Outlook: A year ago, the question was how high to select Murray (knee) in fantasy drafts. This year, it's whether to select him at all. While Murray was far from great last season, passing for 2,368 yards, rushing for 418, and accounting for 17 combined touchdowns (14 passing, 3 rushing), the issue is his recovery timeline from a torn ACL suffered on Dec. 12.

Details about his recovery have been sparse, and they'll likely continue to be so until training camp begins when we'll get regular access to the coaching staff. It's been suggested that Murray could be back before midseason, but that seems overly optimistic, and it gives rise to the big question: would Arizona even bring Murray back if the team is hopelessly out of playoff contention?

Right now, Arizona is projected by oddsmakers to have the NFL's worst record, which would get them a shot at USC's Caleb Williams -- at that point they could draft him and move Murray or look to flip the pick for a boatload of capital like Chicago did. It's hard to envision a scenario where the Cardinals push Murray to get back on the field quickly. If you can nab him late and stash him in an IR slot, or your QB1 is a reliable top-tier play, Murray could be worth it. Otherwise, it's an unnecessary risk.

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Outlook: Likely playing before he was ready, Pickett had a rocky rookie season for the Steelers. Making his first start in Week 4 for an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky, Pickett struggled, throwing eight interceptions and only two touchdowns in his first five NFL games, going 1-4 in the process. Pickett and the offense became more conservative and the rookie only tossed one more interception over the final seven games he played.

Being shaky with the ball is expected from most rookie quarterbacks, and Kenny took a South Parkesque beating behind a terrible line, suffering multiple concussions. As long as those don't become habitual, things are shaping up well for Pickett and this Steeler offense to make some fantasy noise. Pittsburgh added tackle Broderick Jones in Round 1, and stole guard Isacc Seumalo from their cross-state rivals. With a sneaky running floor (237 yards and three touchdowns in just 12 games), an improved run game, and dynamic talent at wide receiver, Pickett could be worth a late-round pick on a fantasy team looking for an end of the draft value at QB.

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Outlook: 2022 was a tough season for the Cowboys offense and much of that was due to the sometimes-erratic play from quarterback Dak Prescott. Not known for being a turnover machine throughout the early part of his career, Prescott regressed into a player who was throwing risky passes at a high rate and unfortunately it was not accompanied by enough big plays to make up for it. Prescott's 15 picks tied for the league high despite the fact that he played in three fewer games than his counterpart, Davis Mills.

Much of the Cowboys' offensive woes can also be tied to the lack of pass-catching weapons they had throughout the season. CeeDee Lamb produced as a high-level WR1 for fantasy, but primarily played out of the slot and the Cowboys just did not have the outside pass catchers to continue to produce when opposing defenses would key in on Lamb. They did at least partially address the issue this offseason with the acquisition of veteran Brandin Cooks, who brings some much-needed reliability to this group. The team will also need Michael Gallup to take significant strides forward from what we saw in 2022, as he did not appear to be anywhere close to the player he was prior to his season-ending injury in 2021.

Prescott has the ability to return to being a top-10 fantasy quarterback or even better than that if things break his way in the touchdown department, but there are some concerns that could lead to him having a season that resembles his 2022 campaign. One such issue is that while he was once one of the league's better under-the-radar runners, Prescott has become a significantly less run-heavy quarterback over the past two seasons. This corresponds with when he returned from his season-ending ankle injury and it makes sense that he would be more hesitant to run after that painful situation. Additionally, Prescott will now be without offensive coordinator Kellen Moore who joined the Chargers this offseason. While not everyone loved Moore's philosophy, there's really no denying that Prescott's numbers benefited from Moore's system. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has made it very clear that he plans to run the ball heavily. That change could make things tough for Prescott to ever return to being a top-five player at the position.

Thankfully, his ADP doesn't necessitate that Prescott needs to finish as an elite option to return value, so he's a fairly safe option who is unlikely to completely tank your fantasy squad while still providing some decent upside as a much later-round quarterback than he had been over the previous few seasons.

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Outlook: A year ago, Trey Lance was a popular breakout candidate as a possible top-10 fantasy QB. Now, he appears to be on the outside looking in for the starting job in San Francisco after suffering a broken ankle two games into 2021, causing him to miss the rest of the season. In his absence, the job eventually landed in the lap of Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, who stepped in and led the 49ers to seven straight wins before suffering an elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game.

That injury turned out to be a torn UCL, which required surgery in March. While there was initially some concern about Purdy's availability for the upcoming campaign, subsequent updates have painted a much rosier picture that suggest the Iowa State product is ahead of schedule. At this stage, both head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch (and Purdy himself) are optimistic the quarterback will be ready to roll in Week 1. If not, the team could go back to Lance, who has reportedly looked improved during offseason workouts, or veteran Sam Darnold.

While there's no clear hierarchy among the three quarterbacks at this point, if all three are healthy it feels like Purdy has earned the opportunity to lead the team after efficiently guiding the offense to a 7-1 record in eight starts -- the lone loss came against the Eagles in the game he was injured. The issue with that scenario for fantasy owners is Purdy wasn't markedly different than Jimmy Garoppolo statistically, passing for more than 250 yards in a game just once and offering nothing as a runner. Even as the 49ers starter, Purdy might not be a top-25 fantasy QB.

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Outlook: When you see a 12-game stat line that included a 54 percent completion rate for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 6-7 record, the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL Draft isn't exactly what you had in mind. So why was Anthony Richardson taken this early? The eye test is a very powerful thing in sports. Anthony Richardson is 6-foot-4, 244 pounds and runs a 4.43 40-yard dash and can throw it out of the stadium. His dual threat ability might be exactly what the Colts need to get their franchise back on track, because last year was a disaster -- 4-12-1 record, two head coaches and numerous injuries.

Richardson's deep ball and rushing abilities make him an excellent fantasy football option, but because he's a rookie, fantasy managers selecting him in the later rounds may have some bumps in the road early on as he learns the pro game. He's ideally a QB2 on your fantasy team but if he uses his physical gifts and the underrated talent around him, Richardson may become your starter midway through the season.

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Outlook: After Matt Ryan was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for a third-round pick, the Falcons signed free agent Marcus Mariota one month later. Unsure if Mariota was going to be their future starter, the Falcons drafted Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder with the pick the Colts traded to them.

Mariota ended up being the starter, recording a 5-8 record before suffering an injury. Ridder played the final four games, throwing 73 completions out of 115 attempts (63.5 percent) for 708 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Ridder doesn't have very high expectations going into his second season due to his lack of production (even though it was limited) and the crowded, but talented running back room. Because of this, and head coach Arthur Smith's run-heavy scheme, Ridder isn't likely to be drafted in most 1QB leagues. However, the extremely underrated talent around him could give him a boost and potentially get him off the waiver wire at some point in the season.

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Outlook: The 2022 season was tough for the Packers, particularly for future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. The QB threw for just 217 yards per game-by far the worst number of his career-and he threw 12 interceptions, the second-worst number of his career. While it's true that Rodgers didn't have much to work with in the pass-catching department, the signs of aging were much more apparent than at any point prior. He rushed for just 94 yards on the season-the fewest of his career as a starter--and added just one touchdown on the ground after contributing three rushing scores in both 2020 and 2021. Now heading into his 19th NFL season, Rodgers hopes that a change of scenery could be the catalyst for returning him back to his former glory as a three-time NFL MVP.

Rodgers heads to New York to join the Jets and while a veteran QB heading to a new situation doesn't always lead to great success, the similarities to Tom Brady's move to Tampa Bay are glaring. Rodgers joins a team that has been in desperate need of competent quarterback play, coached by one of the league's bright young coaches, and he'll have the opportunity to throw to this past year's AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson. Wilson broke out as a rookie and should provide Rodgers with a reliable WR1, which he was sorely missing this past season. In fact, Rodgers' leading receiver from a season ago, Allen Lazard, came to New York along with his QB and should find himself in a much more natural role as his new team's No. 2 or even No. 3 option in the passing game.

The fantasy game has changed so much, especially at QB, due to the rushing ability that many of the top signal callers are bringing to the table. But there's still space for a player like Rodgers to finish inside QB1 range this season. No QB in NFL history offers a higher TD/INT ratio throughout his career than Rodgers. In fact, it's not even close. Only four QBs ever (Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Tom Brady) have higher than a 3.0 TD/INT ratio throughout their careers. Still, Rodgers is an outlier even amongst outliers in this category, with a completely absurd 4.52 TD/INT over his career. Having the ability to provide league-leading touchdown numbers along with single-digit interceptions makes Rodgers an under-the-radar safe fantasy option who still provides upside at the position. He's no longer the sexy option that he used to be, but he's currently being drafted outside the top-12 at the position and that's pretty much his floor. He's someone to target if you wait at the position this season.

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Outlook: A year ago, I didn't even bother to feature Smith in this space, instead writing about Drew Lock under the pretense that Smith winning the job amounted to 17 games of game management that would be of zero interest to fantasy owners. Things change. After passing for less than 200 yards in Weeks 1 and 2, Smith threw for 325 yards in Week 3, and over the remaining 14 games he'd throw for under 200 yards just twice more. His final stat line: 4,282 yards passing, 366 yards rushing, 30 TDs, and 11 INTs.

That performance netted Smith a new three-year, $75 million contract, which is quite the jump after he spent the previous eight seasons as a backup. At 32, Smith should still have some good years left, and Seattle has done a nice job of surrounding him with talent at the skill positions, including potentially one of the best top-three receiver groups in the NFL. There's a lot to like about his 2023 outlook.

Despite that, there are reasons for concern. Smith's production faded down the stretch last year, as over the final four games he passed for just 849 yards (212 per game), 4 TDs, and 3 INTs -- those numbers are much more in line with what most projected from the journeyman heading into 2022. Seattle also has a run-based DNA, and as we saw during the brief "Let Russ Cook" phase, if the numbers aren't leading to wins, Pete Carroll isn't afraid to go conservative. Consider Smith a capable QB2.

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Outlook: While Stafford was coming off the best season of his career (4,886 yards passing, 41 TDs, and a Super Bowl ring), there were less-than-ideal medical reports throughout the offseason that suggested the veteran wasn't where he (or the team) wanted him to be physically heading into 2022. As it turned out, the balky elbow that made him a risky selection for fantasy owners would be one of his lesser worries, which is never a good thing.

It began in Week 1, when Stafford absorbed seven sacks and tossed three INTs in a primetime beatdown at the hands of the Bills. Things seemed to stabilize a bit in Week 2 when he passed for 272 yards and three TDs, but that was fool's gold, and Stafford would only pass for more than one TD in a game once the rest of the way. Concussions and a neck injury brought his season to a merciful end on Nov. 20 with Stafford finishing with 2,087 yards passing, 10 TD, and 8 INTs in nine games -- that marked just the second time in the past dozen campaigns that he missed time due to injury.

Retirement was broached during the offseason, but Stafford, who was able to avoid surgery for the spinal cord contusion that led to him being shut down, elected to return for a 15th season. That answered one question, but many remain, all of which really boil down to this: how much does the 35-year-old have left in the tank?

The Rams' once-potent offense is short on established playmakers, and the offensive line will primarily be relying on a mix of unproven youth and veterans looking to turn the page on injury-filled seasons of their own. Yes, Cooper Kupp is still around, but beyond that it's unclear where Stafford can turn. While you can't count out Sean McVay's ingenuity, Stafford is no more than a mid-range QB2.

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