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6/22/01
Email Tim
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I just hate to lose!
I cannot stand it. I would rather take a swim with a pool of sharks
than lose a game. I am a very competitive person in nature. Whether
it is a full court basketball game or just a game of cards, I cannot
stand losing. This is the reason for everything I do in fantasy
football. All of the mock drafts. All of the statistical research.
All of draft day preparation. These are all done because in fantasy
football it is so much harder to control victory than in real sports.
As fantasy owners, we can only draft and send in our lineups (along
with free agency and trades). The players do all of the work. This
is why the preparation is so important. No preparation for your
draft would be like a player coming into training camp fifty pounds
overweight. It makes the goal of a successful season hard to achieve.
Draft day is not necessarily the key to a great season, but it heads
you in the right direction. The key, however, to a great draft is
how you do in the middle rounds. Drafting Edgerrin James or Marshall
Faulk is great, but the middle rounds are what can win your league
for you.
I will not just rest on that one statement. This would not be any
fun unless I tried to prove it to you.
Understanding the Average
The first thing to do when comparing draft picks in the first couple
of rounds to draft picks in the middle rounds is to find the average
fantasy production for each round. To determine this, I am going
to use the average draft picks for all the ESPN leagues. This will
give us a basic idea of who went in each round of a normal Internet
league in 2000.
I have excluded any selections that were Units or Kickers. The reason
for this is Units and Kickers generally do not get drafted in the
first few rounds. I am looking to compare positions of a similar
type.
Below is a chart of the average fantasy production for a normal
performance league based on the ESPN leagues' average picks from
the 2000 drafts. This is presuming it is a 12-team league. So the
first round is picks 1-12, the second round is picks 13-24, and
so on. This tells us how well the players selected in each round
did in 2000 on the average.
If you equate these totals to fantasy statistics, the first few
rounds would look like this for a running back:
- 1st Round: 1820 Total Yards and 12 Total Touchdowns
- 2nd Round: 1250 Total Yards and 8 Total Touchdowns
- 3rd Round: 1280 Total Yards and 8 Total Touchdowns
The middle rounds would look like this:
- 8th Round: 660 Total Yards and 4 Total Touchdowns
- 9th Round: 640 Total Yards and 4 Total Touchdowns
- 10th Round: 600 Total Yards and 5 Total Touchdowns
This is what would be expected for the average fantasy totals for
each round. The first round seems to be the safest draft pick. The
second and third rounds are a little more risky, but still have
some nice fantasy production. Rounds eight, nine and ten are players
that will be pretty much sitting on a fantasy bench.
Back Down to Value
What it comes down to is value. In each round of a draft, a fantasy
owner wants to get the best value pick possible.
Suppose the player selected in the first round gets:
- 1500 Yards Rushing
- 300 Yards Receiving
- 12 Touchdowns
That is a very nice season, but all this does for an owner is keep
up on pace with every other owner in their league. A great first
round pick will only help you to not start behind everyone else's
team. 1800 Total yards and 12 touchdowns is what is expected of
a high round pick. It is the unexpected surprises that win a league.
In comparison, the player selected in the eighth round gets:
- 1200 Yards Rushing
- 250 Yards Receiving
- 10 Touchdowns
This seems like a step down from the first round pick. This is not
the case. It is a huge value when comparing it to the normal eighth
round pick. In the Statistical analysis below, it shows the difference
between the actual production and the average production for the
first and eighth rounds:
- 252 Actual Fantasy Points - 254 Average 1st Round Fantasy
Pts = -2 Net Difference
- 205 Actual Fantasy Points - 90 Average 8th Round Fantasy Pts
= +115 Net Difference
As you can see, the advantage is huge if you can draft a good player
in the middle rounds. When you select a good fantasy producer in
round one, you are doing what 90% of your opponents are doing. Though
when you select a good fantasy producer in round eight, you are
doing what 70% of your opponents could NOT do. This puts you ahead
of game!
Fantasy football is about having a better team than your opponents.
Drafting well in the middle rounds gives your team a better chance
at doing that.
Huddle Up
- Don't expect for Cade McNown to be starting for the Bears
anytime soon. He is just getting buried deeper on the depth
every day in minicamps. It has been asked how Jim Miller or
Shane Matthews could possibly be named the starter. After all,
both would be just backups on most NFL teams. The problem is
McNown would not even be on a lot of rosters with the way he
has performed the last two years.
- I like Warrick Dunn as a talent. In fact last year, I stated
that I thought he would rush for more than 900 yards and receive
for another 400 yards. All of that being said, Dunn will not
get 25-30 carries a game in 2001. It is foolish to think just
because he had a couple of good games, he will become Eddie
George. Tampa Bay coaches will give Mike Alstott more carries.
From a football standpoint, that would be the smart thing to
do. It is harder for defenses to defend two different style
runningbacks. Tampa Bay's offense is at it's best when both
Dunn and Alstott are running the ball.
- I may be one of the few, but I am a little weary of Eddie
George. He has been a great player for Tennessee, but all his
carries might begin to catch up with him. I never believed that
age is the reason a runningback goes on the decline. I always
believed that the number of carries is the reason a runningback's
performance decreases. George has averaged 352 carries a season
in his five-year career. In that time, he also started 78 games.
In comparison, Terrell Davis averaged 336 carries a year for
his first four seasons. In his fifth year, he ended up getting
injured for the season. I just think the law of averages is
that George gets injured this year.
- If you are looking for a couple of drafts with an analysis
of each pick, check out the following:
Maybe I am a bit biased, but both have excellent analysis and
plenty of Fanex Owners to boot.
- I have a fantasy football project in the works. It will be
very in-depth and as always free for everyone to view. It should
be available sometime in July. I guarantee it will be worth
your while to check out. Stay Tuned for more information on
it.
Thank you to everyone for all the emails I received in the last
several weeks. As usual, I welcome any questions or comments...
:: comments to tim
ludwig
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