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 Rankings/Projections > Dynasty Rankings  
Updated: 2/3/16
Doug Orth | Archive | Email |



Another season has come to a fantastic end, but veteran dynasty owners know building a team is a year-round job.

My offseason view on dynasty rankings is significantly different than it is during the season. For starters, my main focus in the offseason is loading up on as much proven young talent as possible. During the season, I am more concerned about what I already have on my roster and making the subtle moves necessary in order to secure a championship.

In short, potential takes on a much more significant part of dynasty rankings in the offseason than usual. Free agency reshuffles the deck every year and can allow a second-string player to emerge as the more established veteran either chases a bigger paycheck, a Super Bowl ring or both. The draft introduces a number of new variables into the fantasy equation, but can also knock a few of the veterans near the bottom of the rankings off the charts completely.

Based on the turnover rate in the NFL each year (roughly 25 percent), it seems foolish to consider anything past three years at any position simply because the odds suggest that three-fourths of the players in these rankings will be insignificant at the end of the 2018 season. At any rate, here are the main criteria I have chosen to take into consideration while ranking quarterbacks.

Considerations for QB
  • Talent
  • Four years of solid (or better) production remaining
  • Age
  • Age/skill of supporting cast
  • Durability
  • Proven consistency
  • Coaching/scheme stability/situation
These rankings are for PPR leagues, where each touchdown is worth six points. I will release my next set of rankings after the NFL Draft and then update the rankings again before the start of the 2016 regular season.

 
Upside = Upside   Risk = Risk
QUARTERBACKS
Chg Rank Player Tm Age
  1 Cam Newton CAR 26
  2 Russell Wilson SEA 27
  3 Andrew Luck IND 26
  4 Aaron Rodgers GB 32
Tier 2
  5 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 33
  6 Blake Bortles JAC 24
  7 Derek Carr OAK 24
  8 Philip Rivers SD 34
  9 Jameis Winston TB 22
  10 Marcus Mariota TEN 22
Tier 3
  11 Tom Brady NE 38
  12 Carson Palmer ARI 36
  13 Drew Brees NO 37
  14 Andy Dalton CIN 28
  15 Ryan Tannehill MIA 27
  16 Matthew Stafford DET 28
  17 Eli Manning NYG 35
  18 Matt Ryan ATL 30
Tier 4
  19 Tyrod Taylor BUF 26
  20 Kirk Cousins WAS 27
  21 Tony Romo DAL 35
  22 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 23
Tier 5
  23 Joe Flacco BAL 31
  24 Sam Bradford PHI 28
  25 Ryan Fitzpatrick NYJ 33
  26 Alex Smith KC 31
  27 Jay Cutler CHI 32
Tier 6
  28 Brock Osweiler DEN 25
  29 Colin Kaepernick SF 28
  30 Brian Hoyer HOU 30
  31 Nick Foles LAR 27
  32 Josh McCown CLE 36
  33 Robert Griffin III WAS 26
  34 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 24
  35 Mike Glennon TB 26
  36 Zach Mettenberger TEN 24
  37 AJ McCarron CIN 25
Tier 7
  38 Chase Daniel KC 29
  39 Bryce Petty NYJ 24
  40 Brett Hundley GB 22
  41 Garrett Grayson NO 24
  42 Sean Mannion LAR 23
  43 Peyton Manning DEN 39
  44 Tom Savage HOU 25
  45 Johnny Manziel CLE 23
  46 Ryan Mallett BAL 27
  47 Geno Smith NYJ 25
  48 Blaine Gabbert SF 26
  49 Case Keenum LAR 27
  50 Austin Davis CLE 26
 
COMMENTS
  Andrew Luck, IND: Stock is about as low as it is going to get for this long-term dynasty asset.

  Marcus Mariota, TEN: Titans' uninspiring coaching hires figure to keep offense grounded at least one more year.

  Andy Dalton, CIN: Loss of OC Hue Jackson could be a big blow to hopes of repeating 2015 breakout.

  Ryan Tannehill, MIA: New HC Adam Gase has quite the track record for getting good/great production out of quarterbacks.

  Matthew Stafford, DET: Youth is about only thing keeping dynasty stock from sinking in (likely) post-Megatron world.

  Tyrod Taylor, BUF: No long-term commitment yet from front office.

  Kirk Cousins, WAS: Impending FA - if he remains in Washington - needs Jordan Reed to stay healthy.

  Sam Bradford, PHI: Impending FA would probably do well to remain in Philly in Doug Pederson's conservative West Coast offense.

  Jay Cutler, CHI: Transition from Gase to Dowell Loggains doesn't figure to help formerly mistake-prone QB.

  Brock Osweiler, DEN: Impending FA not a sure thing to replace Peyton Manning, but the favorite to do so.

  Brian Hoyer, HOU: Almost certain to be replaced by high draft pick at some point in 2016.

  Josh McCown, CLE: With no clear-cut Day 1 starter at QB in this draft, McCown could end up starting all of 2016.

  Robert Griffin III, WAS: One of the best bets to find a new home quickly after he is released.

  AJ McCarron, CIN: Proved to be a capable starter after Dalton went down this season.

  Peyton Manning, DEN: Super Bowl 50 likely his "last rodeo".

  Johnny Manziel, CLE: Sad as it is, "Johnny Football" could have played his last NFL snap for a while.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and 2011. He is also the host of USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday. Doug regularly appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive" and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK - Washington, D.C). He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.