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7/18/01
Email Tim
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Are you the kind of fantasy football owner who goes into instant
hibernation the moment your team is mathematically eliminated from
the postseason? Do you reawaken only when you see a fantasy football
draft magazine in your peripheral vision as you search for the latest
issue of Maxim at the 7-Eleven? Well, it's time to start thinking
again. The show is about to start, and some key actors have changed
roles. In this column I will discuss a few of the key shifts in
NFL personnel and the effect they will have on fantasy performance.
Tampa Bay Lightning?
Brad Johnson is better than Shaun King. Brad Johnson is more brittle
than Chris Chandler with osteoporosis. These two eternal truths
make for some intriguing decisions. Keyshawn Johnson, Warrick Dunn,
heck, even Jacquez Green have serious fantasy value if Johnson is
healthy. The hard part is how to place their relative value in the
draft considering that it is exceptionally unlikely that Johnson
will start most of 16 games. Should King be forced to take over,
forget Green, Dunn's value suffers greatly and Keyshawn goes down
a notch. (Note I didn't mention Alstott, whose value, in my opinion,
is unaffected by the quarterback choice). So, is Keyshawn in the
same class as Moss, Harrison, Bruce et al., or not? Guess right
and you could take the league you're in; guess wrong and you might
never be in it.
KC Gets Dick
Vermeil, that is. Trent Green gets his chance in Kansas City,
in the system that led the Rams to glory. Every fantasy publication
is predicting a great year for Green, and if you aren't sold on
Tony Gonzalez yet I can't help you, so I won't bore you with the
obvious. Instead, let's focus on another player with big upside--Priest
Holmes. Holmes is a very talented back, who always seems to be every
team's second choice to start. Well, in KC he is all they have at
RB. Last year's committee was a disaster. Regardless of his activity
in the passing game, Holmes will face defenses who will never put
8 men in the box. In that style of offense, the passing game comes
first, leading to second half rushing. Holmes should excel in this
role.
The fantasy GM of the year award will go to the owner who successfully
identifies the number 2 WR in KC. That position is bound to benefit
under the Martz style offensive system. The offensive coordinator,
Al Saunders, coached the STL wideouts last year and could have a
soft spot for Tony Horne. Horne is a monster return man with little
experience at receiver. Derrick Mayes could fill this role but his
historical record doesn't fill me with confidence. My boldest prediction
here? The Chiefs sign Terry Glenn, prompting a sobbing Dick Vermeil
to get in touch with his feminine side. The Chiefs are tight on
cap money, so this may just be my personal fantasy (no, not sexual).
However, any quality receiver in the #2 spot will have good numbers.
Sylvester Morris would have filled this role well but for injury.
Dear Trent Letter
Why would anyone ever dump a quarterback who led you to the
Super Bowl title? Because he's Trent Dilfer. Elvis Grbac will be
a viable fantasy starter in Baltimore this year; he has a ton of
offensive weapons, he has self-proclaimed offensive genius Brian
Billick for a coach, and his defense will give him plenty of chances
to score. It is hard to believe that a team with Jamal Lewis, Travis
Taylor, Shannon Sharpe and Qadry Ismail would have had trouble scoring
last year. There are only two reasons for it-- Dilfer and Tony Banks.
Both are gone.
Speaking of Pretty Tony
Banks has a dynamic arm, but has failed to grasp the leadership
role inherent in the position he plays. In St. Louis, he was surrounded
by no-talent slugs, but how do you explain the Baltimore scoring
drought? One tremendous game early last season is about all of which
this man's resume can boast. Now, Jerry Jones gives him the pressure-packed
job of succeeding Troy Aikman in Dallas. It's like buying a ready-made
scapegoat. Dallas fans will quickly figure out that Banks is not
Aikman. Then it's all over. The effect? Emmitt's game will suffer
to the extent that Banks can't move the team down the field. Joey
Galloway and Rocket Ismail will have inconsistent years. Their speed
will enable Banks to air it out, creating big play potential. However,
Banks' inability to pass a football accurately in 7-yard increments
makes the point production hard to predict on a week-to-week basis.
I would hate to have to make that guess each week.
Turnaround in San Diego
The Falcons went from last in the NFC West to the Super Bowl
in '98. The Rams did it in '99. How big a turnaround can the Chargers
make? I don't predict Super Bowl, but consider this offense from
a fantasy football perspective. Flutie at QB, Tomlinson at RB, Jones
at TE and Conway at WR. Not the Rams, perhaps, but very respectable,
if all stay healthy (BIG IF on Conway). They play a last place schedule
to boot. Flutie has talent, can run and knows how to win games.
Tomlinson is a special back. Jones is superb. And, if Conway takes
his cue from these guys and gets interested in giving an effort,
you might be in the unusual position of drafting a Charger this
year without feeling that incredible shame you usually feel.
Parts is Parts
The other rookie RB to watch, Michael Bennett, is compared
to Robert Smith, the part-time player he replaces in Minnesota.
Let's hope that comparison is based on his football performance
only. I failed to hop on the Daunte Culpepper bandwagon last pre-season.
I won't make that mistake this year. Bennett will succeed in that
offense because he is the right kind of explosive back to fit the
role required. Minnesota must have him succeed if they are to succeed.
As for the knock on Bennett in some publications that Moe Williams
could steal goal line carries, let me ask one question: When was
the last time you saw Robert Smith get a goal line carry?
Now, for Rank Speculation: Finally, as a bonus to you, the reader:
the
final score of this year's Super Bowl-- Rams 47 Broncos 13.
:: comments to tim
wichmer
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