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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 2/3/15
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |



Another season has come to a fantastic end, but veteran dynasty owners know building a team is a year-round job.

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation, but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

When I first started playing in dynasty leagues a few years ago, I took much more of a long-term view at it than I do now. Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems foolish to consider anything past three years at any position simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2017 season. At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking each position.

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Three years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings after the NFL Draft and then update the rankings again before the start of the 2015 regular season.
 
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
QUARTERBACKS
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Andrew Luck IND 25
  2 Aaron Rodgers GB 31
Tier 2
  3 Russell Wilson SEA 26
  4 Matt Ryan ATL 29
  5 Cam Newton CAR 25
  6 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33
  7 Drew Brees NO 36
  8 Tom Brady NE 37
Tier 3
  9 Philip Rivers SD 33
  10 Matthew Stafford DET 27
  11 Tony Romo DAL 34
  12 Ryan Tannehill MIA 26
  13 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 22
  14 Peyton Manning DEN 39
Tier 4
  15 Derek Carr OAK 23
  16 Nick Foles PHI 26
  17 Colin Kaepernick SF 27
  18 Blake Bortles JAC 23
Tier 5
  19 Robert Griffin III WAS 25
  20 Eli Manning NYG 34
  21 Joe Flacco BAL 30
  22 Jay Cutler CHI 31
  23 Sam Bradford STL 27
Tier 6
  24 Andy Dalton CIN 27
  25 Mike Glennon TB 25
  26 Zach Mettenberger TEN 23
  27 Alex Smith KC 30
  28 Carson Palmer ARI 35
Tier 7
  29 Geno Smith NYJ 24
  30 Brock Osweiler DEN 24
  31 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 23
  32 EJ Manuel BUF 25
  33 Johnny Manziel CLE 22
  34 Logan Thomas ARI 23
  35 Ryan Mallett HOU 26
  36 Tom Savage HOU 24
  37 Mark Sanchez PHI 28
  38 Jimmy Clausen CAR 27
  39 Jake Locker TEN 26
  40 Brian Hoyer CLE 29
  41 Colt McCoy WAS 28
  42 Derek Anderson CAR 31
  43 Josh McCown TB 35
  44 Kirk Cousins WAS 26
  45 Austin Davis STL 25
  46 Ryan Fitzpatrick HOU 32
  47 Matt Cassel MIN 32
Tier 8
  48 Matt Moore MIA 30
  49 Connor Shaw CLE 23
  50 Sean Renfree ATL 24
 
COMMENTS
  Matt Ryan, ATL: Arrival of new OC Kyle Shanahan may be slight upgrade to former play-caller Dirk Koetter.

  Ben Roethlisberger, PIT: Has likely entered into his prime quarterbacking years and surrounded by a ton of young talent.

  Peyton Manning, DEN: Uncertain status beyond 2015 (and possibly including 2015) obviously lowers ranking.

  Derek Carr, OAK: Did a lot with very little as a rookie; expect Carr to be regular top-10 QB when supporting cast becomes NFL-caliber.

  Nick Foles, PHI: Far from certain he remains starter in Philadelphia; if he does, will again benefit from HC Chip Kelly's offense.

  Colin Kaepernick, SF: Faces uncertain future w/o HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman and aging talent at receiver.

  Blake Bortles, JAC: Hard to blame No. 3 overall pick for INT-heavy rookie year; should develop quickly as Jags continue their rebuild.

  Eli Manning, NYG: ODB's emergence helps his cause, but inconsistency keeps his ranking low.

  Joe Flacco, BAL: Loss of OC Gary Kubiak hurts, but hiring of new OC Marc Trestman increases potential for big passing numbers.

  Sam Bradford, STL: Remains one of dynasty's better buy-low QBs, although injury history substantially caps his upside.

  Mike Glennon, TB: High ranking based solely on likelihood that he get traded in the offseason.

  Carson Palmer, ARI: Age, injury history keep Palmer from a mid-teens ranking.

  Geno Smith, NYJ: New OC Chan Gailey is a serious upgrade over Marty Mornhinweg.

  Brock Osweiler, DEN: How close is Peyton to retirement?

  EJ Manuel, BUF: Still has significant issues, but figures to improve with better play-calling.

  Johnny Manziel, CLE: Completely unprepared as rookie; loses great OC in Shanahan for first-time play-caller in John DeFilippo.

  Logan Thomas, ARI: Cardinals still very much love fourth-round rookie, but owners need to realize payoff may not come until 2016.

  Ryan Mallett, HOU: Expect a camp battle in Houston; winner gets the keys to sleeping giant of an offense.

  Mark Sanchez, PHI: Proved in 2014 he can still be a starting option in the NFL, albeit a low-end one.

  Jimmy Clausen, CAR: Probably needs to be added as a potential starter in Chicago, at least until new staff makes decision on Cutler.

  Jake Locker, TEN: Inability to stay healthy, inaccuracy proved to be main downfalls; likely destined to be long-term NFL backup.

  Josh McCown, TB: Likely to serve as short-term placeholder for either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.

  Matt Moore, MIA: Could compete for starting job somewhere if he leaves Miami as a free agent this offseason.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He is also the host of USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive" and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK - Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.