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7/3/01
Email Tim
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Over the next few weeks, we'll be analyzing a good portion of every
position. We've assigned numerous writers to cover every player
we ranked so you'll get multiple opinions of 150 players. We've
also tallied up the average projections and rankings for each position
as well.
One of the best tools is the fantasy values that each player has
assigned so you'll have a great idea of how big the drop-offs are
at each position.
FantasyRef is sponsoring
the whole project.
The Writers involved in the FantasyRef Forecast will be:
- Tim Ludwig - FantasyRef Forecast Editor
- Gary Bellinger - FantasyRef Writer
- Terry Cannon - First
and Web
- Mark Bond - JackPotSports.com
- David Gonos - FantasyRef Forecast Owner
We will rank the players in the following system:
- Every 10 yards rushing or receiving is worth one fantasy point
- Every 20 passing yards is worth one fantasy point
- Every rushing or receiving touchdown is worth six fantasy points
- Every passing touchdown is worth six fantasy points
- Every extra point is worth one fantasy point
- Every field goal is worth three fantasy points
| K U R T W A R N
E R: |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 4595 |
44 |
63 |
1 |
418 |
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Gonos' Scouting Report
Let it be known: a broken left pinky finger is a fluke. The concussion
he suffered in December has probably happened to at least 80% of
the players in the NFL. Do not let these lame factors be the reason
you choose a different quarterback on draft day. Kurt Warner WILL
break Dan Marino's single-season TD record within the next three
years. Here's why: More offensive weapons and a much better offensive
game plan than Marino had in 1984. A running back who is just as
likely to take a swing pass 90 yards as he is a pitch. Three incredible
receivers, one stud vet, one stud future star and one return-man
with speed like a cartooned rodent. He threw for 300 yards eight
times last year… He only started 11 games. Trent Green is out of
the minds of coaches and fans now, so Warner will not give up time
to keep Green sharp. If I'm starting an NFL team, give me Manning.
But in fantasy? Ride Warner's horse all the way.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
How can Kurt Warner not be the number one ranked fantasy quarterback?
He runs the most potent offense in NFL history. He has the best
multipurpose back in the NFL behind him. Add two Pro Bowl wide receivers
into the mix and you have a recipe for NFL records to be broken.
Warner has very good arm strength, makes great decisions and is
extremely accurate. He also has a great presence and toughness in
the pocket. I just do not see any way he will not put up big numbers
barring injuries. A taste of what to expect from Warner in the 2001
season are the numbers he posted in the first six games of last
season before he got injured. He averaged 370 passing yards and
2.8 touchdowns a game. Fantasy Statistics that are this good cannot
lie.
Fantasy Rating: 100.0
| P E Y T O N M A
N N I N G |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 4448 |
36 |
98 |
1 |
382 |
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Ludwig's Scouting Report
If I was an NFL General Manager and I had to pick one player to
build my team around, Manning would be my pick. He has everything
you want in a franchise quarterback. In fact, I believe Manning
is the safest pick in a fantasy draft. He will get 4000+ passing
yards and 25+ passing touchdowns. In Manning's first three years,
he has started 48 out of 48 games. That is what I call durable.
The scariest part about Peyton Manning is he will get better. He
is always trying to improve on every part of his game. He expects
perfection out of himself and his teammates. The one thing lacking
in the Indianapolis passing attack is a consistent second wide receiver
to complement Marvin Harrison. The Colts drafted Reggie Wayne in
round one to supply Manning with one. If Reggie Wayne pans out,
Manning will be impossible to stop in 2001.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
He doesn't have the rocket launcher
arm or deep arsenal to throw to like Kurt Warner. He doesn't have
the dynamic athletic ability that you see with Daunte Culpepper.
So how does Peyton Manning do it? The guy is incredibly precise,
consistent and is very smart about getting the job done. In two
years, Manning has started all 32 games including every single snap
for the Colts in his rookie season. Manning was the 4th-youngest
QB selected for his first Pro Bowl 1971 ranking behind Marino, Bledsoe,
and Favre. Manning also became only the 12th quarterback to throw
a touchdown pass in 20+ games, completing at least one TD in 27
straight games. He threw for 26 touchdowns in each of his first
two seasons while cutting his INT total down from 28 to 15 and there's
no reason to assume he can't duplicate that by reducing it further
while increasing his TD totals. The guy isn't flashy; he just gets
the job done. What puts Manning ahead of others are intangibles
like leadership, maturity, stability onfield savvy.
Fantasy Rating: 97.0
| D A U N T E C U
L P E P P E R |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3695 |
30 |
403 |
6 |
381 |
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Gonos' Scouting Report
While we have him ranked high with nice projections, I'll be
the first to warn everyone that he could be a big downgrade from
last year. Let me first say that FantasyRef.com was a HUGE Culpepper
advocate in last year's preseason, and even suggested taking him
in the third round if other owner's were looking at him too. We
pointed to factors such as his collegiate record for completion
percentage in his senior year, his incredible array of talent
around him, his unbelievable size for his position and the misnomer
that he played for a small school. All of those reasons combined
made him a great pick and one that no doubt brought many into
their playoffs. But now the tables have turned a bit. Now he is
SUPPOSED to be as good as he was last year. Now fantasy owners
will draft him in the first round and EXPECT these numbers. But
we have to warn you. Things have changed.
- The loss of Robert Smith cannot be overlooked - Smith's running
game and ability to stay healthy was essential to Culpepper's
success. Without it, teams will be able to focus on 'Pepper's
passing game while shadowing him for the run.
- Teams will not overlook him now. Last year, the defense thought
of Moss first, Smith second and maybe even Carter third. Now Culpepper
and Moss are the main focuses and will be treated with the utmost
respect. He won't get the yards per rush he had last year.
- With that focus comes pain. If rookie Michael Bennett does
not provide the team with some sort of rushing game, Culpepper
will get crushed. Teams WILL account for his speed and he is too
big of a target to not hit squarely. He will continue to tuck
the ball every now and then, more often now, and will be punished.
I expect him to miss at least three games this season.
But, with all of that said and done, it's hard to pass up someone
with that kind of talent. I suggest STRONGLY, that you take him
after Warner and Manning, and take QUALITY backup early to insure
your investment.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
Daunte Culpepper surprised more than a few fantasy owners in 2000.
The young man from University of Central Florida showed the fantasy
world that he belonged among the Elite. Culpepper passed for 3937
yards and 33 touchdowns last season. As if that was not enough,
he also rushed for another 470 yards and 6 touchdowns. This is what
makes Culpepper an extra special fantasy quarterback. He can produce
for you from the air or on the ground. He possesses a combination
of size (6'4" and 265 pounds), strength, mobility and speed
never seen before in an NFL quarterback. It doesn't hurt that he
also has Randy Moss and Cris Carter to throw to. The only downside
for Daunte Culpepper is he has only done it for one single season.
Too many owners remember the whole Kordell Stewart tragedy. The
one thing they are overlooking is Culpepper is not another Kordell
Stewart.
Fantasy Rating: 97.0
| B R I A N G R I
E S E |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3855 |
32 |
190 |
2 |
351 |
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Ludwig's Scouting Report
If not for a shoulder injury, we would be talking about Brian Griese
in the same breath with Warner, Manning and Culpepper. Griese put
up some great numbers in Shanahan's offense. In the nine starts
before his injury, Griese averaged 297 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns
a game. Over a sixteen game schedule, that would equate to 4752
passing yards and 34 touchdowns. Griese does not possess the great
arm strength or mobility of a Culpepper, but he knows when and where
to throw the ball. Griese knows the game inside and out. This is
a benefit from being a former NFL quarterback's son. With likes
of Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey, Terrell Davis and Mike Anderson in his
offense, Griese should thrive in this offense. Believe or not, Brian
Griese is one of the better steals in fantasy drafts for this upcoming
season.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Griese will have no shortage of targets this season with both Rod
Smith and Ed McCaffery good candidates to go over 100 receptions
again. Griese is coming off surgery in the off-season for a separated
AC joint in his right (throwing) shoulder. Last year, Griese completed
a franchise record 63.4% in 10 games. As long as he can avoid the
injury bug, Griese is the best bet outside of the top three to lead
anyone's fantasy team to success. His TD/Int (19-4) ratio last season
of 4.75:1 is second in NFL history to Steve Deberg's 5.75:1 in Kansas
City in 1990. Given his pedigree and the offensive talent surrounding
him to go along with his grit and determination, there is no reason
to think he won't continue his upward progression.
Fantasy Rating: 93.0
| D O NO V A N M C
N A B B |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3460 |
24 |
507 |
5 |
350 |
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Bellinger's Scouting Report
The jury was out on McNabb as a rookie but now even hardened
Eagle fans at construction sites all across southeastern Pennsylvania
are thrilled they chose McNabb over Ricky Williams. I guess its
better to have a NFL MVP runner-up than an injury prone running
back with an anxiety disorder. McNabb was an offensive juggernaut
for the Eagles, which is all the more amazing given the lack of
support at wide receiver and the loss of Duce Staley in the backfield
for most of the season. McNabb accounted for 74.6% of the Eagles
net offense (3,365 passing yards minus 262 sack yards plus 629
rushing yards). With Staley back to full speed and a somewhat
improved wide receiver corps, McNabb won't likely disappoint.
Gonos' Scouting Report
There are a few things to remember about Donovan McNabb that help
explain last year's breakout success. Like Culpepper and Manning
before him, McNabb was a four-year starter in college. As a matter
of fact, he eve red-shirted a year behind Marvin Graves then competed
with Kevin Johnson (yes, the stud WR of the Browns) for the starting
QB job at Syracuse. So McNabb was not on the same ground as Tim
Couch, Akili Smith or any of the other young QBs to go early these
last few years. He had a resume, experience and a career before
joining the Eagles. He was not merely a prospect. That said…
I still had doubts about him as a pro. (And I'm a Syracuse fan!)
The Eagles came out of nowhere last year on McNabb's back (or arm
and legs) and went on to beat the Bucs in the playoffs at home.
All of this without the talents of their offense's main focus, Duce
Staley who is now back from a knee injury. The Eagles will NOT surprise
anyone this year. Their schedule will be tougher, and they will
try again to rely on Staley's efforts, not McNabb's, to win games.
Expect a drop in numbers all around, but another productive season
behind center for McNabb.
Fantasy Rating: 93.0
| J E F F G A R C
I A |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3795 |
29 |
300 |
2 |
347 |
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Bellinger's Scouting Report
Garcia was one of the surprise packages last year but enters
this season with some question marks in the talent surrounding
him. Garcia still has Owens around to support him but if J.J.
Stokes and an emerging Tai Streets are unable to make up for the
loss of Jerry Rice, that will hurt his totals. Garcia will also
need to see an emergence from either Kevan Barlow and/or Paul
Smith at the running back position or opposing defenses will be
able to just pin their ears back and rush him without worry of
a running threat. If that's the case, Garcia will need to use
all of his elusive ability and quickness of feet to avoid the
pass rush and it may be a long season full of aches. Garcia won't
likely crack the top 5 QBs with this support but if he doesn't
get that support, he will find it difficult to stay in the top
10 or even top 15 quarterbacks, Terrell Owens or not.
Gonos' Scouting Report
Remember how muddled everyone's opinion on this guy was last year?
And after Owens' mediocre '99 campaign it didn't look like he had
the talent around him. But here he s, fresh off an unbelievable
year in which he came in third in the TD race with 31 total in the
air (and another 4 on the ground!) His TD-INT ration is by far the
best in the league at 31:10, a few steps ahead of second place Rich
Gannon with his 28:11. He's a great running QB and was one of the
toughest to sack last year. His 414 yards ranks him just below Culpepper,
Gannon and McNabb. But (there's always a "but"), the Niners
aren't the same squad as last year as Garcia has lost the offensive
skills of Charlie Garner (one of the best receiving RBs in the league)
and Jerry Rice (the greatest WR to play the game)… Hmmm…
That can't be good. But he still has Terrell Owens and hopefully
Garrison Hearst, Paul Smith or rookie Kevan Barlow will come through
at RB. We say roll the dice and break out your lucky John Brodie
doll for Garcia success in '01.
Fantasy Rating: 92.0
| R I C H G A N N
O N |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3692 |
28 |
377 |
2 |
346 |
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Gonos' Scouting Report
Well, I'll tell you when we were right (Culpepper) and when we
were wrong (McNabb) and now I'm going to tell you about when we
were smokin' funny stuff. Last year, I was against drafting Rich
Gannon as a No.1 QB. He was a lucky stiff with a great opportunity
in Gruden's offense in '99. No way this career backup could duplicate
that kind of success. And we were right. He didn't. (Actually,
he did even better in '00!) He ended up with more TDs in less
attempts, almost twice the rushing yardage and rushing TDs and
a hair better completion percentage. Now we'll give you reasons
to jump all over this bandwagon and bring a lunch! Gannon threw
for 3430 yards and 28 TDs. Now add Charlie Garner, a top five
receiving RB, Roland Williams (an under-utilized TE from St. Louis)
and Jerry Rice (the best WR since Goliath caught that rock with
his forehead). Don't forget to remove that pass-dropping wormhole
known as Ricky Dudley and you have yourself a great season in
the making! The only fall off here will be in his rushing yards
and TDs, as Gruden will have to find carries for Garner AND Tyrone
Wheatley this season.
Ludwig's Scouting Report
Rich Gannon is another one of those stories of a player blossoming
late in his career. Gannon seems to be a perfect fit for the Oakland
style of the West Coast offense. He is a good decision maker. He
knows when to stay in the pocket and when to run with the ball.
His mobility seems to be the extra dimension that gives defenses
fits. In fact, in addition to passing for 1823 yards and 18 touchdowns
in the last 8 games of 2000, Gannon also ran for another 293 yards.
Gannon will give a fantasy team that extra scoring punch because
of his mobility. Age tends to be too much of a factor when rating
fantasy players in a non-keeper league. Rich Gannon was the number
four-rated quarterback in a normal performance league in the 2000
season. He is just one of those players that keep getting better
but still undervalued.
Fantasy Rating: 92.0
| B R E T T F A V
R E |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3932 |
28 |
128 |
1 |
327 |
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Ludwig's Scouting Report
It was not that long ago that fantasy owners were grabbing Brett
Favre as the first overall pick in fantasy drafts. Is Brett Favre
worse than he was in Green Bay's Super Bowl years? Actually, he
still has all the physical skills that made him a fantasy star.
The problem is Green Bay is not the same team that they were in
1996 and 1997. The only good wide receiver for Favre to throw to
is Antonio Freeman. Freeman has seemed to lack the concentration
and work ethic to stay one of the best though. Favre had to break
in a rookie tight end in the 2000 season. Green Bay also has had
troubles keeping once fantasy stud Dorsey Levens on the field due
to injury problems. Even with all of this against Favre, he still
has had seven straight years of 3800+ passing yards and 20+ touchdowns.
Things are finally looking up for Green Bay. Freeman seems to be
ready to dedicate himself to work this offseason. Ahmad Green is
now in the starting role after gaining 1734 total yards and 13 touchdowns
in place of Levens. All signs point towards a better season for
this year. Expect to see more of the Favre of old in 2001.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Favre looks like he could make a big return to form and that could
mean a big steal for some fantasy owners as others may view Favre
in a hesitant, uncertain light. Favre threw for 3,812 yards last
year and managed to cut down his INT total down to 16 from 23 in
1999. So far this year, he hasn't experienced any problems with
tendonitis in his elbow that have plagued him like they have in
the past couple of years, partly due to a decreased amount of repetitions
the team has him throwing as compared to previous years. Favre is
truly in the gunslinger mold that believes he can hit any target,
no matter how small, and that has both a positive and negative effect
on his stats. Still, there is far more upside to Favre and like
a gunslinger, he is definitely worth a gamble if you are not interested
in gambling on a quarterback in the first round of your draft.
Fantasy Rating: 89.0
| T R E N T G R E
E N |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3662 |
25 |
165 |
2 |
311 |
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Bellinger's Scouting Report
Trent Green looks like he is going to be at the head of an offensive
aerial attack, which is a big departure from Chiefs football of
a couple years ago. I expect Green to be a consistent producer
this season with reliable targets like Derrick Alexander and Tony
Gonzalez along with Sylvester Morris. So far, the Chiefs have
treated Green with kid gloves after undergoing off-season knee
surgery. Previously, Green missed the entire 1999 season with
reconstructive surgery on his left knee. Last season, Green threw
for just over 2,000 yards in 6 starts, so he has the arm to produce
solid fantasy stats but one should proceed with caution for the
moment with Green until he shows through the rest of training
camp and preseason that his left knee will hold up to the strain
of competition.
Gonos' Scouting Report
Only two years since coming over from D.C. to take over Dick
Vermeil's Ram offense with newly acquired Marshall Faulk, up-and-down
veteran Isaac Bruce and highly touted rookie WR Torry Holt, Green
is racking up the Welcome Wagon points once again as Vermeil brings
him into town AGAIN. But this time, it's Kansas City, Kansas City,
here he comes. Green played very well last year in Kansas City,
but he was one of the most sacked QBs in the league and that may
continue in K.C. Luckily Rob Johnson was even worse! According
to our stats provider TwoMinuteWarning.com, Trent Green was sacked
an amazing 9% of all of pass plays last year with St. Louis. (By
comparison, Rob Johnson went down 13% of his pass plays... He
had turf stains on his back...) Green did throw an average of
two TDs per game with the Rams and is a decent QB. But don't expect
anything like his what we wanted from him in St. Louis. His surrounding
staff can hang with anyone. Tony Gonzalez resides as the best
Tight End this side of Kournikova. And Derrick Alexander returns
as the No.1 WR after a very nice season with fellow Wolverine
Elvis Grbac tossing the ball to him. But, Priest Holmes is no
Marshall Faulk. And we'll see how that affects Green's game.
Fantasy Rating: 87.0
| E L V I S G R B
A C |
| PASS YDS |
PASS TDS |
RUSH YDS |
RUSH TDS |
FF PTS |
| 3648 |
25 |
70 |
1 |
295 |
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Ludwig's Scouting Report
In my efforts to trade Elvis Grbac in a dynasty league this offseason,
I found out one very important thing. Grbac's value is low. How
can this be? He just came off of a career high of 4169 yards passing
and 28 touchdowns. The problem is owners are under the impression
Grbac going to Baltimore means Grbac will throw the ball 15-20 times
a game. Baltimore is run oriented offense after all, right? The
one problem with that is Brian Billick did not go quarterback hunting
because he needs a football caddy for Jamal Lewis. He signed Grbac
to that big deal because Billick loves to throw the ball. He knew
he could not do so with Dilfer, so he ran the ball. If you remember
Billick was the offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings
in 1998 when they threw for over 4500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.
So do not be surprised if Grbac ends up a top ten quarterback at
the end of 2001.
Bellinger's Scouting Report
Grbac is certainly a better option than Trent Dilfer, for both the
Baltimore Ravens and fantasy owners alike. According to reports,
Grbac is adapting well to the Raven's system but still needs time
to adapt to Brian Billick's system. The question is whether coach
Brian Billick sticks with the conservative approach from last year
or returns to his offensive roots and lets Grbac open up the Ravens
offense. One positive in Grbac's corner will be the presence of
Shannon Sharpe since Grbac relied so much on Tony Gonzalez in Kansas
City. The question will be whether or not he will be able to bring
more out of the wide receivers, led by Qadry Ismail and 2nd-year
wideout Travis Taylor. Grbac has a lot of arm strength and is a
big strong quarterback. Grbac put it all together last year going
over the 4,000 yard mark for the first time in his career throwing
for 28 TDs but will be hard pressed to match those totals without
a bona fide deep threat.
Fantasy Rating: 85.0
I hope you enjoyed the Top Ten Quarterback Forecast. The rest
of the Quarterback Rankings and analysis can be found at: FantasyRef
Forecast
:: comments to tim
ludwig
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