Outlook: Remember that six-game stretch in 2021 when the league had figured out how to stop Mahomes and the Chiefs offense? Ah, good times, good times. Whatever led to that brief lull in production, it's safe to say it wasn't sustainable for defenses after Mahomes comfortably led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and touchdowns (41) last year en route to a second MVP award and second Super Bowl triumph. All this despite the team trading away star wideout Tyreek Hill before the season.

Entering his age-28 season, Mahomes should be at the height of his powers, and given that head coach Andy Reid calls the plays, the departure of longtime offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy should have limited impact. He'll also lose his No. 1 receiver for a second straight year, as JuJu Smith-Schuster signed in New England, but if he can excel minus Hill, there's no reason think he can't do it here.

While Mahomes isn't an elite runner, he's topped 300 yards each of the last three seasons, so it's not a hindrance the way it could be with some of the other top throwers that prefer not to take off (e.g., Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert). You could maybe convince yourself that Jalen Hurts deserves to be the first quarterback selected, but Mahomes is a much safer choice given his track record and sustainable style of play. For our money, Mahomes is the overall QB1.

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Outlook: It doesn't get much better than the incredible run Josh Allen is on in fantasy football. Over the past three seasons, Allen has finished as the QB2, QB1, and QB1 in total points, solidifying the 27-year-old as an elite option at the position and someone who can provide difference-making value even in the early rounds. While he failed to finish as the QB1 this past year, it's worth considering that he still managed to score 472.4 fantasy points, which would have made him the QB1 (aside from himself) in 2019, 2020, and 2021. It's just that Patrick Mahomes' absurd 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns narrowly earned him the edge over Allen for one season.

Not only is Allen already one of the best players in the game, but the Bills appear intent on helping him get even better, as they spent their first-round NFL Draft pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, who they took at No. 25 overall. There are some grumblings about star wide receiver Stefon Diggs being frustrated and there is a world where he's actually moved this offseason, but Allen provides a high-end rushing ability floor with elite arm strength, which makes him one of the safest players in all of fantasy football. In fact, with a whopping 38, Allen already has the fourth-most rushing touchdowns of any quarterback in NFL history, despite having only played five seasons. He's also gone over 750 rushing yards in back-to-back seasons.

It's true that Allen still turns the ball over too often through the air, which was really the main thing that kept him from being the QB1 in 2022 for what would have been the third straight fantasy season. Still, despite some cringe-worthy picks from time to time, Allen is absolutely worthy of being one of the quarterbacks who managers actually prioritize in the early rounds. In fact, it's completely reasonable to select him above Mahomes given the fact that he's out-scored the Kansas City quarterback by a total of 56.2 points over the past three fantasy seasons combined.

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Outlook: 2022 was a magical season for the Philadelphia offense, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts. They led the NFC in both total yards and total points and the team really hasn't changed much this offseason, so there's a good chance that they're among the top of the league in those categories once again. One thing that did change, however, was that they lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who has now been replaced by Brian Johnson. Johnson spent the past two years as the Quarterbacks coach for the Eagles, so he should have an excellent rapport with Hurts and a strong understanding of what has worked for this offense in the past.

Hurts enters 2023 playing alongside one of the best overall supporting casts in the league, behind arguably the NFL's best offensive line and an explosive, dynamic group of skill position players. His completion percentage was quite high this past season, at 66%. He surprised even some of his most vocal supporters, as well, when he threw for over 3,700 yards - a feat which is impressive for a quarterback who also has rushing ability.

Last season, Hurts averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, which means he's able to make big plays downfield - a valuable attribute for fantasy football. Another area where he excels is in touchdown percentage. Last season, he threw 22 touchdown passes, which is a 6.0% touchdown percentage. That's above average and indicates that he's able to find the end zone with his throws.

His touchdown passes are really the main area where Hurts hasn't yet reached his ceiling. He threw just 22 touchdowns in 2022 and that came after tossing just 16 in 2021. We've seen some mobile quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson take big strides in passing touchdowns in the past and that's certainly a possibility for Hurts, who should have plenty of opportunities in the red zone this season.

Hurts has proven himself to be one of the few true difference-making players at the position and that makes him a player who's absolutely worth reaching on in drafts. He's currently being selected around the 2nd/3rd round turn in normal redraft leagues, but don't hesitate to take him as an early-to-mid-first-round pick in SuperFlex and 2QB formats.

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Outlook: After months (years?) of drama, Jackson finally got his "bag" this offseason, securing the financial windfall of a lifetime. Now the story for Jackson turns to the next chapter, as the Ravens have rebuilt the offense, forgoing the "exotic" run-based offense of Greg Roman, and instead turning to former Georgia and Tampa Bay Buc offensive coordinator Todd Monken's pass heavy scheme.

The Ravens seem intent on using Jackson's arm more than his legs, and it remains to be seen what that will look like. He hasn't always been the most efficient or effective passer, especially in the playoffs where things become magnified. He certainly won't have the lack of receiving talent excuse to lean on, as Baltimore spent major cash and draft capital signing Odell Beckham Jr. and adding Zay Flowers in the 1st round. Throw in 2021 1st round pick Rashod Bateman, and elite move tight end Mark Andrews, and Jackson will easily have the best weapons he's had since entering the NFL.

I do know that Jackson remains one of the most athletically gifted players to ever play quarterback, and the Ravens will make good on the attempt to lower the number of designed runs for him. Jackson might have the highest volatility of the top-5 quarterbacks as his range of outcomes spans "best fantasy player on the planet" to "looking up at Geno Smith". Look for Jackson to set career highs in pass attempts and career low in rush attempts. While his 2019 video game numbers remain legendary, his legs, and passing upside make him worth it.

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Outlook: To say Joe Burrow has been a franchise altering player is an understatement. In his first three years in the NFL he's brought the Bengals to two straight AFC championships, (and a Super Bowl), and after decades of being an embarrassment, he's got the Bengals in annual championship contention. His rivalry with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is verging on the stuff of legend, and he's got the scheme and receiving talent to be a fantasy mainstay at the position for years to come.

Entering year four he has vaulted into the upper echelon of quarterbacks, but is there really much more room to climb the fantasy rankings? Despite rushing for ten touchdowns in his career, he has the lowest rushing yardage floor of all the players ranked above him. While there isn't much room to grow there, his passing numbers do have a shot to expand. The line improved slightly last year, giving up seven fewer sacks than 2021. Cinci spent big on Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency and the brutal state of their running game combined with having Ja'Marr Chase for a full season, means Burrow should continue the trend of setting career highs in pass attempts. The bottom line here is that Joe Cool should be somewhere in that top-5 mix at the end of the season, but he no longer comes at the discounted price he may have once had.

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Outlook: After passing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns in his second season, Herbert appeared poised to enter the upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks alongside names like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Instead, the Oregon product experienced significant statistical regression across the board, posting 4,739 yards passing, 25 TDs, and 10 INTs. He also stopped running, dropping from a two-year average of 268 yards and 4 TDs on the ground to a paltry 147 yards and no scores.

The Chargers noticed the dip in production, and doubtless it helped lead to the dismissal of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, who was replaced by former Dallas Cowboys OC Kellen Moore. How well Moore meshes with Herbert figures to go a long way in determining how strongly the newly minted "highest paid player in the NFL" bounces back. Dak Prescott put together some strong years under Moore, and it certainly appears that Herbert has a higher ceiling than his Dallas counterpart.

There aren't many teams out there that offer more offensive weapons than the Chargers, and LA spent a first-round pick on Quentin Johnston, giving the Bolts one of the NFL's most talented top-four receiver groups. There is all manner of upside with Herbert, but coming off a disappointing 2022, you should view him as more of a midrange QB1 rather than a top-tier selection.

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Outlook: After a disaster of a rookie season and a regime change in Chicago, there was legit talk of the Bears moving on from Fields. They eventually stuck with the inexperienced Ohio State product and watched him literally run circles around the NFL in his second season. Finishing seventh in the league with 1,143 yards rushing, Fields was very likely a league winner waiver wire pickup for more than a few fantasy squads. But while he dazzled as a runner there still is much work to be done as a passer.

While not exactly flush with receiving talent, Fields still did have some decent weapons in Cole Kmet, Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool. Yes, those three pale in comparison to the talent he threw to as a Buckeye, but Fields continued to be incredibly raw as a passer. In his 588 NFL attempts he's struggled to complete 60% of his throws, and while he remains an elite athlete that is in desperate need of more reps, my concern is that he might be developing pocket habits that will be hard to break. His 160 rush attempts from 2022 were second only to Jalen Hurts, but many of Fields' attempts were out of self-preservation. Unable to get to his 2nd or 3rd reads because of pressure (perceived or real), Fields didn't spend much time in the pocket. His 318 passing attempts were over 400 fewer than league leader Tom Brady!

It's unlikely that Fields will be able to replicate the rushing totals from 2022, so he's going to have to take the next step as a passer to remain a top-10 fantasy option. Chicago has put a clear emphasis on upgrading around him, as they dealt for receiver D.J. Moore, drafted o-lineman Darnell Wright 10th overall, and added guard Nate Davis in free agency. The Bears have committed to developing Fields, and in his defense, he did improve his efficiency in the 2nd half of 2022. He's locked in as the franchise signal caller and an incremental increase in his passing numbers to go with his elite rushing floor, make him a clear QB1 going forward.

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Outlook: Trevor Lawrence's rookie season in 2021 was an extreme disappointment. The No. 1 overall pick finished with more interceptions (17) than touchdowns (12) and was headed down the bust trail. Under the disaster that was Urban Meyer, the Jaguars tied for the least amount of wins (3) and earned the first overall pick in 2022.

For the first 12 games, Jacksonville's 4-8 record indicated their misery would very likely continue, but Lawrence stepped up in the final five games allowing Jacksonville to clinch the AFC South at 9-8. During that stretch, Lawrence threw for over 250 yards per game, eight touchdowns and was near the top of the league in quarterback rating (101.3). The man who was once treading into bust territory finished the regular season seventh in passes completed (387), eighth in passing touchdowns (25), ninth in passing yards (4,113), passer rating (95.2) and had the seventh-most fantasy points among all quarterbacks (ESPN scoring). For those that like stacking, the Jaguars are an excellent option as Lawrence threw over 750 receiving yards to three different pass catchers.

At the start of 2023, Lawrence is a QB1 in any fantasy league but probably towards the lower end of the top-10 quarterbacks. He's got some untapped rushing ability but it appears head coach Doug Pederson isn't going to let him get above the 400-yard mark. However, his weapons could make him shine bright by the midpoint of the season and the addition of Calvin Ridley should be a benefit to Lawrence's numbers.

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Outlook: A year ago, I didn't even bother to feature Smith in this space, instead writing about Drew Lock under the pretense that Smith winning the job amounted to 17 games of game management that would be of zero interest to fantasy owners. Things change. After passing for less than 200 yards in Weeks 1 and 2, Smith threw for 325 yards in Week 3, and over the remaining 14 games he'd throw for under 200 yards just twice more. His final stat line: 4,282 yards passing, 366 yards rushing, 30 TDs, and 11 INTs.

That performance netted Smith a new three-year, $75 million contract, which is quite the jump after he spent the previous eight seasons as a backup. At 32, Smith should still have some good years left, and Seattle has done a nice job of surrounding him with talent at the skill positions, including potentially one of the best top-three receiver groups in the NFL. There's a lot to like about his 2023 outlook.

Despite that, there are reasons for concern. Smith's production faded down the stretch last year, as over the final four games he passed for just 849 yards (212 per game), 4 TDs, and 3 INTs -- those numbers are much more in line with what most projected from the journeyman heading into 2022. Seattle also has a run-based DNA, and as we saw during the brief "Let Russ Cook" phase, if the numbers aren't leading to wins, Pete Carroll isn't afraid to go conservative. Consider Smith a capable QB2.

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Outlook: On paper and for most practical purposes, it was another solid statistical season for the perennial undervalued Kirk Cousins. Learning a new scheme, he guided the explosive Vikings offense to a 13-4 regular season record, throwing for a career high 4,547 yards, and piling up 31 total touchdowns. He'll somehow get blamed for coming up short in the playoffs again, despite the fact he completed 80% of his passes for 273 yards and three total touchdowns in a defensive meltdown against the Giants.

Finishing as a standard scoring QB1 in seven of the last eight years, Cousins enters 2023 as one of the best fantasy values at the position. The Vikings seemed to have gone all-in on the passing game, ditching former All-Pro runner Dalvin Cook and drafting USC receiver Jordan Addison in the 1st round. Throw in the game's best receiver in Justin Jefferson, rising youngster K.J. Osborn, and the 2022 acquisition of T.J. Hockenson, and Cousins has the gourmet ingredients to cook up a fantasy smorgasbord this season. Season that meal with another young defense that's likely to struggle, and Cousins should continue to compile stats as he's done for a majority of his career. He may never get a team over the hump with a deep playoff run, but that hardly matters to your fantasy team. Snag a QB with top-5 upside, at a mid-round price.

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Outlook: The Giants headed into the 2022 season with a serious question mark at their quarterback position and unfortunately for them, Daniel Jones did just enough to force the team to extend him with a new four-year, $160M contract. Jones did not look great passing the ball, but he finally made an impact from a fantasy standpoint, in large part due to his rushing ability. He finished fifth among QBs with 706 rushing yards while adding seven rushing scores - tied for third-most at the position.

Jones has always been able to provide some production with his legs, but head coach Brian Daboll seems to have a knack for unlocking his quarterbacks. Daboll did it in Buffalo with Josh Allen and it was quite apparent that Jones looked much better in 2022 than he had in his previous seasons. Much of that was driven by his newfound willingness to run. Jones performed well for fantasy, turning in the first top-12 QB season of his career, despite what was probably the worst group of pass-catching weapons he's had.

The Giants did make significant investments in receivers for Jones to throw to this offseason, including bringing in former Pro Bowl tight end Darren Waller, as well as wide receiver Parris Campbell. They also drafted Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt, who caught 15 touchdowns in his final collegiate season, with a third-round pick. This group of receivers lacks a true WR1 and some would argue it even lacks a WR2, but it's certainly deeper and possesses more overall talent than the group Jones had to throw to in 2022.

It'd be tough to expect another 700-yard, seven-rushing-touchdown season from Jones, but he doesn't necessarily even need to maintain quite that level of rushing prowess in order to remain a viable weekly top-12 fantasy QB. Jones barely threw for 200 yards per game and he threw less than one touchdown per game, so it'd be tough for him to be much worse than that was a passer and still keep his starting job. There's plenty of reason to be optimistic that he can make some improvements as a passer and still be a solid fantasy contributor here in 2023.

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Outlook: To say Watson was rusty after his self-inflicted hiatus was an understatement. In his first four starts in a Browns uniform Watson posted a 2-3 touchdown-to-inception ratio, and labored to complete more than half of his passes. Things perked up in the final two games with five passing touchdowns, but the 2022 season was all about getting his legs under him, and distancing himself from the off the field noise.

Watson now enters his sixth year in the NFL with expanded expectations. The addition of Elijah Moore in a trade from the Jets gives Watson a potentially lethal slot man, rookie 3rd round receiver Cedric Tillman provides a big body out wide, and the rest of skill position players are veteran playmakers. This division is stacked, and Cleveland should find themselves in more than a few shootouts. With a distraction-free offseason to get better acquainted with the playbook and speed of the game, Watson should be in line for a massive bounceback season. Before derailing his career, Watson was on an All-Pro trajectory, and will very likely return to provide top-10 upside in 2023.

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