram would have likely finished as a top-10 fantasy running back in 2014. That is why the team inked him to a new four-year deal, despite the fact he failed to produce in the first three years of his career. With little competition for carries and a team hoping to lean on a more effective rushing game, Ingram provides plenty of RB2 upside despite being an injury risk. His YPC has always been strong and he should be able to build upon last season’s 4.3 YPC mark if the team commits to one primary rusher. Unlike many other NFL backfields, Ingram shouldn’t lose many touches to other runners, especially near the goal line. C.J. Spiller is a capable second-string runner, but he will complement Ingram more than he competes with him for touches in this offense. Further down the depth chart, Khiry Robinson adds even more pressure and motivation for Ingram to match or exceed his totals from a year ago in the first year of his new deal. He also has the ability to pad his stats with a couple of catches per game, but he may not be asked to do as much this season with Spiller in the fold.

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Outlook: Miller emerged from an early season running back by committee with former Dolphin Knowshon Moreno to deliver the ninth-most fantasy points by a running back in 2014. The improvement of Tannehill and the passing game forced opposing defenses to respect the play action pass, opening the door for Miller to rush for a career-best 1099 yards on 216 carries. His 5.1 yards per carry average was second only to Justin Forsett. Keep in mind that Miller will not be used as a workhorse back. He averaged 15.9 touches last season and the addition of rookie Jay Ajayi will allow the Dolphins to keep Miller fresh and his workload to around 200 carries for the season. It remains to be seen if Miller or Ajayi will earn goal line carries.

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