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12/18/01
Email Andy
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If you've had a good draft, and know what you're doing, making the
fantasy football playoffs can sometimes seem like a given. Now,
that's not entirely true; I realize that luck is a large part of
fantasy football, but at least in my experience, more often than
not if I DON'T make the playoffs, it's because I screwed up -- either
by drafting an injury risk (who then proceeded to get injured),
making careless roster decisions, or not paying enough attention
to my team. (Easy enough to do when you've got several.) This year,
though, I started out 6-0 in two of my three leagues. When that
happens, you're pretty much already thinking about playoff matchups
before Halloween.
Which is why the playoffs themselves are so scary. Because the playoffs
don't care if you started off 6-0. They don't care if you whipped
your league all season long. They don't care if you've got the deepest
team and the best bye week options. It's your starting lineup against
his, and you can be one and done as quickly as the defending Super
Bowl Champion 49ers in '95, the 13-3 Broncos in '96, or the 13-3
Titans in 2000. One bad week is all it takes to turn your dreams
of a championship into a nightmare. Take last year, when the guy
lucky enough to keep an injured Fred Taylor on his roster all season
reaped the rewards in the playoffs by kicking your ass. Take the
stunning weeks put up -- just once or twice, mind you -- this very
season by guys like Marty Booker, David Patten, and Corey Dillon.
Face a mediocre playoff team that gets one 37-point week out of
some nobody, and you can kiss that championship goodbye.
Here's where I tell you how to avoid this fearsome scenario. All
the secrets are below.
Sorry, just kidding. There is no answer. It can happen to anyone.
It does happen to everyone. All you can do is hope this year it
won't be your turn.
And all I can offer is my own solutions, mediocre though they may
be. They're not gold, but they work for me.
Don't Bench Your Studs
Losing is painful. Losing with your best players on your bench is
even worse. That's why I'll be starting Torry Holt over Jeff Graham
and Raghib Ismail this week. The latter two guys have been on a
roll. Holt is coming off a cold week. But dammit, he's not going
to be on my bench if he has a big game. I'd rather lose with him
and say, well, I played my best and it didn't work out, then sit
here saying, Sweet Christmas, what was I thinking starting Graham
over Holt? A related issue: go with the guys who have been doing
it all year over the guys who have been doing it for one week. Todd
Bouman over Rich Gannon? Alex Van Pelt over Aaron Brooks? No and
no. You didn't get to the playoffs with Bouman or Pelt, but you
can bet they'll get you out of them if you make a nutty decision
like that.
Don't Overanalyze
Yes, you're one and done. Yes, the playoffs are different than the
regular season. But for you, for your decision-making, it's still
the same. You're still starting the same number of guys. You should
still start your BEST guys. Don't get hung up thinking about stuff
like trash-talking (e.g., Shannon Sharpe vs. the Steelers, Jerome
Bettis vs. the Ravens) or other intangibles that probably won't
affect fantasy stats. Here's an example: San Francisco safety Lance
Schulters challenged the Rams WRs last week before the Rams-Niners
game. The Rams came out and blew the Niners off the field, 27-14
in a game that probably wasn't that close. But did any of the Rams
WRs have a good game? You know, besides #4 Ricky Proehl? If you
started him, congratulations, but I have to ask, are you in an 18-team
league?
Take A Loss Like A Man (or woman, if applicable)
No whining and moaning on the message boards about Mike Martz lifting
Marshall Faulk with a 35-3 lead, or Kris Brown's 3 missed field
goals, or Ray Lucas vulturing touchdowns from Jay Fiedler, or --
and here's a really popular one these days -- Mike Holmgren's decision
to bench Shaun Alexander. NFL coaches don't play fantasy football,
and they don't care. Their jobs are on the line and they're making
the decisions for the good of their teams, not yours.
Wait 'til Next Year
Because at the end of it all, aside from having a few tall beers
at the corner bar and grudgingly rejoining the non-fantasy world
(I know, it's scary. But there's good in it too! Like, the ACTUAL
NFL playoffs! And of course Fantasy Football Playoff Challenges),
what the hell else can you do?
Good luck.
:: comments to andy
richardson
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