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7/30/01
Email Tim
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Over the next few weeks, we'll be analyzing a good portion of every
position. We've assigned numerous writers to cover every player
we ranked so you'll get multiple opinions of 150 players. We've
also tallied up the average projections and rankings for each position.
One of the best tools is the fantasy values that each player has
assigned so you'll have a great idea of how big the drop-offs are
at each position.
FantasyRef is sponsoring
the whole project.
The Writers involved in the FantasyRef Forecast will be:
- Tim Ludwig - FantasyRef Forecast Editor
- Gary Bellinger - FantasyRef Writer
- Matt Cummings - FantasyRef Writer
- Al Lackner - AskTheCommish.com
- Terry Cannon - First
and Web
- Mark Bond - JackPotSports.com
- David Gonos - FantasyRef Forecast Owner
We will rank the players in the following system:
- Every 10 yards rushing or receiving is worth one fantasy point
- Every 20 passing yards is worth one fantasy point
- Every rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six fantasy points
- Every passing touchdown is worth six fantasy points
- Every extra point is worth one fantasy point
- Every field goal is worth three fantasy points
| 1. R A N D Y M O
S S: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1550 |
16 |
34 |
0 |
254 |
|
Bond's Scouting Report
Moss is the most frightening offensive player in football. He is
tall, fast, very athletic, and has good hands. If a mold were made
of the perfect wide receiver, he'd be pretty close. Add to the physical
facts an offense willing to throw the ball and a quarterback with
a cannon and you have wide receiver nirvana. There are down points
to Moss. Mainly, he has never learned to run a great pass route
and the feeling is that he never will, which means when his physical
skills go south, so will his numbers. That will be sometime after
2010. The only other hiccup is that he has some maturing to do but
his transgressions have been left on the football field and not
involved the police, which is a big change. The last three seasons
- his only seasons in the NFL - he has either been the top fantasy
wide receiver or the second fantasy wide receiver. Nothing in the
off-season steers me to believe that this will change. Someone drafting
Moss should expect 12-plus touchdowns and 1,400 yards as the minimum.
Drafters should be prepared to select him after the fifth pick but
some leagues will see him go even earlier. No one should be disappointed.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
You name the receiving category and Moss is at the head of the list.
Moss is a basketball leaper in a football uniform with speed to
burn and is the model after which all offensive coordinators want
their wide receivers to look like. If Culpepper can stay healthy,
the sky is the limit for Moss and the sky is where this high flyer
is most comfortable. He may not talk a nice game off the field like
a Jerry Rice but if you want to get the job done, especially inside
the red zone, Moss is your man. With increased emphasis on the passing
game ever more in Viking land, there is absolutely no reason why
Moss can't bust it wide open with 1500+ yards and 17 TDs or more.
Fantasy Rating: 99.0
| 2. T E R R E L L O
W E N S: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1422 |
16 |
32 |
0 |
241 |
|
Ludwig's Scouting Report
What wide receiver had the most fantasy points per game in 2000?
Randy Moss? Marvin Harrison? As surprising as it seems, Terrell
Owens had more than one and a half fantasy points greater per game
than any other wide receiver. This was not a fluke either. Owens
is a player filled with talent, passion and determination. Owens
is a nightmare match up for most defensive backs. He has the size
to out muscle most cornerbacks, but also contains the speed to beat
them deep. Owens has great hands and is most dangerous after the
catch. Owens came of age in the 1998 season with over 1000 yards
and 14 touchdowns. In 1999, he took a step back because of injuries
and the breaking in of a new quarterback. Terrell hit elite fantasy
wide receiver status last season. He averaged 110 yards and one
TD per game. For fantasy owners, he was money in the bank. All because
Jeff Garcia learned one simple fact in 2000. Just throw Terrell
the damn ball!
Bond's Scouting Report
Owens has had a few bursts of glory in his five NFL seasons. After
a solid rookie campaign, he filled the hole created by Jerry Rice's
injury to have an even better second season. Primed to takeover
in year three he flew to the top of the charts reaching the third
slot overall. Then disaster struck with injuries to Steve Young
and the 49ers passing game was in a shambles. Owens, who was also
injured in 1999, suffered terribly, as did his fantasy owners. Healthy
in 2000, he soared back to heights he had attained in 1998 and was
the third best fantasy receiver in the NFL. And that was after missing
a couple games with turf toe. Arguably, Owens - leading wide receiver
in yards after the catch (YAC) -- was the best fantasy receiver
in 2000. He is at his peak athletically, knows the system, and is
working his third year with Jeff Garcia but I am still a little
worried about his repeating the success of last season. What frightens
me is the loss of Jerry Rice and the loss of Charlie Garner. Rice
made other teams look his way, J.J. Stokes will not, which means
Owens gets doubled all over the field. If the running game cannot
repeat its success of 2000, defenses will tee-off waiting on the
pass. I am still not comfortable with Garcia. I'm not sure the 49ers
are either. Owens is third on my list of wide receivers and he figures
to go no later than mid second round. If the 49ers can run the ball,
I would feel better about the pick
Fantasy Rating: 97.5
| 3. M A R V I N H
A R R I S O N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1490 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
239 |
|
Cummings' Scouting Report
The second best wide receiver in the NFL in Fantasy terms, Harrison
is the foundation you can build your receiving corps around. He
is the favorite target of Manning's, almost to a fault, but this
guy produces each week. He will catch 100 passes and 1300 yards
easily. As everyone else knows, however, the Colts do not have a
solid #2 receiver to keep defenses honest. They drafted Reggie Wayne
from Miami, hoping he will step up into the role that players like
Terrance Wilkens, Jerome Pathon, or E.G. Green have tried and failed.
As is the case every year, if they find a great complimentary receiver,
Harrison would be that much better. He produces, and if you find
him lingering around in the second round, he would be a bargain.
Gonos' Scouting Report
Last year, Harrison was the undisputed king of WRs coming into the
draft and the preseason. He's still of the elite, but no one believes
he's above Randy Moss. Harrison has the new John Elway throwing
to him in Peyton Manning, but also has to deal with an offense that
will look towards Edgerrin James first. But with that said, he STILL
led the league with 102 catches. (And he fell from 1st to 2nd in
most people's eyes? That's just a testimony as to how good Moss
is.) He even had 2 more TDs last year than the year before. (Why
didn't Syracuse make more noise when they had Harrison, Donovan
McNabb AND Kevin Johnson?) If rookie Reggie Wayne can give Harrison
any kind of relief on the other side, which we think he will, then
Harrison could attain 115 catches once again.
Fantasy Rating: 97.0
| 4. T O R R Y H O
L T: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1655 |
10 |
30 |
0 |
228 |
|
Lackner's Scouting Report
How can you go wrong when selecting a WR from the Rams? Holt is
entering his 3rd season in the NFL, which means that he is just
at the right age to put it all together. Coming off a 82 reception/1634
yard season, Holt is primed to possibly overtake Isaac Bruce as
the team's top wide out. The only problem with Holt is that the
Rams have so many weapons; he will have to share the load. That
is indicated by his relatively paltry 6 TDs last season.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
I guess Torry Holt doesn't know it is suppose to take wide receivers
three years to break out. Torry Holt more than doubled his 1999
totals with 1635 receiving yards last season. He seemed to pick
up where he left off in college. He runs a 4.4 and is a threat to
go all the way every time he touches the ball. Holt is a very smooth
route runner. He excels on catching the deep ball. He fits into
the Ram's system perfect. He benefits from playing with both Isaac
Bruce and Marshall Faulk. He tends to see a lot of single coverage
because of this. Defenses have to play him honest. Holt seemed to
be Warner's go to target down the stretch of the 2000 season. He
had 906 receiving yards in the last eight games. The scary thing
about Torry Holt is he will get better. His upside is huge. Holt
is also a character person. He works hard on and off the field.
You will never see him taking a play off. Holt's value has been
an early third round pick in most drafts. That is a huge steal for
the numbers Torry Holt will produce in the 2001 season.
Fantasy Rating: 96.0
| 5. I S A A C B R
U C E: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1390 |
12 |
25 |
0 |
213 |
|
Cannon's Scouting Report
Thanks to an offense that gets all it's players involved, Bruce
remains fantasy power. If he continues being healthy for a third
straight season, he'll post monster numbers again. The development
of teammate Holt caused Bruce's TDs to drop. Even at that, 9-10
scores seems a reasonable expectation for the skilled Ram. Bruce
is 7th ranked on my personal draft board.
Cummings' Scouting Report
Hey, didn't you used to have a bad hammy? Yes, Reverend Ike has
proven that he knows how to stay healthy. Just three years ago,
Bruce left owners cursing and muttering under their breaths with
his injuries. He was on everyone's black list with Fred Taylor as
an All-Pro who is unable to stay injury-free. Now jump to the present.
Can we dare expect 1400 yards and 12 touchdowns in 16 games? He
has the league's best QB throwing him the ball, and the league's
best RB running the ball keeping defenses respecting the run. He
has an exciting young complimentary receiver with Torry Holt on
the other side of him. The Rams have the most exciting offense in
the league, and Bruce is just one of the many weapons in that arsenal.
A solid second round pick, he would be reliable to put up some serious
points every week for you.
Fantasy Rating: 94.5
| 6. E R I C M O U
L D S: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1425 |
11 |
25 |
0 |
211 |
|
Ludwig's Scouting Report
It is hard to believe that at one point Eric Moulds could not even
win a starting job over Quinn Early. In fact, Moulds only averaged
286 receiving yards in his first two years as a Buffalo Bill. How
times have changed. Moulds has averaged 82 receiving yards and .46
TDS a game in the last three seasons. This would equate to 1312
yards and 7.5 TDS a season. Not too bad for a player who could not
even crack the starting lineup four short years ago. Moulds is an
explosive open field runner. Moulds has great body control and a
knack for making the impossible catch look easy. He is great at
catching the ball in traffic. Moulds also excels at running after
the catch. He is the Bills offense. Every defense knows he will
get the ball, but not many can stop him. This off-season Rob Johnson
and Eric Moulds worked out together every day. They are determined
in developing the necessary timing and chemistry all great quarterback/wide
receiver tandems possess. The Bills will be switching to a quick
timing West Coast style passing game. Moulds will be the featured
wide receiver. His talents perfectly fit this scheme. I expect Moulds
to only improve on his numbers in the new offensive scheme. 1400
yards and 10 touchdowns are not out of the question.
Bond's Scouting Report:
Moulds has become the tease. He had a great season in 1998 coming
from nowhere to finish in the top-4 but the past two seasons he
has fallen on hard times. Well, that exaggerates what has happened,
but his owners can't be happy with a finish outside of the top-20
in 1999 and just inside the top-15 in 2000. People will blame most
of this on the rotating quarterback situation and we'd tend to agree
but what couldn't have helped was the fact that he was the only
player on offense - other than Doug Flutie - worth watching. The
defense did not have to concern themselves with the Buffalo running
game nor were they interested in Peerless Price. The real problem
for Moulds wasn't the yards or receptions but the fact he rarely
crossed the stripe. Moulds wasn't targeted very often in the red
zone and that was partly due to the fact that the Bills weren't
in the red zone very often. The Bills were in the bottom half of
the league in touchdowns scored. In addition, Moulds was tied for
second lowest scoring receiver with over 70 receptions. Can the
departure of Flutie help? Maybe. Will the new West Coast offense
help? Definitely. If Rob Johnson can stay afoot, Moulds is the ideal
receiver to play a system where running ability after the catch
is primary. Ah, but the question is whether Rob Johnson can stay
afoot and make the quick decisions necessary. So I like Moulds,
hate Johnson and think that if you can get Moulds in the fourth
round you've got it made.
Fantasy Rating: 94.0
| 7. R O D S M I T
H: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1495 |
9 |
70 |
0 |
210 |
|
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Smith skyrocketed to 1600 yards last year and has amassed 3800+
in the last three years and is showing no signs of fading. Smith
will make a very solid #1 wide receiver on any fantasy or NFL team
and in the current setup in Denver, which should be a model for
all around the league, he is a lock for yet another Pro Bowl season.
Smith just turned 30 last year so he should be able to add 2 or
3 more Pro Bowl selections to his resume. With Ed McCaffrey lined
up on the other side, Smith should have no problem pulling in another
100+ catches although double digits in TDs will be difficult with
so many weapons at Mike Shanahan's disposal. The only drawback of
drafting Smith is that Denver's bye week falls in what is normally
most fantasy league's championship week.
Cummings' Scouting Report
Call him "Mr. Consistency." You know what to expect from him no
matter who is throwing him the ball - around 75 catches, over 1000
yards, and around 8 touchdowns. He put up those numbers with Elway,
then Griese, and when Griese was injured, Ferrotte. Ed McCaffrey
and Smith put up similar numbers every year, as defenses have to
respect Denver's running game. Smith has that big play capability
and is a speed demon, allowing Griese to spread the defenses to
loosen the running game. Smith is traditionally overlooked by many
people but shouldn't be. Considering his durability and his consistency
regardless of who throws the ball and who runs the ball, you can't
get more of a sure thing in the third round of any draft.
Fantasy Rating: 94.0
| 8. J O E H O R N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1280 |
10 |
14 |
0 |
189 |
|
Lackner's Scouting Report
If ever there was a guy coming off a career year, it is Joe Horn.
Last year in his 5th year in the league (and in a new city in New
Orleans), Horn matured into one of the top WRs in the sport. The
question is: Is Joe Horn just a flash in the pan? Was last year
just a fluke, or is it a season upon which he can build? I do not
pretend to know the answers to those questions. But I will say that
all of the ingredients are there for Horn to have another quality
season. I like the QB situation in New Orleans: Either Jeff Blake
OR Aaron Brooks has the arm to get the ball downfield to Horn. Last
year, I went on record as predicting that Horn would have a breakout
year, and he did just that with 94 receptions for 1300+ yards and
8 TDs. This year, I am being a little more conservative in my prediction.
I think he will have a quality season with 80+ catches, 1100 + yards,
and he could duplicate his 8 TDs of last year.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
When you look up the definition of a fantasy sleeper, you see will
Joe Horn's picture. Horn was the type of player who made fantasy
teams great in 2000. A late round pick that turns into a fantasy
all-star. Horn came from the Kansas City Chiefs after getting 586
receiving yards and 6 TDs in 1999. He immediately became a starter
on the New Orleans Saints. He responded with 1340 yards and 8 TDs
in 2000. Horn gives the Saints the threat of the long ball. He had
five TDS of 40 or more yards last season. Horn seemed to get more
comfortable in the Saints' offense as the year went on. He had 830
yards in the last eight games of the 2000 season. Horn did all of
this with no real second receiver starting opposite of him. The
signing of Albert Connell should help free up Horn. Joe Horn is
the real deal. He has the combination of Aaron Brooks and Jeff Blake
throwing to him in 2001. He also has the running and receiving threats
of Ricky Williams and Deuce Mcallister in the backfield. He has
the previously mentioned Albert Connell as his number two wide receiver.
All of this adds up for another Pro Bowl type season for Horn.
Fantasy Rating: 92.0
| 9. D E R R I C K
A L E X A N D E R: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1242 |
10 |
30 |
0 |
187 |
|
Cannon's Scouting Report
The once respectable Alexander earned fantasy attention in early
2000 thanks to a special QB-WR connection between himself and Grbac.
With a new passer Green in town, it's easy to expect even more from
Alexander, but tame your excitement. It takes time harvest a relationship
that earns 75+ receptions. After a career year, expect a drop off
for Alexander for at least the first few months of the season.
Cummings' Scouting Report
Last year Alexander fell to the middle rounds in most drafts. Do
you think owners will let him slide that far again? A mid- to late-
round sleeper, Alexander produced a career year, posting numbers
of just under 80 catches for almost 1400 yards. Not only were fantasy
owners taken by surprise, so were opposing defenses. Will the league
and fantasy owners be taken by surprise again this year? Don't bet
on it. Will he put up the numbers again? Everything is in place
for him to repeat. He has a solid quarterback with Trent Green passing
him the ball; he has someone to draw any double team with Tony Gonzalez;
and he has Priest Holmes and Tony Richardson pounding the ball on
the ground. The supporting cast is in place for him to repeat. Through
seven years, everyone knew he had talent, but this exceeded everyone's
expectations - except, maybe, his own. I wouldn't expect the same
number of yards, but 10 touchdowns and 80 catches are definitely
within reason.
Fantasy Rating: 91.5
| 10. C R I S C A
R T E R: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1260 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
186 |
|
Bond's Scouting Report
I can't wait for him to retire if only because it will retire Chris
Berman's "He only catches touchdowns". Carter has been
a fantasy star since 1993 and is finally hanging them up after this
season. His consistency has been amazing. That said, I don't see
leaving the game as a motivating factor and I am nervous about the
Vikings. I think the Vikings will struggle this year and worry about
whether that will affect Carter's motivation. Too much psycho-babble,
probably, but Carter frightens me. His drop wasn't too bad from
1999 and was only affected by his lack of touchdowns. He can't get
a touchdown unless he is in the red zone as 17 of his last 22 touchdowns
have been in the red zone. He is a fourth round pick, at worst,
and could play either side of it. The best point for Carter is that
the Vikings defense should be near the bottom of the NFL and there
will be plenty of balls in the air.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Cris Carter was all set to retire this past off-season but happily
for his fantasy owners in keeper leagues, he is going to grind it
out for one more year in one of the most dynamic offenses in recent
years. Last year, at the age of 36, Carter ranked sixth in receptions
and had his second highest total in receiving yards in his career,
so there is nothing wrong with grabbing Mr. Carter on draft day
even if you are in a keeper league. With Daunte Culpepper a year
older and Robert Smith no longer around to shoulder the load, Carter
could very easily top the 100-reception mark along with 1,300+ yards
and double digit TDs.
Fantasy Rating: 91.5
| 11. T I M B R O
W N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1235 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
183 |
|
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Tim Brown is like the Energizer Bunny of wide receivers in the NFL.
He just keeps going and going and this year will be like no other
as fantasy players all over will be keeping a close eye on him.
But with Jerry Rice manning the #2 slot, Brown shouldn't have much
problem picking up another 1,200 yard, double digit TD season as
long as Tony Siragusa doesn't decide to do a 1 ½ twist, full
somersault ending in a belly flop on Rich Gannon again this year.
It is hard to gain more impressive credentials than this perennial
Pro Bowler as he is the epitome of consistency, durability and production.
Brown has hit the 1,000 yard mark for eight straight seasons and
has not missed a game since 1992. One of these years, age will take
its toll on Brown but don't expect any erosion this year.
Lackner's Scouting Report
Tim Brown is to WRs what Eddie George is to RBs. That is, he is
a model of consistency and durability. Brown has not missed a start
since he became the Raiders top WR back in 1993. (Brown was used
primarily as a return man between his rookie season in 1988 and
his 1993 breakout year.) Year in and year out, Brown catches about
80 passes for 1100 or so yards, making him one of the most dependable
and reliable receivers in the league. There may be legitimate concerns
about Brown's age (He'll be 35 when the season starts.), but he
is coming off a career high (11) in TDs. The Raiders have added
some new weapons in Jerry Rice and Charlie Garner, but I do not
expect Brown's numbers to be affected much if at all. In fact, you
might as well write it down that Brown will catch 80 balls for about
1100 yards, and will score 8-10 TDs.
Fantasy Rating: 91.0
| 12. E D Mc C A F
F R E Y: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1272 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
181 |
|
Cannon's Scouting Report
Speaking of a having a banner year... McCaffrey did that in 2000.
His red zone personality makes him a fine selection on any fantasy
team. He, not RSmith, is the end zone target that has Griese's attention.
Most consider him a Top-10 WR. If you like the strong projections
of the Bronco offense, you gotta target McCaffrey for repeated success.
Gonos' Scouting Report
If you need consistency out of you WRs (like you don't plan on drafting
another one for a few rounds later) then McCaffrey is the one you
want to draft. His 101 catches and 9 TDs were perfectly laid out.
He had 100 yards in five different games and had numerous 5-catch
games. My only question (unlike most o the other analysts in the
Fantasy Forecast) is the health of his QB Brian Griese who has yet
to play 16 games. But luckily for you, Steve Beuerlein signed on
as the best backup in the NFL and McCaffrey won't skip a beat if
Griese is replaced.
Fantasy Rating: 90.5
| 13. K E Y S H A W N J
O H N S O N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1187 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
178 |
|
Gonos' Scouting Report
Brad Johnson joins the fold and Clyde Christensen takes over the
offense. Two great items of news for Keyshawn owners. The coaches,
including Tony Dungy, have promised to try to get the ball to Key
more. The place he excels at the most is in the red zone where he
can reach over smaller defensive backs for scores and box them out
on fades. With this defense, the Bucs O will be on the field an
awful lot, and that means plenty of catches for Johnson.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
Personally, I think Keyshawn Johnson talks too much. He is arrogant,
cocky and seems to have a personal problem with Wayne Chrebet. I
think there are times when all of this will affect his team's play
on the field. If you can't focus on the game during the week, it
will cause problems on Sunday afternoons. However, from a Fantasy
standpoint, he is a damn talented wide receiver. When you put the
ball in his hands, he will make plays. Keyshawn Johnson has great
hands and great leaping ability. He can catch the ball when he does
not appear to be open. He has the ability to gain yards after the
catch. It is not a mistake that Tampa Bay had only two games with
35+ points in 2000 and both of those games Johnson had 100+ yards
and 1+ TDS. Johnson had a down year with Tampa Bay with only 874
receiving yards and 8 TDs. The arrival of another Johnson should
change this. Brad Johnson signed as a free agent this off-season.
Brad Johnson is a more consistent passer than Tampa Bay has ever
had. He possesses the ability to get the ball to his playmakers.
Johnson and Johnson will be a familiar connection before the 2001
season is over.
Fantasy Rating: 90.0
| 14. G E R M A N E C
R O W E L L: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1230 |
8 |
27 |
0 |
173 |
|
Ludwig's Scouting Report
The 2000 season was not very kind to Germane Crowell. He started
the season with Stoney Case throwing him the ball instead of Charlie
Batch. Batch only missed one regular game, but it was obvious that
he was out of synch. This was only the sign of bad things to come.
Next, Crowell suffered a broken foot on October 13th. This was an
injury that sidelined him for seven games and nine starts. By the
time Crowell was back in the lineup, he had new head coach in Gary
Moeller. Bobby Ross, who was the only head coach that Crowell had
known in the NFL, quit after the Lion's loss to Miami in week ten.
To make matters worse Charlie Batch played the last three games
of the season with very bruised ribs. Batch was less than effective.
Despite all of these factors, Germane Crowell still had 34 catches
for 430 yards in seven starts. Crowell is a big play receiver with
excellent size. He has explosive speed and great leaping ability
to excel on deep routes. In 2000, Batch played a lot worse than
he is capable of. His improved play in 2001 will lead to Crowell's
dominance on the fantasy football field. Germane Crowell has all
the skills to be an elite fantasy football wide receiver. He should
get 1200+ receiving yards and 8-10 TDs in 2001.
Bond's Scouting Report:
Crowell had a down year in 2000 after announcing his presence with
authority in 1999. I guess down is understating the fact that he
was miserable. He was injured, his quarterback stank the place up,
and he had no help from the other wide receivers. He has the size
and speed to excel in the West Coast offense but I'm a little concerned
with his ability to catch the ball. In 1999, he was third in the
NFL in dropped balls. Still, it's not like the Lions have any other
options. The other problem is Charlie Batch. Batch, when healthy,
is a decent quarterback but he is rarely healthy and was horrible
last season. Granted, he had little help as Herman Moore is done,
Johnny Morton can't be the No. 1, and Crowell was hurt. The West
Coast offense plays to his strength of quick reactions and shorter
passes but he has to stay erect - hey, stop that giggling. If Batch
is done, then in comes Jim Harbaugh. That should scare a few Lions'
fans. I'll take Crowell but we aren't forcing anything before mid
fourth round.
Fantasy Rating: 89.5
| 15. A M A N I T
O O M E R: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1160 |
9 |
28 |
0 |
172 |
|
Bond's Scouting Report
There is something that bothers me about Toomer. I can't put my
finger on it but I just never feel he is going to take it to the
next level. He is a nice No. 2 but that's all he is. He is just
a ball of odd stats to me. He didn't drop many balls but a guy his
size wasn't targeted in the red zone as often as I would think.
He had his problems with Jim Fassel, the coach for the Giants, and
seemed to get with the program down the stretch but I don't like
guys that have to be yelled at to get motivated since I can't get
them on the phone for a talking to. I also don't like the fact that
the Giants will miss Ike Hilliard for a bit this season meaning
that Amani is by himself being covered by a couple defenders. We
aren't talking Marvin Harrison here. Toomer is in the mix with a
dozen receivers that could be taken between the end of the third
and start of the sixth. We wouldn't look his way until the fifth
as we figure him for little growth.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Toomer is knocking on the door of the elite level wide receivers
of the game but he is still struggling to gain respect of alot of
people which is wrong, wrong, wrong. Toomer averaged just short
of 80 receptions each of the past two years and averaged over 1,100
yards in that span. A couple of the things that will hurt Toomer
and hold him back from reaching that elite level is the offensive
system he plays in over top Jimmy Hoffa's grave is not very wide-open
in nature and the guy throwing to him, Kerry Collins will never
be anything more than average. Toomer has also been tagged with
the injury label after tearing up his knee in his rookie year. Toomer
also has a problem with consistency as evidenced by his poor start
to last season only to become one of the most productive second
halfs in the league so if you draft him, you better also enjoy the
ups and downs.
Fantasy Rating: 89.5
| 16. J I M M Y S
M I T H: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1200 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
168 |
|
Cannon's Scouting Report
The always dependable Smith is not the available. After weeks of
offseason hospitalization for abdominal surgeries and follow up,
I would not suggest drafting Smith this summer. He's a fella that
is better off on your opponent's roster.
Lackner's Scouting Report
OK, here is a trivia question for you. What WR led the league in
receptions in the second half of the 90s and on into 2000? The answer:
Jimmy Smith.Since 1996, Smith has accounted for 450 catches and
6599 yards. Over the five year span that equates to an average of
90 catches for 1319 yards. With those kinds of numbers, you would
think that Smith would qualify as a top 5 fantasy WR. Not so fast.
As productive as Smith is, he is not a real TD threat -- which greatly
brings down his value, especially in all TD leagues. Smith, for
example, has NEVER scored double-digit TDs in a season. Now, he
should still be considered a fine option at WR because of his production
(ideally as your number 2 WR), but keep the TD history in mind on
draft day. Also, Smith is coming back from off-season abdominal
surgery. Buyer beware.
Fantasy Rating: 89.0
| 17. A N T O N I O F
R E E M A N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1114 |
9 |
10 |
0 |
166 |
|
Bond's Scouting Report
Forget the "He only catches touchdowns" for Cris Carter; Chris Berman
should be nauseating the masses with that tired phrase when Freeman
comes on the screen. While Carter actually caught one more score
in the red zone than Freeman, Freeman had almost 17-percent of his
targets when he was in the red zone. The rest of the day he couldn't
move his lard butt into free space. Freeman is why the NFL owners
don't want to give out guaranteed contracts because as soon as he
received one, he started down the path of retirement. And what has
happened because of his slovenly play is that he has brought Brett
Favre down with him. Lynyrd Skynyrd said it best about Freeman.
"Ooooh that smell Can't you smell that smell Ooooh that smell The
smell of death surrounds you" I'm not selecting him; I'm inflicting
him on my opponents.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Freeman has been somewhat of a disappointment lately. Freeman has
had two disappointing seasons in a row accumulating just 1986 yards
combined over the two years and that is not a good sign for this
former Pro Bowler. It even got so bad last season that even Bill
Schroeder had a better year yardage and reception wise. Freeman
may not be yesterday's used up trash quite yetbut until the Packers
develop a consistent threat opposite of Freeman that will keep defenses
honest, Freeman will continue to struggle this season and cannot
be counted on to be a fantasy team's #1 wide receiver. Freeman will
have to develop much better consistency in his game to be depended
on like he was in 1987 and 1988. He will have to rededicate himself
to being in better physical and mental shape since he doesn't have
the speed to break away from defenders.
Fantasy Rating: 88.5
| 18. M A R C U S R
O B I N S O N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1090 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
|
Gonos' Scouting Report
Another case of a player not living up to his 2000 expectations,
Robinson comes into this season after a rough year with only 55
catches for 738 yards and five scores. This year remains a little
murky for Robinson as he battles back problems (never a good thing
for a tall receiver) and has a three-headed M&M&M QB throwing
to him in Miller/Matthews/McNown. The running back situation is
also up in the air with Anthony Thomas and Skip Hicks coming in
to vie with James Allen for some time. We like Robinson a lot, we're
just not sure when he'll be able to produce again.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
Marcus Robinson has been on both sides of the coin. He has been
from the World League to NFL stardom. He was drafted by the Chicago
Bears in the 4th round of the 1997 draft. He did not play in his
rookie season at all. Robinson spent the 1998 spring playing for
the World League. All he did was become the World League MVP that
year. Robinson finally got his chance in the 1999 season and took
full opportunity of it. He had 1400 receiving yards and 9 TDS in
only 11 starts. Unfortunately, Robinson was unable to duplicate
his success in the 2000 season. The lack of a solid passing game
and injuries seemed to hurt Robinson. However, he still was able
to get 738 receiving yards and 5 TDs in 11 starts last season. Robinson
possesses Randy Moss size and speed. He is very smooth when running
deep routes. If Chicago quarterbacks can get him the ball, he will
be a dominant force in Fantasy Football. One concern is his off-season
back troubles. This may be a risk for fantasy owners, but it could
be well worth it.
Fantasy Rating: 88.0
| 19. M U H S I N M
U H A M M A D: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1130 |
8 |
0 |
0 |
161 |
|
Cummings' Scouting Report
While some owners loved the 1000+ yards he produced last year, there
were a few more who hated his low touchdown total. However, that
is a moot point. With Beurlein gone, who will throw him the ball?
Is Jeff Lewis the answer, or is Chris Weinke the answer? Lewis has
the nod for now, and he is familiar with what Muhammad can do. The
other wideout position is up in the air as well, with Patrick Jeffers
returning from a leg injury and Donald Hayes, Jeffers' replacement
from last year, battling for the spot. Then there is the question
of who will be the starting running back? There are a lot of questions
surrounding this team, which does not spell good news for Muhammad.
However, when they throw the ball, Muhammad is by far the best option
of the group. If anyone will produce, Muhammad is the best pick.
Lackner's Scouting Report
Muhammad's reception totals have literally improved each and every
year he has been in the league. If that trend continues, fantasy
owners who are lucky enough to draft Muhammad, will be glad they
did: Last season he caught 102 passes! Muhammad is your proverbial
possession WR. He has a knack for getting open, and he does not
often dribble the ball. He will undoubtedly play the same role this
year with such youth and inexpereince at the QB position. Indeed,
Muhammad could be the best friend a young QB ever had. That could
equate once again to receptions nearing (or even exceeding) the
century mark. Just don't expect a great deal of scoring from Muhammad,
who only managed to get 6 of his 102 receptions last season into
the endzone.
Fantasy Rating: 87.5
| 20. D A V I D B
O S T O N: |
| REC YDS |
REC TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 1220 |
6 |
20 |
0 |
160 |
|
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Boston is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL but
that should be changing soon. Like Amani Toomer, he has to deal
with a very average quarterback at best but unlike Toomer, the offensive
floodgates could be opened wide this season. With his size, speed
and athletic ability, Boston has a ton of upside that is just bursting
to be put on display. Boston has the speed of a track star and the
leaping ability of a high jumper or, dare I say, almost like Randy
Moss. Bottom line with Boston is if Jake Plummer is bad, then Boston
will be average but if Plummer plays even a decent game, then Boston
will explode on the scene.
Cummings' Scouting Report
While as not as widely known as the popular "Stud Running Back
Theory," nor as accurate, there is the 3-year Wideout theory,
which states that wide receivers take 3 years to develop into stars.
This is Boston's third year. This would mean that this is his breakout
year, where he surpasses all numbers he has previously put up on
the board. What are those numbers he would then eclipse? Last year
he posted an impressive 71 receptions, over 1100 yards and 7 touchdowns.
With all the inconsistencies of the Arizona offense, there will
be one constant - Boston. He is poised for that breakout year. How
much of a breakout will depend somewhat on Plummer's continued development.
Some people may think that Plummer is the cornerstone of the Arizona
offense. I don't think so. Boston is the player Arizona should build
around.
Fantasy Rating: 87.5
I hope you enjoyed the Top Twenty Wide Receiver Forecast. The rest
of the Wide Receiver Rankings and analysis can be found at: FantasyRef
Forecast
:: comments to tim
ludwig
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