9/6/00
Email Tim
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With apologies to those players I will be discussing in
this column, I would like to talk about some players with good fantasy
potential who went undrafted in many drafts this year. As the old
saying goes, one man's garbage is another man's treasure.
All of the following players went undrafted in two separate 168
player drafts in which I participated. All of them have some risk,
of course (or they would have been drafted), but have tantalizing
up-sides.
Fred Beasley, FB, SF
It is hard to believe that no one drafted this guy. I had him
rated in the top 25 running backs in my draft, but even I didn't
have the confidence in that rating to take him. Don't expect multiple
touchdown weeks from him every week, but he is clearly the goal
line choice in SF, and can catch the ball. Excellent bye week starter
because he won't get skunked.
Tony Richardson, RB, KC
By the time you read this, he will probably be claimed by someone
else. In our drafts, everyone took Cloud as the KC alternative.
KC always runs, and Richardson has more talent than anyone else.
His value drops if they move him full time to FB, but he's a decent
#3 starter in most leagues.
Robert Chancey, RB, SD
I'm cheating a little here because one owner in one draft of
ours picked him up late-- the reward? Thirteen points this week.
How about those who bet on Fazande (drafted in both leagues)? He
has already been cut by both teams. With Chancey, look to get about
60-70 yards a week and a score every other week.
James Allen, RB, CHI
How are you Curtis Enis owners feeling after week 1? Better? Or
worse?
Mike Anderson, RB, DEN
After witnessing first hand the track meet in St. Louis, I can say
that the Denver offense looks mighty fine. With Gary out and TD
coming off surgery, rehab and now a nagging ankle injury, Anderson
is the new beneficiary of a great offensive scheme. Definitely risky
at this point, but if Terrell misses significant time this guy will
be the steal of the year.
Tiki Barber, RB, NYG
I am listing him because he was not drafted and doubtless someone
in your league has snatched him up. I am writing to tell you to
let them do it. Don't abandon the Dayne train yet. Look who got
the carries. Who do you think will be the short yardage back? Not
Barber. Barber had a nice day against a poor defense. He is a change
of pace back. He will have one good game out of ten, and the other
nine will be brutal.
Ike Hilliard, WR, NYG
Hilliard is just coming into his own, and he and Toomer complement
each other well. Kerry Collins, when sane & sober, fires the ball
well. The Giants offense is much improved and now has a legitimate
running game. That bodes well for Hilliard.
Bobby Engram, WR, CHI
Yes, he went undrafted in both of our leagues. Is this a league
for the developmentally challenged, you ask? Maybe. However, Chicago
will score points this year, so if Engram is out there, get him.
Everyone knows Robinson is the stud there, but Engram consistently
puts up numbers. Look for an especially good week against Tampa
Bay, as Robinson will draw coverage, and the Bears won't be able
to run.
Shawn Jefferson, WR, ATL
This pick is only as good as Chris Chandler's skull is thick. If
the latter cracks, so will the former.
Reggie Kelly, TE, ATL
I am listing Kelly so I have a tight end included. With Santiago
gone, he will be the beneficiary. He also has less downside than
Jefferson should the quarterback die.
Next, a word about quarterbacks. There were really no quality NFL
starters who went undrafted in our drafts. The following are players
who have prime opportunities to succeed if they can start, and are
behind oft-injured or shaky starters: Ray Lucas (NYJ), Neil O'Donnell
(TEN), Jeff Lewis (CAR), Trent Dilfer (BAL), Gus Frerotte (DEN),
and (honorable mention because until now Favre would never be considered
an injury threat) Matt Hasselbeck (GB).
I realize that this foray into giving real owner advice is dangerous.
Use your common sense in picking up one or more of these guys, but
they should at least be considered. My personal belief that there
is a greater risk in standing pat than in making too many moves.
And finally, realizing that what follows is completely irrelevant
to the subject of this piece, I want to thank and give credit to
Joe Bryant for his Value Based Drafting System, which has received
considerable ink on this and other sites. I knock my own drafting
skills in public, but they really aren't that bad. However, I usually
go with flow and hunch quite a bit. Sometimes it works well, sometimes
it's a disaster. Anyway, I decided to experiment with VBD this year.
Using my own projections with a baseline of worst starter at each
position, I consistently grabbed players I had rated much higher
than where I actually took them. The payoff? Well, the early returns
are promising. This week I scored over 100 points in both of my
leagues. The only thing that worries me now is that I don't feel
the urge to purge 75% of my roster after the first week. There's
something scary about that.
:: comments to tim
wichmer
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