Over seventy percent of the season is complete and the time
has arrived to begin planning next year's draft. If you have been
astute, you have been checking out some of the developing talent
and deciding whether or not the existing talent will hold up for
another season. A strategy you may want to consider, in getting
an early start to next season, is to look at the draft and the season
the same way investors look at money markets. In particular the
stock market.
There are many parallels between the market and a fantasy draft.
If players and teams are looked at as investments, they are very
similar. Players can be rated as SUPER BLUE CHIP, BLUE CHIP, INITIAL
PUBLIC OFFERINGS, BOTTOM FEEDERS and HOT NEW ISSUES as they share
many of the characteristics of their monetary counter parts. Owners
fall into the categories of VALUE INVESTORS, SPECULATORS, MOMENTUM
INVESTORS and PLUNGERS. If you can begin to look at your team as
a portfolio, and your league as the pool of investment sharks, then
you may be able to plan more accurately and improve your possible
performance in the ensuing season.
Before you even begin to track this year's draft and free agent
market, think about what kind of investor you profile you seem to
fit. Of course a solid portfolio depends on being all of these types
of investors, but I think you will find that one of these profiles
may suit a dominant side of your draft/investment personality.
When left between a selection of two players, one being a reliable
veteran, and the other being a possible up and coming star, you
select the latter, then you are a Value Investor. Whether it is
a coaching change, a recent acquisition, or a shift towards the
positive for a team at the end of the season, you reason this player
is ready to blossom. If you can be the one to grab him, you will
be the first to cash in and reap the rewards of a major acquisition.
The list of players here would exclude all rookies, but would include
first year pros. Realizing the coaching change at Buffalo, when
many experts had written off O.J., would have been akin to buying
Standard Oil before the split up of the corporation. Scoring the
Come Back Player of the Year on offense is like buying Coca-Cola
in 1920 at ten dollars per share. Being more current, players like
Charlie Garner, Stephen Davis, Jon Kitna, Marvin Harrison, Issac
Bruce and Duce Staley have realized steady to formidable seasons
because of changes in their playing realm. There is an element of
risk here, as with anywhere in the market, players like Ryan Leaf,
Lawrence Phillips and Rick Mirer will probably be mediocre to losers
for the rest of their careers. For some people environment will
never overcome being a head case. If you see yourself as primarily
a Value Investor, do your homework. Check the histories of coaches
and systems with performance of individual players and see how well
odd balls have done under their tutelage and rely upon your gut
educated guess. As a Value Investor you may like to take risks,
but it is backed by facts, Speculators rely just upon their ego
and their desire to obtain the latest Initial Public Offering first.
Speculators are the biggest risk takers, the biggest winners
and the biggest losers in the market. If you were the first to take
Ricky Williams this year or saw the potential of Edgerrin
James and David Boston, then you are probably a big time Speculator.
If you took one of them in the top three rounds then you may even
be a Plunger. Speculators read the press clippings, check draft
position and then go for it. James is doing great and Boston and
Williams may well be great, one day. In the market these investors
live for the discovery of an Initial Public Offering. They would
have been the first to buy Martha Stewart or ebay. Initial Public
Offerings have both tremendous risk and staggering yields. Still
for every Terrell Davis there are two or three Desmond Howards.
Many of these top round picks hold out of training camp and they
have never been tested in the pro level of speed and aggressiveness.
There are more, "coulda beens" the Super Blue Chippers in NFL history.
Blue-Chippers and Super Blue Chippers is the realm of the Tight
Faced Investor.
The Tight Faced Investor will draft where they feel the draft
market is most limited to insure a return on their investment. They
will stick to their charts and go Blue Chip to Super Blue Chip no
matter what new talent is in the offering. The difference between
a Blue Chip and a Super Blue Chip is a fine line. A Blue Chip player
will get their 100+ yards per game and ho hum touchdown with the
occasional great performance. In the market "Big Blue" (IBM) is
a traditional Super Blue while GM is among the regular Blue Chippers.
In fantasy term the Super Blue Chip has a great performance virtually
every week. Given the choice between Randy Moss and Chris Carter
last year, the Tight Faced Investor would have taken Chris Carter.
These investors see themselves as practical people, not risk takers.
They have a distinct strategy entering the draft and will stick
to their set draft lists no matter what comes. Cracking their code
will allow you to adjust your draft selections and beat them at
their own game. The person with the Tight Face will scoff at Speculators
and look with disgust at the Plungers. In their mind these risk
takers might as well use a dartboard for their draft selections
for all of the return they will get on their investments. Tight
Faced Investors are merely amused by Free Market Investors.
The Free Market Investor views the entire market and invests
according to trends they see in the future. They are people who
shop the free agent and trade markets looking for the player with
the spotty past, but given the right environment, the player will
produce. They are slightly different from Value Investors because
they are seeking players who have a level of risk, but may have
shown virtually undetected improvements in attitude or work ethic.
At the beginning of the season Tyrone Wheatley, Jeff George or Curt
Warner could only have been taken by a Free Market Investor. The
Free Market Investor is seeking the Bottom Feeders of the league.
Players, who are having trouble, but could have an exceptional three
or four games during the season. With a collection of these players,
and the knowledge to play them at the right time, this type of investor
can have success with a minimum of investment. Free Market Investors
can reek havoc in an auction league. All investment is risk and
strategy and, perhaps, the Momentum Investor employs one of the
more interesting strategies.
A Momentum Investor is seeking a total team effort, literally.
They are not so much seeking an individual player as they are seeking
a team on the rise, or already there and then selecting the individuals
from the offense regardless of their lack of marquee value and disappointing
past. Investors like this do get burned, but many get solid performing
players with little in the way of severe peaks and valleys. These
investors, in recent years, have selected the players on the offenses
of Green Bay, San Francisco, Denver, Minnesota, New England and
Seattle. The Momentum Investor would be having a field day this
year if they had managed to gain the St. Louis offense. Some of
these investors will take every piece of the offense if they have
the opportunity. They may not play the entire offense weekly, but
if the team is up against a weak opponent you can almost guarantee
they will start the entire bunch. The portfolio of the Momentum
Investor would have strong, stable stocks in both the DOW and the
NASDAQ. There are no guarantees in the investment or fantasy world,
but these could be some of the solid investments for next season.
The lofty altitudes of the Super Blue Chippers have under gone massive
change this year due to injury or performance. It remains to be
seen if Brett Favre, Jamal Anderson or Terrell Davis can reacquaint
themselves with the thin air. For the moment they seem to have been
replaced with the likes of Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning and Kurt
Warner. Issac Bruce seems to have made an appearance after spending
a couple of years as a Bottom Feeder and perhaps Marshal Faulk has
found a home in St. Louis. The verdict may not be unanimous on Edgerrin
James, but he, along with Eric Moulds and Stephen Davis may join
the eagles and soar to levels beyond most of the Initial Public
Offerings.
Ron Dayne may be the brightest of next years Initial Public
Offerings, but his future is not certain. His value may rise because
he remained for his senior year, but the NFL is not the Big Ten.
Peter Warrick may be the best receiver in college football, but
he seems to have some problems off of the field. He has said all
of the right things to be reinstated, but what future millionaire
"team" player risks the entire season for $400 worth of clothing
at huge discounts? Investors looking for the best in Initial Public
Offerings should watch the bowl season carefully and follow Mel
Keiper's draft selections. It is a huge step from being a new comer
to becoming a Blue Chip Player.
Germane Crowell may have risen to the level of the Blue Chip
Player. He has been more then a solid replacement for Herman Moore
and it remains to be seen if Moore can attain the level of Blue
Chip after the last few seasons. Randy Moss is a tough call. Some
investors rate him as a Super Blue Chipper, but this year he seems
to have been over shadowed by Chris Carter. No matter the category,
Randy Moss is an excellent player to have on your roster. JJ Johnson
appears to have taken the step to Blue Chip as has Jon Kitna and,
perhaps Ricky Williams. Those that have dropped to the level of
Blue Chip may include Brett Favre, Antonio Freeman and Emmitt Smith.
Others that have re-entered the Blue Chip realm include Eric Rhett,
Ed McCaffery and Jeff George. (If George has finally grown up. The
jury is out on this one.) These players could one day rise to the
level of Super Blue, but they may not be worth a first round selection.
Bottom Feeders never deserve a first round pick.
Among the successful Bottom Feeders, who may move to Blue Chip are
Charlie Garner, Duce Staley and Doug Flutie. They have proven
themselves over the season and appear poised to make the next move
up. Terrill Owens seems to have moved to this level, but the move
may not have been of his own making. San Francisco needs to have
a quarterback and new blood could improve his stock. With the right
QB Jacques Green could be an outstanding receiver, but he is not
going to get there with Trent Dilfer. On the other hand, Trent Dilfer
could be the ultimate Bottom Feeder quarterback. Sometimes getting
benched and then injured will help a player grow. It did not hurt
Vinny Testaverde and, with his injury this year, Vinny could become
the Hot New Issue once again next season.
Hot New Issues are tough to call, but interesting to watch. Greg
Hill has had some flashes of stardom, but seems a little insecure
about the system and his place in it. If he is not looking over
his shoulder, and survives the year, he could be "Bottom Feeder
of the New Millennium". Terrance Wilkins of the Colts may
not be a bad pick up as a third or fourth receiver on your depth
chart and Cory Bradford appears to be getting his share of catches
in the Packer Offense. Other individual players are developing and
so are some teams. This makes the Momentum Investor smile.
The Rams have to be the surprise team of the season. The likes of
Kurt Warner, Issac Bruce and Marshal Faulk are great selections
for any team. They are all running hot and show no signs of age.
The Colts are another Momentum Investor dream. Peyton Manning
has come into his own and, after years as a Hot New Issue, Marvin
Harrison has stood the league on its ear. Edgerrin James is young
and tough, but constant playing on astro turf can wear a running
back out. The Barry Sanders of the world don't come around every
day, so you might as well take them when they are young and healthy.
Seattle appears to have some momentum as a team and they are under
their first year with Mike Holmgren. The continued growth of Kitna
and the possible return of Galloway next year make them very attractive.
To be on top of things they better begin to search for a future
replacement for Ricky Wattars. Depending on the stability of Jeff
George, the Vikings could be an offense machine on into next season.
The 49ers, Packers and Patriots seem to have dropped in their level
of consistent returns, but only two on the investment next season.
Still, no matter how much you study, what investment strategy you
use or how many Super Blue Chippers may be in your arsenal, no one
is exempt from a, Black Sunday."
In the first few weeks of this season we saw Jamal Anderson, Vinny
Testaverde, Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, and Steve Young go down
for the season or perhaps their careers. Injuries are a part of
the business as are aging and coaching changes. These are all factors,
which have to be considered when drafting players, but the risk
is half of the fun. What can give you the edge in your league is
research and the knowledge to plan ahead. Give yourself a dose of
conviction to know the path you have chosen is correct, and the
season could be yours. To thyne own self be true, but get the edge
on everyone else and recognize their draft strategies. Keep your
strategies close, but your opponent's strategies even closer.
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